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Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Halo 5 will sell 7.3 Million this year (Prediction)

Will it?

Yes 126 10.05%
 
No 438 34.93%
 
Maybe 93 7.42%
 
You're crazy 317 25.28%
 
I don't know 24 1.91%
 
Halo is dead 225 17.94%
 
team chief 24 1.91%
 
team locke 7 0.56%
 
Total:1,254
AsGryffynn said:
AEGRO said:

Why are we insisting Amazon is the only place people buy consoles now?


Because Amazon has a 100% Correct Record of predicting the Best Selling Console of the month. 

Their console. If they have a best selling console, odds are that it sold just as nicely everywhere else, but it's not safe just to use them as an indicator...



100% Correct ratio. 

You will have a case when they are wrong, IF it happens sometimes in the future. In the meantime, they are the perfect reference to know which console sold the best, and which version of that console.





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AsGryffynn said:
SWORDF1SH said:

If you want to say that Halo 5 "outperformed" Halo 4 then that's up to you but simple saying that one released on a bigger install base then explain a the math behind it. You know you can say "Halo 4 had 6 times the user base so therefore time Halo 5 sales by 6", right? In fact you can look at all the franchise and the majority of releases throughout a gen do not rise in percentage anywhere near the console's. So stop trying to push the success should be meesured by attach rate.

Besides Halo should of drove XB1 sales, not holiday bf and Christmas sales, barely winning October in US (Halo launch) would of been unheard of in the past and before this generation started nobody would ever though that could happen. This is Halo's biggest failure.

No. Halo 4 had 6 times more Xbox 360s to sell on. By mere probability, casual sales had to represent a larger margin of them. There's also the whole thing with Halo 3 fans buying the game. We have a name for that, it's called a "captive audience".

As for the percentage part? Figures, since from H3 to H4 the percentage declined along with sales. It's true that they do not rise once the generation starts, but that is since the users keep on growing and the game sales fall shorter of their target by percent. For the first installment in a new console, it is a perfectly reasonable way of gauging interest. If Halo 4 had outsold it's predecessor, then I'd understand your concern. It did not. We're stuck with a sequel that sold 5 million units LESS... and it's percentage declined. I was thinking on using the original Halo, but that is unfair, unlike the H4-H5 comparison, were they are both developed by the same company and are part of the same character arc.

And you really ought to clean your ears. Have you even heard what I am saying? Only Halo 3 moved a sizeable amount of systems. And even then?

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/39355/Global/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42309/Global/

And for fun, here we can see Halo 4's console sales...

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41224/Global/

The "failure" outdid the most solid entry in the entire series. Or do you have no explanation for that? I'll give you a really good one. Prestige. Bungie had a lot of it.

Numbers for the series are down, but the console's are up... why is that?

I can agree with that. It seemed at the time that Halo pushed the 360 a lot more than that but figures don't lie.

Maybe Halo is doing fine but when you have threads like this and it falls way short, you kinda concentrate on the crazy 7.3M figure and it makes Halo sales seem worse than they are.



AsGryffynn said:

 


So...what is your actual point? So far I've see you say Halo 5 is going to outsell Halo 4(1), that Halo 5 is "outperforming" Halo 4 because right at this very moment it's attachment rate is higher (though it won't stay that way)(2), and then you implied that somehow Halo 6 will have a better attachment rate than Halo 4 even though the evidence has shown that games that launch on a larger userbase typically have a lower attachment rate(3). Oh, and you keep making this assertion that the instal base for Halo 4 was 6 times higher than it was for Halo 5, which is just factually untrue(4).

Are you trying to prove that Halo is doing great and is in a position of strength? Because it's not. Halo 5 is the lowest scoring mainline Halo game, the slowest selling mainline Halo game that we have numbers for, and will end up with the lowest attachment rate of any mainline Halo game.

Halo is weaker now than it's ever been.

1."Since it is officially outperforming Halo 4 and that's WITHOUT digital, odds are it will outsell its predecessor..."

2."Outperforming as in performance, not sales. You can't expect 20 million Xbox One owners to buy what 80 million did..."

3."Well duh, nobody likes old news. Halo 6 might not agree though..."

4."It's gamers were also 6 times more than they are now..." Just a heads up, it's actually like...4.5 times as many.

So I'll ask again, what is your point?



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

AsGryffynn said:



Why are we insisting Amazon is the only place people buy consoles now?

GTA V, on the next gen is a Remaster, the Original will aways out-sold it,  Install Base is Meanless and Fanbase is what is Important, you Know that when Resident Evil, Street Fighter, Tekken, Final Fantasy, Dragon's Dogma, sell A lot more on Playstation 3, even on America some titles out-sold the Xbox 360 Version, because the Fan base of those games are on Playstation, same with Call of Duty, it sold more than 8 Millions on Playstation and this already is more than Half the Install base of the Xbox One, this shows that the Shooter fanbase are now with Playstation, because Xbox Fucked up, you Know that when were less than Half Playstation 3 on America (majority Shooter Market) than Xbox 360, and now there are more Playstation 4, than Xbox One, on the America (Despite this Fact, Xbox, Never Maneged to out-sell Playstation on Japan).





Swordmasterman said:
AsGryffynn said:
Farsala said:
AsGryffynn said:

But that was Halo 3. I don't think any Halo will surpass it unless the amount of Xbox console owners surpasses the 100M mark.

NO ONE can compare the third entry to any other Halo. We all know we will never see one as good as H3. The only fair comparison is 4, since it was the only other game developed by 343i, and it matched Halo 3, but it had 6 times the gamers to sell to.

IN fact, since the amount of users fluctuates, using anything other than percentages to gauge a games success is foolish at best and laughable at worst. Or are you telling me that this Halo had to sell like H3?



Comparing it only to Halo 4 is convenient for your argument and is definitely not the fair comparison. So I reject that.

 

If Halo 5 sold like Halo 3 then we could definitely say 343 are as worthy as Bungie, and that the XB1 would probably sell close to the 360. Now it is clear that neither of those will happen. Both Halos were the first main game on their system, both are part of a popular existing franchise, both had install base at close to the same numbers, both are the 3rd Halo game total made by each developer. Lots of similarities compared to the situation Halo 4 was in.



 I reject yours as well. You can't compare two Halos by two different studios, especially when a lot of people decried 343 as a shit studio and thought Halo was over with 3 (chronologically).

Please tell me you aren't counting the Master Chief Collection as a third game from 343i (and if you do, it's an horrible argument!)

Three things I'd rather list as well...

1. Both were different developers.

2. It is 343i's second mainline game. The other one, Halo 4, was already slammed often...

3. Odds are that a lot of the fanbase that played H3 were the bulk of H4 sales, if you want to open that can of worms. Cue the current generation and a lot of people that didn't like Halo 4. Odds are they abandoned the franchise, and those sold systems weren't sold. So we are dealing with an small part of those who stayed on board and new blood, so to speak.

4. There were further complaints when split screen multiplayer was removed.

5. Even if game sales do not scale linearly, they do for the first sold title on a console as shown by the graphic quoted below. In other words, what it sold by percentage covers the amount of Halo customers in the current console. Halo 4 is the first Halo game in the current arc, so Halo 5 is the second installment, not the third, as for the most important things, Halo 3 was the last installment of the trilogy. Halo 4 as a whole was an extension that took the story beyond that.

6. You want to compare a game to Halo 3? Use Halo 6. Not Halo 5... If you want a fairer comparison, use Halo 2 instead. Same progression into the story, into the console's growth and into the gameplay.

SWORDF1SH said:

If you want to say that Halo 5 "outperformed" Halo 4 then that's up to you but simple saying that one released on a bigger install base then explain a the math behind it. You know you can say "Halo 4 had 6 times the user base so therefore time Halo 5 sales by 6", right? In fact you can look at all the franchise and the majority of releases throughout a gen do not rise in percentage anywhere near the console's. So stop trying to push the success should be meesured by attach rate.

Besides Halo should of drove XB1 sales, not holiday bf and Christmas sales, barely winning October in US (Halo launch) would of been unheard of in the past and before this generation started nobody would ever though that could happen. This is Halo's biggest failure.

No. Halo 4 had 6 times more Xbox 360s to sell on. By mere probability, casual sales had to represent a larger margin of them. There's also the whole thing with Halo 3 fans buying the game. We have a name for that, it's called a "captive audience".

As for the percentage part? Figures, since from H3 to H4 the percentage declined along with sales. It's true that they do not rise once the generation starts, but that is since the users keep on growing and the game sales fall shorter of their target by percent. For the first installment in a new console, it is a perfectly reasonable way of gauging interest. If Halo 4 had outsold it's predecessor, then I'd understand your concern. It did not. We're stuck with a sequel that sold 5 million units LESS... and it's percentage declined. I was thinking on using the original Halo, but that is unfair, unlike the H4-H5 comparison, were they are both developed by the same company and are part of the same character arc.

And you really ought to clean your ears. Have you even heard what I am saying? Only Halo 3 moved a sizeable amount of systems. And even then?

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/39355/Global/

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42309/Global/

And for fun, here we can see Halo 4's console sales...

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41224/Global/

The "failure" outdid the most solid entry in the entire series. Or do you have no explanation for that? I'll give you a really good one. Prestige. Bungie had a lot of it.

Numbers for the series are down, but the console's are up... why is that?

Normchacho said:
AsGryffynn said:

Since I am feeling generous, I won't ask you to read the comment on the last page and look for it yourself. Instead, show some gratitude that I was in a good mood to post this here for you all to read...

On the note of the install base. Halo 4 sold around 10% of the 360s install base while halo 5 sold around 15% of the X1 install base as of dec 12th if we only include retail.



 

I...what? Did you read my post? The attachment rate means nothing and even if it did, that rate isn't going to hold. MS is going to sell like 30-40 million more consoles this gen. Halo 5 sales aren't going to keep up with that.

Well duh, nobody likes old news. Halo 6 might not agree though...

Torillian said:
AsGryffynn said:

Outperforming as in performance, not sales. You can't expect 20 million Xbox One owners to buy what 80 million did...



You can't just compare install base percentages for two games and say one outperformed the other because it has a higher percentage.  Sales of any individual franchise do not go up linearly with install base so a percentage of userbase is just a fun factoid without enough information to compare two games with different install bases.  

 

As an illustration here's a graph of madden sales in the US compared to X360 install base.

This is by no means a linear relationship.  Now it's possible that Halo series does have a linear relationship but you can't decide that based off two points (since you decided only 343 developed games count in a later post).  That simply isn't how math works and an assumption of linearity in an install base to individual game sales relationship would only make sense if all other franchises which had enough games to come to a conclusion had had a linear relationship between the two.  Obviously given the example I just showed you above, that simply isn't the case.  

 

I can when we look at Halo 4 sales and then compare the size of the Xbox community at that point in time, consoles sold on that week (all of them have one thing in common, they were the only good game on that week. Obviously, a single game can't grow with the console, but series can, since each installment adds more new blood into the series. The reason Halo 3 sold really well is that a lot of fans were eager for the ending of the story. After Halo 3, some fans left and only some others stayed. Even then, the bulk of those who bought Halo 3 were the same ones who bought Halo 4. But even then, the numbers were boosted further by a new influx of gamers who wanted to hop on the Halo train at the time.

The best indicator is console sales themselves. Halo 4 sold less than Halo 3, yet it moved more consoles. The reason is that a lot of the people who bought Halo 3 already had an Xbox 360. This alone shows that Halo 4 benefitted from a larger Xbox community and drew in more people... yet even then it fell short of its target. So one thing we can say is that it lost gamers who had enjoyed the original, but drew in a lot of other players. A good way to compare them is to compare the sales for both. Halo 3 outsells it by a whooping 5 million sales. A lot of people who liked 4 bought 3, but not the other way around.

Swordmasterman said:
AsGryffynn said:

Since I am feeling generous, I won't ask you to read the comment on the last page and look for it yourself. Instead, show some gratitude that I was in a good mood to post this here for you all to read...

On the note of the install base. Halo 4 sold around 10% of the 360s install base while halo 5 sold around 15% of the X1 install base as of dec 12th if we only include retail.



What the Fuck Dude ?, this dont have nothing to do with the Install Base, when a Game like Halo, Begin to Sell less this does not means nothing with Install Base, this have to do with the Fan Base, that will buy the Console to play the Game (or who already have bought it), If Naughty Dog, launched a Crash Bandicoot 4, the game would Sell more than 7 Millions like their previous entries, same with Mario Kart 8, 11 Millions of Wii U, and 6 Millions of units sold, like Final Fantasy 7, that will Easy Surpass 10 Millions in Sales, the name of this Magic thing are "Fan-Base", if the Peoplel ike Video Game and the Franchise, of course will spend over 400US$ to play the next Main entrie of the Franchise, and Of Course there aways have the People that dont are Fan of the Franchise, but buy the Game because the game is Nice.

For Example, Mario Kart 8, on the Wii U, is Nearly out-selling the Mario Kart from the Game Cube (that had twice of the Install base) this means that from the Game Cube, until nowdays the Fan-base of the Mario Kart Series, still the Same  Despite of How much Consoles Sold.

and for Ori and the Blind Forest, Not even one place says that it Sold Better on Xbox, i dont Know where you have those Ideas, a Indie Game will aways sell better on Steam, than on Any Console, Even Rocket League, that if was not gave for free on Playstation Plus, there would be a lot more Players on Computer, than on Playstation 4.

I Will say what i said Again, the Game is over 2-4 Millions Budget (ori) Microsoft, receive 70% from the Pc Version, and 100% from the Xbox Version, because the game is Fully Digitall, so if they sold 100 Thousands on Pc, and 70 Thousands on  Xbos One, in the First Week already would be Profitable, so we Dont Know how much Ori sold on Xbox, and it did not sold more than on Steam, this is the True, even a free game like Rocket League, Struggled to have more players than Pc, and on a console with more than the Double of Xbox One's Install Base, and i dont Remember Xbox, Having a Plataform Mascot like Sonic, Mario, Crash, so Plataformer is not a very popular genre on Xbox.

Other Thing, they've Stated that Halo 5, was The Best Selling Digital Tittle ever on Xbox Store, on a "Oppening Week", this Also dont mean that Halo 5, surpassed Ori and the Blind Forest, in Digital Sales, this only means that he Surpassed Ori's Week of Launch Numbers.

For Microsoft, you need to use the "Oracle's Eye from the Heavens" to Read the PR.

so with the "Digital Attach Rate from Nowdays" The Last of Us, sold over 14 Millions, and Driveclube, over 3.4 Millions ?.

You Cannot Compare numbers that you Know 100%, with Numbers that we Dont Even Know,  if Halo 5, only did over 3 Millions in the First Year, and Halo 4, did over 7 Millions, this means that the People that Played Halo 4, did not liked it Enought to Buy a Xbox (or the Game Itself) and Play it, this means that those people are  not Really Die Hard Fans of the Franchise, You Cannot compare a Person that Bought a Xbox 360, to Play Skyrim, and Fallout, and use As numbers that "Halo Now sell more with a lower Installbase" of Course, if even with a 80 Millions Install Base, this does not Means that the Fanbase is the same, those 3 Millions of people that purchased in the First Year, are the People that are Fan of the Franchise, and already had a Xbox 360, did you Really think that Halo 5, will Surpass Halo 4, in Sales even when they Release New entries of the Franchise ?, this Only will happen if they Bundle  the Soul of Their dogs with the Game, and sell it Together with the Console.



I will save myself the verbal diarrhea and abridge my response.

1. Mario Kart Wii outsold Double Dash? That is good. It drew in far more people, though that translates into new fans. I can't really gauge the fans since the Wii distorted a clear view, but if it sells more on less, odds are, it was better...

2. http://steamspy.com/app/261570

500,000+ as of this week... 400,000 as of November...

If your argument was right, we literally have a game that at best sold 400,000 units on each system! In other words, we know a bare bones minimum for H5 digital sales even using your argument. Want more proof? Steam has Dead Rising 3 at 320,000 users even though with the 20 percent on the XONE, it stands at 380,000.

3. Your own argument stated that Ori was profitable after it's week of release.

4. We know numbers. Most people just ignore them since this is an unusual circumstance, even though it was warranted.

5. I agree. 343 fucked up, hence why I am not comparing BUNGIE HALOS to 343 Halos!

Also, for the sake of curiosity, allow me to point out how GTA V outsold the XONE version on the X360 and how userbase is VERY influential...

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=&platform=X360&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=&publisher=&platform=XOne&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

Percentage matters not when comparing the games of a series within the same console, but at the onset AND end of each generation!

barneystinson69 said:
AEGRO said:
barneystinson69 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

1st line, talking absolute shit

2nd line,


This could be dragged out because these type of debates usually are so I'll just leave it to you to work this one out!

Well like it or not. When was the last time an exclusive title SIGNITIFCANTLY drives hardware sales? Its been a long time, and that isn't happening anytime soon.



http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar

The Best Selling console of 2015 (Amazon) is the Nathan Drake Collection at #15

 

You just proved my point exactly. It was bundled. That's what I just stated.

Why are we insisting Amazon is the only place people buy consoles now?

GTA V, on the next gen is a Remaster, the Original will aways out-sold it,  Install Base is Meanless and Fanbase is what is Important, you Know that when Resident Evil, Street Fighter, Tekken, Final Fantasy, Dragon's Dogma, sell A lot more on Playstation 3, even on America some titles out-sold the Xbox 360 Version, because the Fan base of those games are on Playstation, same with Call of Duty, it sold more than 8 Millions on Playstation and this already is more than Half the Install base of the Xbox One, this shows that the Shooter fanbase are now with Playstation, because Xbox Fucked up, you Know that when were less than Half Playstation 3 on America (majority Shooter Market) than Xbox 360, and now there are more Playstation 4, than Xbox One, on the America (Despite this Fact, Xbox, Never Maneged to out-sell Playstation on Japan).



