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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U estimates up!

tiffac said:
DonFerrari said:


There is still time to win that damn bet.

Yes, there is d@mnit! Yes, there is! Dx

Relax, its just a pizza. Be glad you dint go for go to any resturaunt and order what you want. :p "Ill have a 16oz rib eye with a side of lobster please" 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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darkenergy said:
Drakrami said:


The denial is strong in this one... Even after 2 years into the console war. 


Some people were expecting a bigger gap between the two but it seems that wasn't the case so it seems people overestimated things.

Lol, the only reason the gap isn't larger is because MS is constantly having to do deals for XBO, some even looking like Black Friday deals, even though they already have a $50 advantage.  Now, what is going to happen when Sony finally decide to give the PS4 a pricecut?  Or if they were matching MS's deals like for like?  I'll give you the answer, the gap would be much larger.  Just watch the gap in Sept. with the new Destiny bundle.



eva01beserk said:
tiffac said:

Yes, there is d@mnit! Yes, there is! Dx

Relax, its just a pizza. Be glad you dint go for go to any resturaunt and order what you want. :p "Ill have a 16oz rib eye with a side of lobster please" 


This is very true =]

PS4 can  be proven more expensive than you would expect.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

thismeintiel said:

 Now, what is going to happen when Sony finally decide to give the PS4 a pricecut? 


Free Xbone for everyone !



Namiirei said:
thismeintiel said:

 Now, what is going to happen when Sony finally decide to give the PS4 a pricecut? 


Free Xbone for everyone !

If you subtracted the values of some of the things MS will be throwing in with the XBO after a $299 PS4 is launched, I wouldn't be surprised if they do start selling it for practically nothing. 



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Teeqoz said:
Shadow1980 said:

 


The 3DS is performing very badly for a Nintendo handheld. At the same point in its life, the GBA had shipped 70 million, despite its successor, the DS having already been a year on the market by then. Had the GBA been given as much time as the 3DS, it could've passed the 100 million mark. There's no covering up that. You can't say the GBA sales were "inflated" in the US, just because they were good.

Since Sony fans love using it as an excuse, guess ill use it as well. 3DS is also Nintys most expensive handheld.



Nintyfan90 said:
Teeqoz said:


The 3DS is performing very badly for a Nintendo handheld. At the same point in its life, the GBA had shipped 70 million, despite its successor, the DS having already been a year on the market by then. Had the GBA been given as much time as the 3DS, it could've passed the 100 million mark. There's no covering up that. You can't say the GBA sales were "inflated" in the US, just because they were good.

Since Sony fans love using it as an excuse, guess ill use it as well. 3DS is also Nintys most expensive handheld.


What would Sony fans need to excuse? The PS4 not beating the competition by enough?

FYI the GBA launched at 150$ in 2001, which is the equivalent to 189$ in 2011 (3DS launch). The 3DS's price may have started out higher than that, at 249$, but in just 6 months, it's price was cut to 169$.



The reason GBA had much higher sales in the US is because the US did not embrace the DS nearly as quickly as Japan and Europe did, so the GBA had a more normalized life cycle in the US.

But the GBA was not some odd outlier, the Game Boy Color released in November 1998, had similar yearly sales numbers to the GBA. Basically since the introduction of Pokemon and addition of a color Game Boy model in the US, sales of Nintendo handhelds in the US have been fairly consistent ... until this generation where we see a definite drop off due to the 3DS.

Nintendo handheld shipments (USA):

FY Ending March 2000 = 8.7 million Game Boys in the US (Game Boy Color)

FY Ending March 2001 = 7.74 million Game Boys in the US (Game Boy Color), a little drop-off here but to be expected because the Game Boy Advance had been announced and was on the verge of launch.

FY Ending March 2002 = 7.57 million GBAs + 1.46 Game Boy Color models (US market)

FY Ending March 2003 = 7.8 million GBAs

FY Ending March 2004 = 9.45 million GBAs (peak year, this is where the GBA SP model is introduced)

Nintendo DS launch, now lets take a look at sales globally here, and you'll see that the DS adoption is much slower in the US than Japan for example

FY Ending March 2005 = GBA = 2.34 (JPN) + 8.56 (US) + 4.49 (EU) = 15.39
DS = 950k (EU) + 2.12 (JPN) + 2.19 (US) = 5.26

We see the GBA still selling at a monstrous 8.56 in the US, which is its regular sales rate (more or less) of the Game Boy brand for the previous 5-6 years in the US.

(FY March 2006) - GBA = 1.0 (JPN) + 4.7 (US) + 2.6 (EU) = 8.3
DS = 4.78 (JPN) + 2.92 (US) + 3.76 (EU) = 11.46
19.76m total

Here we see again, weak-ish DS sales in the US, but still OK GBA sales.

FY March 2007 - GBA = 110k (JPN) + 3 (US) + 1.22 (EU) = 4.33
DS = 9.12 (JPN) + 6.63 (US) + 7.81 (EU) = 23.56
27.86m total

OK, so look at that difference, 3 million GBAs still be shipped to the US market, while only 110k to Japan. As of 2007 Nintendo is still kind of in the transition phase in the US market.

FY March 2008 - GBA = 220k (JPN) + 540k (US) + 820k (EU) = 1.58m
DS = 6.36 (JPN) + 10.65 (US) + 13.3 (EU) = 30.31
31.89m total

Now finally in 2008 we see the US market embrace the DS whole heartedly and the GBA is finally basically phased out to sub-1 million shipments.

The 3DS is just selling poorly compared to the GBC, GBA, and DS in the US market. There's just no shaking that. Nintendo has had handheld shipments/sales of 7-8+ million beginning with the Game Boy Color since 2000 in the US market alone.

It's not until the 3DS we start to see a baseline of sub-7 million numbers in the US market, to the point where we are today where Nintendo can barely ship 7 million 3DS' worldwide (this year)! This is not good, even the Game Boy Color before it was replaced by the GBA was selling 7+ million in the US market easily, now Nintendo can barely manage that with the 3DS in US + EU + Japan combined, and this is with a new hardware model (N3DS) in 2/3 markets this year. That's very poor by Nintendo's standards. 



eva01beserk said:
tiffac said:

Yes, there is d@mnit! Yes, there is! Dx

Relax, its just a pizza. Be glad you dint go for go to any resturaunt and order what you want. :p "Ill have a 16oz rib eye with a side of lobster please" 

Bro, its not Pizza, its buffet and there is 3 of them. @_@



Shadow1980 said:
Teeqoz said:


The 3DS is performing very badly for a Nintendo handheld. At the same point in its life, the GBA had shipped 70 million, despite its successor, the DS having already been a year on the market by then. Had the GBA been given as much time as the 3DS, it could've passed the 100 million mark. There's no covering up that. You can't say the GBA sales were "inflated" in the US, just because they were good.



Roughly half of the GBA's global sales total came from North America, whereas only 36% of original Game Boy line sales were from NA. Also, the GBA sold almost as much as the original Game Boy line, whereas the gen-over-gen drop was by nearly half in Japan and Europe. This is consistent with a massive spike in handheld sales in the U.S., which both NPD data and Nintendo shipment data shows happening concurrent with the GB Color's first full year and continuing on through to the GBA. Said multi-year spike was simply not present in Europe and Japan. For some reason or another (Pokemon being a likely contributor), the handheld market exploded in the U.S. in 1999 and remained strong throughout the GBA era. Meanwhile, with the DS we see it having a regional split more in line with that of the original Game Boy line. Gen-over-gen sales went up about two-fold in Japan (where the DS didn't have quite the protracted strong streak it did in the West) and 2.5-fold in Europe, but only by about 42% in the U.S. because of how big the GBA was.

While those 3DS bars haven't reached their final configuration, numerically the 3DS will likely end up at about half the GBA's sales in North America, while in Japan the handheld market is still very healthy and in Europe the 3DS could still match the GBA. The 3DS's "poor" performance for a Nintendo handheld is almost entirely due to the U.S., where we've seen a huge correction in the handheld market after being overly inflated during the first half of the 00s. Global numbers don't tell us much unless we actually analyze regional differences in buying habits, which are frequently quite large. The question likely isn't "Why isn't the 3DS selling better than it is?" but rather "Why did the GBA perform so well in the U.S.?"


It's not only in the US the 3DS is down quite a bit compared to the GBA. At roughly the same point in its life compared to where the 3DS is now, the GBA had sold 19 million in the "Other" region (Which btw doesn't match 100% with Europe, there were/are other, albeit small regions also included under that term) compared to the 3DS's 16 million, and, get this, that's despite the DS having been out for almost a year by then. So that's 3 million more in the other region, despite its successor having been out a year. Like I said, if the GBA had been given a longer life, it could've done a lot more. The only region were the 3DS is performing better than the GBA is Japan, were the difference, with launches aligned is about 3.5 million. So if we ignore the Americas, the 3DS is up 0.5 million. Sure, that paints a much brighter picture, but then you remember that this is 1 year after the DS launch in the GBA's lifespan, while the 3DS still reigns alone. Once again it comes back to the GBA getting a successor super quickly (3 and a half years). I'm pretty confident that the GBA could've managed 30 million in the Other region alone, or at least pretty darn close to it, had it's successor come at the same point it its life as the 3DS' successor will, yet the 3DS might just reach 20 million.