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The 2015 Canadian Election 2.0 - Liberal Majority

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Previous thread was a bit too soon, so it feel flat on it's face but let's try this again, this time with less than 48 hours to go! For those of you just tuning in, this election is a pretty big deal. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been in power since 2006 and lead the Conservative Party through a number of minority governments and finally a majority government in 2011. Harper has become a controversial figure because of his style of governance, command of the party and recent bills brought forward such as Bill C-51. Despite this, the Conservatives still manage to maintain the support of it's base and cannot be written off in this election.

The challengers to Harper's government is Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party and Thomas Mulcair, leader of the New Democratic Party. The opposition parties are keen on defeating Harper but aren't exactly the best of friends either. To make matters more interesting, most of the election has been a three-way tie between the major parties. While the Trudeau Liberals seem to lead the opinion polls, anything could happen on election day. No matter who wins, this election will be one for the history books.

MAJOR PARTIES

The Conservative Party of Canada

Leader: Stephen Harper

Seats Before Election: 159

Seats After Election: TBA

Change: TBA

The Liberal Party of Canada

Leader: Justin Trudeau

Seats Before Election: 36

Seats After Election: TBA

Change: TBA

The New Democratic Party

Leader: Thomas Mulcair

Seats Before Election: 95

Seats After Election: TBA

Change: TBA

MINOR PARTIES

The Green Party

Leader: Elizabeth May

Seats Before Election: 2

Seats After Election: TBA

Change: TBA

The Bloc Québécois

Leader: Gilles Duceppe

Seats Before Election: 2

Seats After Election: TBA

Change: TBA


Opinion Polls

I'll be using the latest polls from CBC/ThreeHunderedAndEight. Globe and Mail also has an interesting poll simulator/projector. Check it out here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

10/19/2015

Party Projected Seats
Conservative Party 118
New Democratic Party 66
Liberal Party 146
Green Party 1
Others 0
Bloc Québécois 7

If you're unsure who to vote for, or you're just curious on which party suits your views the most, check out CBC's Vote Compass, it's pretty neat.

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/

Election Results:

Party Seats Elected
Conservative Party 99
Liberal Party 184
New Democratic Party 44
Green Party 1
Bloc Québécois 10
Others 0

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Making things more personal now. My vote will probably go to the NDP, mostly since I'm not too keen on either Conservatives or Liberals this election. I think the Conservatives are suffering from fatigue and need a break from ruling power to find a new leader and just come up with something new. After almost a decade in power I think it would be good for them. Also while I admire Justin Trudeau's passion, he does not feel like a leader to me and I feel that someone else on the backbench is ruling the Liberal Party instead. Considering the party's history, my dislike for the Ontario Liberals and their most recent scandal, I'm not too confident in Trudeau's plan for "change".  The Greens are decent but nothing to make me consider voting for a minor party unless there is electoral reform.

If I had to guess, the Liberals will probably win a miniority and Conservatives will form the official opposition.

Party Projected Seats
Liberal Party 163
Conservative Party 123
New Democratic Party 50
Green Party 1
Bloc Québécois 1

The continuing Liberal momentum I think will continue to erode away at NDP support (unless something drastic happens this weekend to stop the surge) and land the Liberals just short of a majority. The Conservatives will probably remain stable or perhaps slightly increase. Green will win their safe seat in BC and Bloc probably won't find much support despite the NDP dip in Quebec. Hard to say where the NDP will land but it's not looking so hot right now as Liberal support is very strong.



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I'm voting Conservative. Not because I like the Conservatives, but because I truly believe the other two will make things worse. At least things will be consistently Meh with the Conservatives. The closest thing Trudaeu has to credentials is 'my daddy was prime minister,' and an NDP run Canada would serve as a logical prequel to Mad Max.

This election is not about who will be a good leader, but who will be a less bad leader, sadly.




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

novasonic said:
I'm voting Conservative. Not because I like the Conservatives, but because I truly believe the other two will make things worse. At least things will be consistently Meh with the Conservatives. The closest thing Trudaeu has to credentials is 'my daddy was prime minister,' and an NDP run Canada would serve as a logical prequel to Mad Max.

