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Forums - Sony Discussion - Will PS4 have a price cut this year?

 

What do you think will happen?

$100 price cut 30 11.19%
 
$50 price cut 93 34.70%
 
Bundles 145 54.10%
 
Total:268

They have no reason to cut the price.



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Targeted promotional offers is all we will get. There won't be a PS4 price cut the Xbone slim is released.  That will pressure Sony to move on pricing.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

I see a combination of a $50 pricecut and bundling happening. Sony will want to take full advantage of their marketing rights to Star Wars and Black Ops 3, so I think there will be a bundle for each game at $350. Sony might do another bundle with the Uncharted Collection. On Black Friday, we might see a PS4 + Blops 3 + Star Wars bundle for the core and a PS4 + Tearaway Unfolded + LEGO Jurassic World bundle for the families/casuals.



Shadow1980 said:
Eddie_Raja said:


You see I mostly agree with you, but the thing is the PS2 needed to cut its price in order to compete with new consoles.  One of them was launched cheaper and stronger, and the other one was like 50% stronger and the same price.  Of course they dropped the price!

But right now the fact is the PS4's only competition is about half as strong and selling not even 20% cheaper.  At the very least I think Sony is waiting for the X1 to be $300 or for sales to slow down (Which they are not).

Here's what the sales situation in Q4 2001 and Q1 2002 in the U.S. was:

Q4 '01
PS2: 3222k
Xbox: 1422k
GC: 1236k

Q1 '02
PS2: 1140k
Xbox: 403k
GC: 251k

The PS2 wasn't even close to being threatened by the Xbox or GameCube, not in the U.S., not in Europe, and not in Japan. The PS2 had a supermajority in all regions. That renders moot the argument that the PS4 doesn't need a price cut because it's the market leader. The PS2 was more dominant than the PS4 and it still got a price cut. Even if the GC and Xbox launched later (and the former at a lower price and with better specs), it was clear at the time that the PS2 needed a price cut the least of any console since the NES. Additionally, the XBO is performing considerably better than the original Xbox, at least in the U.S. and Europe (Xbox barely registers in Japan so they really aren't part of the equation). In the U.S. the PS4-XBO gap is close enough to where the XBO has squeaked out a victory several times in the U.S. (Dec. '13, Nov. & Dec. '14, & April '15).

In the U.S. and Japan at least, the PS4 is not the unstoppable juggernaut the PS2 was. It's sales are roughly flat YoY in the U.S. and only barely up in Europe. Its sales are good but not mind-blowing. Its sales won't experience any appreciable growth without a price drop.


What were the Q2 '02 results?



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

Clearly, in order for Sony's higher sales predictions and it lower revenue predictions to be coherent, there has to be a price drop. I calculated that to be $50. It could be more, but given Sony's increased sales predictions, there is nothing smart about walking away from revenue when the demand is there.



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$50 and bundles for US. Sony might not do worldwide pricecut but they must counter Microsoft's holiday lineup somehow in the US. Sony could also push 1TB SKU with the old price but nevertheless people will get better value than last year.



I cannot imagine toilet-free life.

Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.

-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198

Sony will only cut the price if their bundles don't sustain a number that will allow them to hit their targets.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Not a chance, at this point Sony has no reasons to cut the price.



                                                                                     

Shadow1980 said:
Eddie_Raja said:


What were the Q2 '02 results?


PS2: 1423k
Xbox: 572k
GC: 406k

All three systems got a price cut in May 2002. The PS2 and Xbox were dropped from $300 to $200 while the GC went from $200 to $150. Sony announced their price cut first, followed by MS and finally Nintendo.


So have you noticed the RATIO of sales?

PS2: Everyone else = ~1.45:1

PS4: Everyone else= ~1.85:1


From the perspective of ratio, the PS4 is capturing market relative to its competition faster than the PS2 did.  It does not need a price drop as badly.



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

Shadow1980 said:
Eddie_Raja said:


So have you noticed the RATIO of sales?

PS2: Everyone else = ~1.45:1

PS4: Everyone else= ~1.85:1


From the perspective of ratio, the PS4 is capturing market relative to its competition faster than the PS2 did.  It does not need a price drop as badly.

Um, what? Through the first half of 2002 the PS2 averaged 61% market share and outsold the second-place system nearly three-to-one. Meanwhile, the PS4 hasn't been able to average a simple majority market through the first half of this year (the NPD had it at 48% so as of June) and has sold only 21.7% more than the second-place console. When you're talking just market share, 61% is a huge step up from 48% (at 60% you're outselling the entire competition 3-to-2, while at 48% the competition is outselling you by 8%), and don't forget that the third-place console this gen is performing significantly worse than the third-place system in the sixth generation.

The PS4 may be winning in the U.S., but the only place it's dominating is Europe. But even in Europe it's sales have only improved YoY this year about what the PS2 did in the U.S. in Jan.-April period of 2002 versus the same period in 2001, and said sales improvement for the PS4 may be largely due to supply constraints not being an issue like they apparently were last year. The PS4 is no PS2 when it comes to being an unstoppable juggernaut, and sales aren't going to have any truly significant growth without a price cut.


The Wii U came out a year early, and frankly the Xbox One's numbers are inflated by how frontloaded it was.  If you remove 5 mil from both the PS4 and Xbox One (Theit 2013 numbers), and then remove the 4.5mil the Wii U had from its early launch - it is 20 v 8 + 5.5.  Thus again you can see the PS4 has been selling at 60% of the market share.

I am not saying the PS4 will sell as well as the PS2, but it will "win" as well.  Maybe the PS2 didn't need a price drop and Sony could have made more money back then.  They certainly need the money now ;).

 

P.S.  Remeber I did say that I thought and still kinda think they will drop the price to $300 this fall, but it they don't my explanation is an attempt to explain why they wouldn't.  Would Sony give up 5-10% more marketshare for 20-30%  more profit?  I think so!



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]