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Forums - Sales Discussion - [Final Update] 2014 vs. 2015 end of year year on year showdown - Home console edition

Sorry it's a bit late. Busy day and all.

Update 15 Nov 2015: I've added in what I have worked out to be the numbers for the 24th of October taken from the monthy totals minus the 3 weeks we already know. Some hefty adjustment to the month, especially for PS4, dropping its total to below 1 million for the month and putting it substantially down YoY. Rather a surprising result for a price cut, but as observed the LE bundles releasing in November might be partly or mostly responsible for this. Time will tell.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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Good job man.  

 

I think all three consoles have a good chance of being Up YoY.



So we appear to have more or less final numbers for October now.

One month down 2 to do. October will be the lowest selling month of the quarter. But do we have anything we can take from this? Xb one is up slightly from last year, but last October was pre-price cut, and this October is Halo 5. Being up 55K is not that much considering these factors. There is a good chance Xb one winds up down in November by a lot more than 55K. I would say chances are Xb one is looking like being down YoY unless MS does something pretty magical for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

October looks bad for PS4 being down YoY even though there was a price cut fairly early in the month. On the plus side there wasn;t much by way of software to push PS4 forward. PS4 is down 130K, but November is looking likely to be up YoY by a lot more than 130K, the price cut will really kick in this month and next month, and the CoD and SW LE bundles look like they will be huge. BO3 had a big launch by all standards other than it's own best ever efforst on 360 / PS3, so it definitely shifted a lot of hardware, and it looks like it might have got almost all main CoD fans into the next generation. If the UK is anything to go by only about 9% of CoD players are left still playing on last gen hardware. All that benefits PS4 more than Xb one. On Balance I think PS4 is looking to be up YoY, but 130K is not a small deficit to make up.

Wii U is marginally up YoY. There's a Splatoon bundle, but I have no real idea how that's going to benefit hardware sales. Wii U might keep on cruising to be up YoY by 5-10%



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Bumping to put back t the top of my buddy.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

I was kinda dissappointed by the NPD numbers for ps4 last month, especially regards the price drop. Maybe 50$ isn't significant enough? I think it'll be difficult to beat 2014.



Game of the year 2017 so far:

5. Resident Evil VII
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
3. Uncharted: The Lost Legacy
2. Horizon Zero Dawn
1. Super Mario Odyssey

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Updated for 23 November. The first really >100K YoY one week deficit. Not surprisingly it's the Xb one given the ACU bundle and price cut is in full effect.

Still very strange that PS4 is almost dead even with itself this time last year. We have a $50 price cut in effect and Fallout 4. Sure Xb one has the marketing for it, but it's still going to do work for PS4.

Wii U essentially flat, but it is always slightly ahead of last year, so it is on track for being slightly up.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

binary solo said:
Updated for 23 November. The first really >100K YoY one week deficit. Not surprisingly it's the Xb one given the ACU bundle and price cut is in full effect.

Still very strange that PS4 is almost dead even with itself this time last year. We have a $50 price cut in effect and Fallout 4. Sure Xb one has the marketing for it, but it's still going to do work for PS4.

Wii U essentially flat, but it is always slightly ahead of last year, so it is on track for being slightly up.

Last year we had destiny wjich did a miracle, but the COD and Star wars bundle will make it outsell 2014 besides at the rate it is selling now I doubt Sony has the right to complain with 35 million (shipped at least) at the end of this year being a given. After that it is going up because Uncharted and Horizon will boost sales pretty hard next year.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

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Qwark said:
binary solo said:
Updated for 23 November. The first really >100K YoY one week deficit. Not surprisingly it's the Xb one given the ACU bundle and price cut is in full effect.

Still very strange that PS4 is almost dead even with itself this time last year. We have a $50 price cut in effect and Fallout 4. Sure Xb one has the marketing for it, but it's still going to do work for PS4.

Wii U essentially flat, but it is always slightly ahead of last year, so it is on track for being slightly up.

Last year we had destiny wjich did a miracle, but the COD and Star wars bundle will make it outsell 2014 besides at the rate it is selling now I doubt Sony has the right to complain with 35 million (shipped at least) at the end of this year being a given. After that it is going up because Uncharted and Horizon will boost sales pretty hard next year.

Destiny was rather a non-entity for hardware sales by this time last year. The bundle was just a plain white unit so nothing particularly special to push it. Wheras we have the CoD special edition bundle as well as some very hefty software to push it this year, AND a $50 lower price. I think the selling factors this year are much stronger than the selling factors last year, especially since 7th gen consoles got a heavily gimped version of CoD. CoD fans still had reasonable justification for sticking with 7th gen last year, but this year there is a major incentive to make the move to the 8th gen, And we've seen on Amazon that the CoD bundle has remained very high in the rankings for the whole of November so far.

And when you break it down by region PS4 is significantly down YoY in Europe, about 26K down.Unless ACU was particularly bog for PS4 hardware last year I don't know how it can be down YoY by that much. Either VGC is lowballing PS4 or that much predicted 8th gen slowdown is happening.

But the other depressing news for some is going to be when the 7th Nov global gets reported for XB one. Just looking at USA numbers for that week last year here's the difference.

2015

XOne 148,367 (+8%) 8,652,277

2014

XOne 232,445 (+189%) 3,939,799

84K down just in the USA. Ouch. Assuming VGC is close to accurate with this Nov NPD is going to be really down for Xb one, with a combined 120K YoY deficit for the first two weeks of November. If MS doesn't really care about performance relative to PS4, they should care about performance relative to itself. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

All right. Updated 7 Nov numbers.

Wii U substantially up YoY. Wii U is looking to have a solid holiday by its standards.

Xb one massively down 2 weeks in a row. And while being 200K down after both CoD and Halo have had their main effects on hardware, PS4 is apparently down by not all that much less. That seems very hard to believe all things considered. I would not be surprised to see PS4 adjustments.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix