I am getting ready to launch a weather prediction market pitch on Indiegogo. It is called Raindance Weather (more info - www.raindancewx.com). The Indiegogo isn't live yet - I need to design a Youtube video pitch first.
Would any of you use that?
The idea is anyone who registers can bet on seasonal weather outlooks for the USA. How much snow will you get? How hot will it be in the summer compared to normal? Anything verifiable could be "bettable" with a fake currency tied to a user account.
That type of thing. Would you all be willing to spread the word and/or contribute to the Indiegogo camapign? For those of you who remember, I used to work here, and in the old days, there was a site similar to Vgchartz called TheSimExchange - user would bet on expected sales outcomes for videogames with the TheSimsExchange.
Raindance would be more similar to TheSimExchange than to VGChartz, but I think the results could be accurate. The plan, if I can raise enough cash, is to have the best users rewarded for making accurate (fake currency) bets while the users making the least accurate guesses would be phased out.
One of the reasons I want to do this is I tried it with my co-workers last year. Between the ten of us we were able to come up with pretty accurate snowfall projections for Albuquerque for Nov-Apr, except in February. I believe with more people and weighting the consolidated forecasts would perform well. Weighting in this case would mean that if you bet five fake dollars on an outcome that didn't verify...you'd lose five fake dollars. But if your forecast was good, you'd get some kind of reward. In time, the bad predictors would go "bankrupt".
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu