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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U estimates up!

jason1637 on 12 September 2015
Drakrami said:
darkenergy said:


Some people were expecting a bigger gap between the two but it seems that wasn't the case so it seems people overestimated things.


The last lopsided win happened in June with the Batman bundle. The next potential ones are September (MGS5 + Destiny), November (Battlefront + COD), and all 3 months in Q1 2016. 


Except April next year also november and december will be close.



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Farsala on 12 September 2015

PS4 doing less then PSP is pretty bad. Worse is 3DS numbers at same point in time. Since Japan and US is about done it could get 5-9m more. europe idk. But 70m seems too hard for it at this point in time.



AEGRO on 12 September 2015
Farsala said:
PS4 doing less then PSP is pretty bad. Worse is 3DS numbers at same point in time. Since Japan and US is about done it could get 5-9m more. europe idk. But 70m seems too hard for it at this point in time.


Japan is irrelevant at this point, its a shame. They went for the handheld way. Consoles are dead there.



Angelv577 on 12 September 2015
tiffac said:
D@mnit! So close but it will only be a matter of time before the X1 overtakes the PS4 is the US.

The Chief is coming... Okay later in the year but its close!

what is the point, it will be taken back if that really happen and you can expect a ps4 price cut for sure next year.  The only reason xbox1 sold better on holidays last year was because MS offered a much better deal than Sony which I expect the same thing again, after holidays, ps4 will be back on top.  If a temporary victory makes you happy, well I have nothing else to say.  



Farsala on 13 September 2015
Shadow1980 said:

Farsala said:
PS4 doing less then PSP is pretty bad.

Making direct comparisons of the PSP to the PS4 will be imprecise due to fact the PSP launched in March, so a precise launch-aligned comparison is difficult. Also, y'know, it's a handheld, so it's not exactly a fair comparison either direction (handhelds tend to do much better in Japan, for instance; also, handhelds typically cost a lot less than a console). That being said, the PSP rarely sold over 200k units in any given month in the U.S. 14 times from 2006 onwards not including holiday months, to be precise, and most of those were after the PSP-2000 was released.  The PS4 has already sold 200+k on eleven separate non-holiday months in the U.S. and it's not even two years old yet. It sold 4.7 million units in the U.S. last year, whereas in its best year the PSP only sold 3.83M. By any objective standard, the PS4 is doing much better than the PSP in the U.S. and it hasn't even received its first price cut yet.

Worse is 3DS numbers at same point in time. Since Japan and US is about done it could get 5-9m more. europe idk. But 70m seems too hard for it at this point in time.

The 3DS only looks bad because A) the DS was an ungodly monster whose success nobody could reasonably expect to replicate, and B) the GBA's sales were grossly inflated in the U.S. Had the U.S. handheld market in the late 90s and first half of the 00s grew more slowly like it did in Europe and Japan, the GBA might have only sold 60 million lifetime. I think the 3DS will end somewhere in the 70-75 million range (unless the NX ends up being Nintendo's next handheld and launches late next year, which would quickly take the wind out of the 3DS's sales; handhelds usually don't have good legs), which is still very good sales figures. Hell, the 53M or so it's sold so far is damn good for a 4-½ year old system (so far only the PS2, Wii, GBA and DS did better). In fact, the 3DS has already surpassed the GBA in Japan and will likely surpass the PSP within the next 4-5 months and could still potentially sell over 20 million each in the U.S. and Europe, with another few million from other markets.



Just comparing Augusts. ie 2nd august. So when it launched is moot unless i looked at bad numbers.

PS4 doing worse then PSP in any metric is pretty bad for a market leader. I suspect a price cut may have happened. PSP $ by  inflation is about the same as PS4. And I do not think PSP was bundled much.


3DS is dragged dovvn by software. I hope devs can find compelling markets in handhelds again.



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UltimateGamerConsole on 13 September 2015
jlmurph2 said:
UltimateGamerConsole said:

Winning is winning, whether by an inch or by a mile.


When you're dealing with estimates, a less than a 3.5% difference is a tie.

I think you didn't get the reference.



jlmurph2 on 13 September 2015
UltimateGamerConsole said:
jlmurph2 said:


When you're dealing with estimates, a less than a 3.5% difference is a tie.

I think you didn't get the reference.


Fast and the Furious yeah I got it.



tiffac on 13 September 2015
DonFerrari said:
tiffac said:
D@mnit! So close but it will only be a matter of time before the X1 overtakes the PS4 is the US.

The Chief is coming... Okay later in the year but its close!


There is still time to win that damn bet.

Yes, there is d@mnit! Yes, there is! Dx



Farsala on 13 September 2015
Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

Just comparing Augusts. ie 2nd august. So when it launched is moot unless i looked at bad numbers.

Well, the PSP's second August was August 2007, in which case it sold only 146k.

PS4 doing worse then PSP in any metric is pretty bad for a market leader. I suspect a price cut may have happened. PSP $ by  inflation is about the same as PS4. And I do not think PSP was bundled much.

The PSP was $170 by August 2007. Adjusted for inflation that's only $195, less than half the PS4's current price. And the only leading consoles in the U.S. to do better than the PS4 at this point in their lives were the PS2 and Wii, both of which were much cheaper at this point in their lives than the PS4. In August 2002 the PS2 was selling at $200, which is $270 in 2015 dollars, while in August 2008 the Wii was still selling at its launch price of $250, which is $277 in 2015 dollars.




PSPs 2nd august vvas 2006. and at $250. It also had little bundling. 146k is correct though.



Teeqoz on 13 September 2015
Shadow1980 said:

Farsala said:

Worse is 3DS numbers at same point in time. Since Japan and US is about done it could get 5-9m more. europe idk. But 70m seems too hard for it at this point in time.

The 3DS only looks bad because A) the DS was an ungodly monster whose success nobody could reasonably expect to replicate, and B) the GBA's sales were grossly inflated in the U.S. Had the U.S. handheld market in the late 90s and first half of the 00s grew more slowly like it did in Europe and Japan, the GBA might have only sold 60 million lifetime. I think the 3DS will end somewhere in the 70-75 million range (unless the NX ends up being Nintendo's next handheld and launches late next year, which would quickly take the wind out of the 3DS's sales; handhelds usually don't have good legs), which is still very good sales figures. Hell, the 53M or so it's sold so far is damn good for a 4-½ year old system (so far only the PS2, Wii, GBA and DS did better). In fact, the 3DS has already surpassed the GBA in Japan and will likely surpass the PSP within the next 4-5 months and could still potentially sell over 20 million each in the U.S. and Europe, with another few million from other markets.

 


The 3DS is performing very badly for a Nintendo handheld. At the same point in its life, the GBA had shipped 70 million, despite its successor, the DS having already been a year on the market by then. Had the GBA been given as much time as the 3DS, it could've passed the 100 million mark. There's no covering up that. You can't say the GBA sales were "inflated" in the US, just because they were good.