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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U estimates up!

StarDoor said:
Teeqoz said:


What would Sony fans need to excuse? The PS4 not beating the competition by enough?

FYI the GBA launched at 150$ in 2001, which is the equivalent to 189$ in 2011 (3DS launch). The 3DS's price may have started out higher than that, at 249$, but in just 6 months, it's price was cut to 169$.


What in the world are you talking about? The GBA launched at $100. Just $135 in 2015 dollars.


Sorry 'bout that, my source said 149$ for GBA, then 99$ for GBA SP and Micro, but after some more Googling I see that you are right. Funny thing is that on the same page it also said that launch price was 100$, I just didn't notice it



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Shadow1980 said:
Teeqoz said:


It's not only in the US the 3DS is down quite a bit compared to the GBA. At roughly the same point in its life compared to where the 3DS is now, the GBA had sold 19 million in the "Other" region (Which btw doesn't match 100% with Europe, there were/are other, albeit small regions also included under that term) compared to the 3DS's 16 million, and, get this, that's despite the DS having been out for almost a year by then. So that's 3 million more in the other region, despite its successor having been out a year. Like I said, if the GBA had been given a longer life, it could've done a lot more. The only region were the 3DS is performing better than the GBA is Japan, were the difference, with launches aligned is about 3.5 million. So if we ignore the Americas, the 3DS is up 0.5 million. Sure, that paints a much brighter picture, but then you remember that this is 1 year after the DS launch in the GBA's lifespan, while the 3DS still reigns alone. Once again it comes back to the GBA getting a successor super quickly (3 and a half years). I'm pretty confident that the GBA could've managed 30 million in the Other region alone, or at least pretty darn close to it, had it's successor come at the same point it its life as the 3DS' successor will, yet the 3DS might just reach 20 million. 

Point being, the U.S./NA market was grossly inflated, and even had they waited a couple of years to release the DS, the U.S. market would still be disproportionately large compared to the rest of the world. I have annual NPD data for handhelds going back to 1995:

We see that huge spike with the GBC continuing on through the GBA, and then it just got bigger with the DS Lite and the addition of a successful non-Nintendo system. This is more or less congruent with shipment data for the whole region, which showed a huge and continuous boost from the very late 90s on throughout the first half of the 00s.

Now let's look at Japan.

I don't have sales data prior to 2000, but shipment data for Japan suggests far more modest growth of Nintendo handheld sales, hence why the GBA only sold half as much as the original Game Boy line. But the overall handheld market has remained quite strong, though interestingly the DS had a less protracted period of mega-sales.

As for Europe, VGC is the only place that has actual sales data, but shipment data (which includes not just Europe but also Australia, Oceania, and various other minor markets) suggests that the GBA was doing not noticeably better than the Game Boy line was in its best years, and that the brief period the GBC was around it was selling faster than the GBA ever would (though Nintendo could have just dumped a bunch of them on the market to deal with the Pokemon boom). The DS was just as huge in Europe as it was in America. As for the 3DS, shipment data suggests it is lagging behind the GBA, but only by about 15% or so, but the 3DS did have a weak start, and lost momentum is hard to recover from. It's sufficiently close to where factors endogenous to the market can explain the difference.

The U.S. is still the anomaly here. The handheld market in the region became absolutely monstrous beginning in 1998 and didn't lose any steam at all until 2012-ish. We simply did not see the same thing in Europe and Japan, hence why the GBA sold only half as well as the original GB line in those regions but almost beat it in America, and NA representing about half the GBA's sales, the biggest regional share by far of any major handheld. This is why I think asking why the handheld market was so big in the U.S. back then is an even more pertinent question than why the 3DS isn't doing as well as the GBA in the region. For Europe and Japan, once the market got out from under the DS's massive shadow, it was back to business as usual.

I was absent for so long...oh
So much discussion with the  low 77k 3DS sold in August as the occassion, but no one mentioned that New 3ds (not standalone but animal crossing bundle) releases in the USA on 25th of September,which might explains the low numbers of 3DS(look in the neogaf thread the maddness about this bundle,mainly because for new 3ds not the game/offerings),some people must have waited for that,not to forget how much americans were wanting new 3ds instead of new 3ds xl and weren't willing to compromise but to await New 3ds release someday instead. 3DS sold 75k in January,the month before New 3ds xl release...
Also there was the 2DS price drop on 31th of August...(129->99)

Let's not put the car before the horse,september NPD will tell...