TLOU movie would do well as long as it's Hugh Jackman and Ellen Page.

Steve Buscemi as Nolan's Character
And Michelle Rodriguez as Tess.

I thought you were being serious about the casting for a moment, and then saw Ellen Page for Ellie.

Aside from the fact that Ellen Page has ripped Naughty Dog for aping her likeness without permission or acknowledgement, which would probably make her rather negatively disposed towards taking part in the movie, there is no way she can possibly pull off playing a 14-year old girl. She's nearly 30, that's too old to do 14.

There's been talk of Maisie Williams, but honestly I'm not sure she's right for the role. I don't know teen / early 20s actors aside from the ones in Game of Thrones so I have no idea who would actually be good to play Ellie. Certianly Ellen Page 10 years ago would have been great. Abigail Breslin is almost 20, so she might still be sufficiently young enough to pull off 14, but really I think to play a convincing 14 the actor needs to be under 18, or freakishly young-looking. 

Josh Brolin suits the role of Joel much more than Jackman, but I think Jackman would be a bigger draw card.

I would prefer a bigger name than Michelle Rodriguez for Tess. It's a small role but it would also be a big draw to have a big name attached. If Charlize Theron isn't cast as Captain Marvel I'd want to shag snag her. After Mad Max she has huge cred for action and hard arsed characters. Plus she's one of the best actors around. Emily Blunt would be great too after her role in Edge of Tomorrow.

Steve Buscemi as David is sooooo right.

I could remember maisie's name so went for Ellen page. She may be almost 30 but she looks 13. XD 

I'm still gonna go with Jackman, and I'm glad you agree with me on Buscemi I think Robert knepper could play that character aswell.

Tess' character was difficult but I do think Michelle would suit the role very well if she was cast for the badass role

role.

Tess isn't merely a badass, she's a leader. In the underground community she's higher up the pecking order than Joel. Michelle Rodriguez does great as a badass grunt, but I think she lacks the screen presence to be a leader. I'd also like the movie to spend a bit more time with Joel and Tess before Ellie shows up to more strongly establish their relationship and give the audience more connection to Tess. They should spend about 10-15 minutes of screen time with how Joel and Tommy end up parting ways, and with seeing Joel and Tess meeting and forming their bond, and even a scene with Bill, then forward to the game's timeline. I think 1/2 of the movie could be pre-Ellie. You basically have half the movie to establish what Joel has become over 20 years, and then half the movie with Joel finding his heart again through Ellie. It's Joel's emotional journey that will carry the movie if it's going to succeed. Rodriguez is not the right person to be Joel's emotional anchor in the first part. In many ways, Tess should be the star of the first half of the movie. To an audience who doesn't know about the game you could basically make the case that Tess is the one who will get Ellie to where she needs to go, and Joel is the one who'd just there for protection. That gives the story a lot more depth and emotional weight as events unfold. The only reason the game can't make that case is because you play as Joel, so clearly the game is the Joel and Ellie show from the start. Even when Joel takes centre stage as Ellie's courier he still just sees her as a package to be delivered.

Finally some love specifically for Ass Creed. Though I think you 2 are wrong if you think Ass Creed has the best chance of being a good movie out of the 4. I'd vote all of the above before I specifically voted for Ass Creed.

So far we have Ratchet and Clank with a clear lead. If you add all of the "all of the aboves" to the individual movies to which it applies then TLOU comes in second and none of the above comes in 3rd

Ratchet & Clank is animated, so at least it has a chance.
All these others will range from terrible via horrible to horrendous.

That's very pessimistic. I'm at least expecting mediocrity for at 3 out of these 4 movies. One of them will probably be horrible or worse, I just hope it isn't TLOU.

What about the girl from True Grit for Ellie?

Sounds like Oona Laurence from Southpaw could be a great option http://www.imdb.com/name/nm4802218/?ref_=nmbio_bio_nm apparently she is excellent in this movie.

Perhaps a tad young right now, but if they don;t start filming until late next year she will almost be the exact right age for Ellie. Recall in the game Joel thinks Ellie is 12, and Ellie snottily corrects him that she's 14 actually. So it's preferable, I think, for Ellie to look younger than her age, which would be impossible for any girl over the age of 16 to pull off.

Ratchet by far has the best chance. The other two have been in film hell for years, and TLoU will likely end up there too. That plot, as much as I'm not a fan of it overall, was meant for a game. A three hour movie, or even a trilogy of them, won't have that level of depth.

Considering Ratchet is being written by TJ Fixman, who wrote the most recent six games and the fantastic comic series, and considering Insomniac has had a big hand in ensuring quality, and considering it's got the best audience possible for a game movie (family friendly content with a good amount of adult-friendly humor, a la Lego Movie), it's gonna be hard NOT to do well critically. The only room for error is the celeb casting, but even then from trailers and such it seems like the casting was nailed. Only one I'm unsure about is Stallone but he sounded good too.

And my vote for most likely to be rotten based on what we've seen goes to Sly. That artstyle plus replacing fan-favorite Kevin Miller with "an A-list type" that's not even C-list as the voice of Sly, without asking Miller at all, is not gonna turn out well without major changes. (And fun fact, the film's director hasn't even heard from the film's crew at all recently, so it might get canned anyway.)