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Forums - Sales Discussion - July NPD 2015 prediction result.

Ryng on 19 August 2015
binary solo said:
Now that you have a few month's of prediction data you should do a meta analysis of people's prediction patterns relative to their platform preferences (if known). For instance, do PS4 fans over predict PS4 sales, or under-predict Xb one / Wii U sales?

I make this thread for me.



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binary solo on 19 August 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
binary solo said:
Now that you have a few month's of prediction data you should do a meta analysis of people's prediction patterns relative to their platform preferences (if known). For instance, do PS4 fans over predict PS4 sales, or under-predict Xb one / Wii U sales?

I make this thread for me.

So you tend to be mostly over-optimistic for Wii U but pretty balanced for everything else. So for Wii U, to improve your accuracy you should come up with the number they way you have been, then subtract about 10%. If you think 70K, then you should predict 63K.



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Ryng on 19 August 2015
binary solo said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

I make this thread for me.

So you tend to be mostly over-optimistic for Wii U but pretty balanced for everything else. So for Wii U, to improve your accuracy you should come up with the number they way you have been, then subtract about 10%. If you think 70K, then you should predict 63K.

oh damn, that's not always happen, for example in February. :p

And for be correct, in May, my original Wii U prediction was 40k. but then, i see the crazy Splatoon numbers in Japan, and i change my prediction in 50k.

Final sales: 43k

Damn squid... >:(