Taking the bills for tonight
The definitive evidence that video games turn people into mass murderers
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Seahawks gonna go on a streak!!!!
Estelle and Adol... best characters ever! XD
ANNOUNCEMENT - Week 9 Results and Standings, Midseason Report
There were only 13 games in week 9, but that still isn't excuse enough for a result that shows nobody with double digit wins. Once you move beyond the top 8, you are already looking at people who barely squeezed out a positive record for the week. noname2200 was not only the sole player to get the winner of MNF right, he called the margin of victory as well.
The thing that is interesting for the standings is that the top performers of the week were positioned either very high or very low in the running totals, so the middle of the league lost ground on the top while opening the door for the people in the hunt; #23 is now only two wins behind a playoff spot. castor's lead shrank to three games, but at this pace it would still take a few weeks until a lead change happens.
View all collected data here.
Now for the promised comparisons with previous years of the prediction league. First off, a look at the records of the leaders through week 9. Since the NFL scheduled bye weeks differently in each year, the total number of picks in each given year can differ up to this point, making the win percentage the better point of reference.
2012 - insomniac17: 90-42 (.682), led by 4 wins; finished 177-79 (.691), led by 8 wins.
2013 - Mendicate Bias: 89-44 (.669), led by 0 wins; burninmylight finished 172-84 (.672), led by 5 wins.
2014 - MTZehvor: 94-40 (.701), led by 4 wins; finished 178-78 (.695), led by 4 wins.
2015 - castor: 91-41 (.689), leads by 3 wins.
What's noteworthy here is that a 4-win-lead over #2 wasn't given away in previous years; castor had such a lead through week 8 of this season. So far the only competitive year has been 2013; the final tally shows a 5-win-lead, but that's a result of upset picks that didn't pay off (burninmylight had entered week 17 with a lead of 2 wins).
Next up, the cutoff for the top 10 in each year. Since positions change frequently in that area over the course of the season, names aren't listed.
2012 - 80-52 (.606), 162-94 (.633).
2013 - 83-50 (.624), 159-97 (.621).
2014 - 87-47 (.649), 165-91 (.645).
2015 - 83-49 (.629).
Quite similar results over the years, but 2014 is a positive outlier. The whole season seemed to have fewer surprises than usual.
The last of the comparisons is for the final playoff spot.
2012 - 73-59 (.553), 153-103 (.598).
2013 - 78-55 (.586), 144-112 (.563).
2014 - 83-51 (.619), 161-95 (.629).
2015 - 79-53 (.598).
Admittedly, this comparison needs a lot of explanation. In 2012, ultimately only 14 players qualified for the playoffs because a couple of guys decided to do a troll job on the other. If both of them had made picks for week 17, both would have been in the playoffs regardless of their record. If one of them had foregone to make picks, both would have failed to enter the playoffs because the league was already down to only 16 players, so another dropout would have resulted in a reduction of playoff spots to 14. In the end neither one of them made any picks, so in the above stats #14's record is listed, unlike in the later years which had 16 participants in the playoffs.
2013's record for #16 is so low because someone who missed more than 20 picks made it in. This was a surprise because that required the unlikely scenario that two people would forego to make week 17 picks, but that's exactly what happened. And to make this whole thing even more weird, the final #16 didn't count on that to happen anymore and called the season quits right after submitting his week 17 picks, so he missed his chance to actually do something in the playoffs. Talk about a wasted opportunity.
That leaves 2014 as the only realistic point of reference when you want to know how good you'll have to be to sneak into the playoffs. Although even that comes with the caveat that 2014 was a surprisingly good year for the prediction league all around, so a win percentage of .600 might just do the trick this year.
Links to the spreadsheets from previous years:
Also noteworthy, title defense campaigns have been less than stellar.
insomniac17 finished in 11th place in 2013.
burninmylight finished in 14th place in 2014.
MTZehvor is on track for a finish outside of the top 10 in 2015.
It's very much the same thing for the winners of the playoff round.
insomniac17 got eliminated in the wild-card round in 2013.
Zelhawks37 missed the playoffs altogether in 2014.
How amp316 will fare is up in the air due to the nature of the playoffs, but he's on track to qualify for them.
The bracket predictions were added in 2014 and their champion (VancelX) is not participating this year.
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