This election is not about who will be a good leader, but who will be a less bad leader, sadly.


I'm interested to hear a logical reason on why you think NDP getting power would cause that?

I have heard that a lot, but I have yet to hear proper reasons for it.



i would vote for those french people.



generic-user-1 said:
i would vote for those french people.


I think you need to be more specific considering the Bloc, Liberals and NDP leaders are all from Quebec.



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Leadified said:
generic-user-1 said:
i would vote for those french people.


I think you need to be more specific considering the Bloc, Liberals and NDP leaders are all from Quebec.

bloc frenchcanada.  those poor guys, togehter in a land with the lowest of the low and wankers...



generic-user-1 said:
Leadified said:
generic-user-1 said:
i would vote for those french people.


I think you need to be more specific considering the Bloc, Liberals and NDP leaders are all from Quebec.

bloc frenchcanada.  those poor guys, togehter in a land with the lowest of the low and wankers...


Montreal is pretty nice this time of the year so I can't blame them that much. I wouldn't worry too much about the Bloc, Duceppe has his mon amour to keep him company.



Kagerow said:
novasonic said:
I'm voting Conservative. Not because I like the Conservatives, but because I truly believe the other two will make things worse. At least things will be consistently Meh with the Conservatives. The closest thing Trudaeu has to credentials is 'my daddy was prime minister,' and an NDP run Canada would serve as a logical prequel to Mad Max.

This election is not about who will be a good leader, but who will be a less bad leader, sadly.


I'm interested to hear a logical reason on why you think NDP getting power would cause that?

I have heard that a lot, but I have yet to hear proper reasons for it.

Just listen to all the financial promises they're making to various groups. These things require money. Lots of money. They are either lying, planning to sky rocket taxes, or will burn the economy to the ground. The NDP also opposes almost everything to do with expanding Canada's oil and gas industries.

So.. ya know. Burnt hust of an economy. Stalling of oil and gas industries. It's a stretch, but feels very Mad Max to me.

There's a very good reason the NDP has never won a federal election. They just can not be trusted with that kind of financial responsibility. They've won a few provincial elections over the years, but it never ends well. It takes decades for the party that comes in after them to clean up the mess.




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

Still thinking of voting for conservatives since the alternatives aren't any better ...



novasonic said:

Just listen to all the financial promises they're making to various groups. These things require money. Lots of money. They are either lying, planning to sky rocket taxes, or will burn the economy to the ground. The NDP also opposes almost everything to do with expanding Canada's oil and gas industries.

So.. ya know. Burnt hust of an economy. Stalling of oil and gas industries. It's a stretch, but feels very Mad Max to me.

There's a very good reason the NDP has never won a federal election. They just can not be trusted with that kind of financial responsibility. They've won a few provincial elections over the years, but it never ends well. It takes decades for the party that comes in after them to clean up the mess.


Hmm? I would like sources, since their platform page doesn't list anything particularly off the calculation. And he is very correct at opposing expanding oil and gas industry. If anything, he should be reducing oil, while expanding gas slightly. Money from oil is going to quickly decline, as oil isn't going to be a cheapest energy source anymore. [1] Swanson effect isn't going anywhere, and Oil will also go down in price in order to compete.

Considering that our oil mostly comes from Tar Sand, I doubt it will continue to be competitive in global market.

It would also be nice to give me a source where NDP screw up worse than PC did, then other party had to clean it up, since apparently I can't do a good research. Because it is pretty difficult to top amount of waste PC is making.

I don't fully agree with Mulcair, his platform is missing many quick and easy solution that can be applied fast, and improve Canada.

But in other hand, Trudaeu is mix of meh, while Harper seems to be happy to drive Canada straight into the limbo.

However, even under this odd, I'm still not in favor of NDP Supermajority. Opinions are great, we need to keep opinions flowing.

1. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/business/energy-environment/solar-and-wind-energy-start-to-win-on-price-vs-conventional-fuels.html