 

i Will say one more thing about Ori, Ori and the Blind Forest, is a 2 Millions Budget game priced at 20US$ at Launch, with Microsoft receiving over 80% with the pc sales and 100% with the Xbox Sales, you only need 100 Thousands of Sales to make it Profitable First Week, if the game sold 120k on Pc, and 70K on Xbox One, on the First Week, this means that Halo 5, a game that sold over 1 Millions First Week, sold more than 70k via Digital Purchase in the First Week, this is over 7-9% of Digital Attach Rate, and this is the Natural Digital Attach Rate, so there is Nothing wrong with That, Microsoft's Statement, dont say that he Outsold Ori's life time sales, the Statement States that Halo 5's first Week, vs Ori's first week, sold more Digital on Xbox One, than Ori, and i'm Sure that Ori in the Xbox One, is Nowhere near Half the user base of Steam (only if they gave it in Games with Gold).





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Guys try to keep the quoting shorter LOL



AEGRO said:
Guys try to keep the quoting shorter LOL

Sorry for too much Quoting, is because one of the Users  used the "Quote" Command to Answer 5+ Comments.





AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

33 percent is higher than what you have, unless you're sticking with the 20 percent average, I don't see how...

As for the digital sales of Ori, it has a lot... Halo 5 outsold the digital only IP in XBL. Since Xbox One numbers are higher for the XONE than they are for PC, this shows that Ori and the Blind Forest sold at least 450,000+ downloads in XBL and Halo 5 outdid that.

As for it underperforming... beneath anyone's expectations? Yes. Beneath the average? No. Shall I remind you that Halo 4 had an audience nearly 6 times the size and it relied on that to sell the same number as three, Reach and ODST?

If someone's to blame, it's 343. I myself separated them from Bungie. They are new guys and are not used to dealing with Halo, so I expect a rebound soon. If there's none, then the series died and it's ossified. Time for a reboot...

33% is 60% higher than the ceiling we saw from destiny and we have no real info to tell it on LTD.

How can we be sure that Ori sold more on X1 than on PC? And 450k of Halo 5 (which does include the bundled codes) is a lot different than the 1M+ direct sells on XBL that some are trying to push.

Halo 3 had less of a install base and still outsold Halo 5 more than 2:1, install base isn't everything for a solid and established IP. Halo 1-4 sales have a consistency that Halo 5 falls well under.

And yes 343 and missuse (several revamps, packs, etc made it almost a yearly franchise) are to blame.

Out of curiosity, what was Destiny's ceiling... for the Xbox One?

How can we? Precedent. It seems to happen more often than not. That Ori sold better in PC or Steam is a rarity in and on itself. Look at Titanfall, Ryse, D4, Dead Rising 3... all of them on SteamSpy and all of them with half the XONE sales at most... Even the physical Titanfall fell short of the XBO version.

Well, I am not pushing for 1M+ sales. My estimate is around 550,000-600,000+ and it ties in neatly with the above average 33 percent digital sales rate I had, since the preloading incentive translated into more people than normal downloading the game...

As for Halo 3, are you really comparing the end of an arc created by Bungie to the middle point of one created by 343i? Please, no game will ever outsell Halo 3.

Honestly, the best comparisons are ALL HALOS but Halo 3. After all, Halo 1 was the original and the second only performed better with more players and no digital sales. Halo 4 performed as well as Halo 3 on an 81M+ audience. How are you expecting Halo 5 to cope with either of them when they were either the new game that revolutionized shooters, the sequel to said game or on a larger audience? Adjusted for audience differences (or alternatively, what if Halo 4 had released on only 20 million Xbox 360s) the game outperformed Halo 4. This is hardly rule bending. I am just telling you to bear the circumstances surrounding all games in mind.

I agree with 343i not faring well though. It will take a while for them to take up Bungie's mantle and take the IP in their own direction...

So you use numbers that can be even more untrusthyworthy than VGC compared to numbers not know to prove digital rate and then use the only metric that is favorable *attach rate, to say the game is succesfull and will outsell Halo 4? ok no need to all the math gym, we will just keep these posts saved for the right time.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

I see the legend is still on-going.