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Forums - Gaming Discussion - RubberWhistleHistle: PS4 to sell 80M, Wii U to sell 55M, X1 to sell 38.7M lifetime

RubberWhistleHistle said:

A lot of you guys like to criticize our predictions, but you don't know what goes into making these predictions. Yes, my numbers very well could be off, but I'm basing this on the current evidence and facts about the market.

Analyzing the market is more than just pulling numbers out of your ass, guys. 

If you denounce pulling numbers out of your ass then provide the calculations and observations you supposedly took into account to fall into these numers.

If WiiU will outsell Xbone then when is it going to start outselling it to reach those numbers you predict/want to see happen.



Nintendo is selling their IPs to Microsoft and this is true because:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=221391&page=1

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Srassy said:
Could you please elaborate then?


i elaborated in the OP. I please ask that you read the OP and not just the predictions before commenting.  

thank you :)



AbbathTheGrim said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:

A lot of you guys like to criticize our predictions, but you don't know what goes into making these predictions. Yes, my numbers very well could be off, but I'm basing this on the current evidence and facts about the market.

Analyzing the market is more than just pulling numbers out of your ass, guys. 

If you denounce pulling numbers out of your ass then provide the calculations and observations you supposedly took into account to fall into these numers.

If WiiU will outsell Xbone then when is it going to start outselling it to reach those numbers you predict/want to see happen.

i mainly used calculus to figure it out. i can send you my notes if you really want to see them. do you understand calculus?

i came up with functions for each console, representing the sales that they should be attaining over their lifespan. i integrated from the year that they released to the year it is likely to be replaced (for example the PS4 came out in 2013, so I integrated its curve from 2013-2019). I then sprinkled a few million extra sales on top of it as it will sell a bit more into the PS5's lifespan. 

I also came up with functions for how the smart device market will eat into the sales of the console market, and it only seemed to affect the xbox one for some reason, after doing some research, the answer was obvious as it was right on the back of the xbox one's console box: football. i then came up with graphs for how football affected sales, and indeed, the smart device market takes away from it because a lot of people use their smartphones to follow football.

for the wii u, i mainly used neurophysiology and some basic biochemistry as that is going to be the big determining factor in the mechanism that is used to increase the sales. the wii u stimulates people, so this is something that i have been studying for about two weeks. i studied people's brain chemistry before super mario maker and after super mario maker. the amygdala is the region of the brain most affected by the wii u, and this will prove to be very important. there are other things too, but i dont want to bore you with all the details. just trust me.



With all the games being published, translated and sold to and for throughout most of Asia this generation, plus the recent price cut announcement, and ps4's obvious huge increase in popularity over the ps3, you're saying it'll only sell slightly the same or less than ps3? Seriously?



Yeah, I'm pretty sure Wii U will start to sell to sell 2 million units a week once NX comes out next year, that's perfectly reasonable!

PS4 has this gen in the bag, the gap will only become wider. Casual folks will recognize it as the console of choice, because it already has an enourmous lead over the competition. There will be more exclusive games than for any other machine. These and other factors only magnify over the years, I'm willing to bet it will reach at least 100 million units sold. The Wii U will not sell more than 15 million. It's days are numbered, the successor is around the corner and we all know how very well Nintendo supports its systems once a new one comes out.

The Xbox One only has two markets, the UK and the US. All the rest of world doesn't care for it. It's selling more than the 360 in the same time frame, but I think the sales are somewhat frontloaded. However, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and say it can reach 50 million. But not more.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

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Obvious joke thread is obvious.



RubberWhistleHistle said:
DerNebel said:
Worse than Pachters prediction

Why don't you try to analyze the market. It's not as easy as it might seem. 


Analyze the market ? how the hell Wii U (Current sales are around 11M only) will sell that much when its selling in par with Vita and PS3 every month even after the games you mentioned still ? Also NX is going to come out in 2016/17 so how the Wii U willl peak in 2017 and what is the reason for such big spike when its not getting any 3rd party games at all which is the most important factor for sales than exclusives which is why Wii U failed hard and its seling to only Nintendo fans?



GAMING is not about spending hours to pass/waste our time just for fun,

its a Feeling/Experience about a VIRTUAL WORLD we can never be in real, and realizing some of our dreams (also creating new ones).

So, Feel Emotions, Experience Adventure/Action, Challenge Game, Solve puzzles and Have fun.

PlayStation is about all-round "New experiences" using new IP's to provide great diversity for everyone.

Xbox is always about Online and Shooting.

Nintendo is always about Fun games and milking IP's.

I believe the Ps4 prediction is spot on!! Sony's absolutely got it this gen, gathered all 3rd party support

I see that more people can now see some magic in the WiiU as well!! but it all depends on how it's going to sell this holiday and how soon Nintendo is releasing the NX
if Nintendo was to invest more resources on the WiiU and get 3rd parties, it could reach 55M but with what we have now, seems very unlikely

about XboxONE, why do you think football is going to affect it's sales that much? the 40m prediction sounds realistic though



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

RubberWhistleHistle said:
DerNebel said:
Worse than Pachters prediction

Why don't you try to analyze the market. It's not as easy as it might seem. 

Take a look at my sig. I did at least in part do that almost 2 years ago.

I would at this point change my "analysis" to a lower number for the Wii U and for the X1 I would probably go with something between 50-60 million, I'd stick with my original PS4 prediction of 105-115 million.

Edit: 3DS a little lower as well.



I predict this for ps4.

North America: 30-38 million
Europe: 44-46 million
Asia: 15-22 million
ROW: 20 million


Step #1. PS4 is NOT ps3. It's way more popular.

Step #2. PS3 sold approximately 25 ish million in the US. PS4 will sell at least a good 10 million more than that, if not more, thanks to COD marketing, among other big partnerships this gen.

Step #3. Sony is treating Asia as it's next big territory as evidenced at last week's tgs. Many big games are being translated and sold in various Asian countries this time Sony announced such as China, Korea, and others.

This didn't happen last gen.


So that 80 million number in my opinion is a huge insult to ps4.