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The NFL Thread 2015: Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 50

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Who will win Super Bowl 50?

Patriots 116 25.00%
 
Seahawks 41 8.84%
 
Colts 7 1.51%
 
Packers 42 9.05%
 
Broncos 85 18.32%
 
Ravens 8 1.72%
 
Cowboys 18 3.88%
 
Panthers 56 12.07%
 
Other 74 15.95%
 
Scoreboard 17 3.66%
 
Total:464
RolStoppable said:

My argument had several scenarios and you merely picked the one that was the easiest to attack. Regardless, let's focus on the key point, why 14 teams is better than either 12 or 16. The simple answer is 25 years of statistics. It's much more common that the 7th seed has a positive record than the sixth having an even or negative record, so the likelyhood that a seventh playoff spot would lead to many 8-8 teams making the cut isn't big. Additionally, the entire idea to have 14 playoff teams exists because it is so common that the 7th seed has a positive record. However, if you look at the 8th seed of any given year, the average record is close to 8-8 and that's why 16 playoff teams is too many.

I wouldn't say that you being a Patriots fan works as support for your stance, because it can be easily viewed the exact opposite way. Because your team didn't get into the playoffs with an 11-5 record (something that has a less than 1% chance of happening), no 7th seed shall make the cut, ever.

Finally, there's the argument that a 7th playoff spot in each conference would give more teams something to play for towards the end of the season, and that's something you keep ignoring. You are so focused on that one additional playoff game per conference that might suck that you lose sight of those many meaningless games that are played each December. The NFL tried to soften that problem by making week 17 all about divisional games in the last two or three years, but that didn't really help much. Despite bitter rivalries, many teams opt to phone it in. Of course, meaningless games will always exist, but 14 playoff spots would reduce the number of such games more than anything else the NFL has tried.

Firstly, I picked the scenario that is most likely to happen under a system where the teams with the six best records make the playoffs, as I am proposing. If we implemented a seven team scenario, with the top 7 records making the playoffs, last year would have included the 9-7 Houston Texans and the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers (who admittedly did make it under the equally silly current playoff rules). The year before, the 8-8 New York Jets and the 8-7-1 Green Bay Packers (again, admittedly made under the silly playoff rules) would have made it. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a single team better than 9-7 who would have benefitted from this, and even there, it would have resulted in another .500 or worse team (the Pittsburgh Steelers) making the playoffs in the other conference. The VAST majority of the time, the seventh best team is a fairly mediocre squad as opposed to a genuinely good one left out because the conference was so stacked.

I can't say I really agree with the exciting point, either, especially now that the games are divisional, as you mentioned. So instead of two teams phoning it again, we get to watch a couple of really desperate mediocre teams playing against good teams that have either already clincehd their division and are playing their backups or against bad teams that won't care regardless. Either way, it's not particularly exciting.

More than anything else, what I dislike is punishing the number two seed by taking away their bye just for the sake of letting what is usually a pretty mediocre squad in the playoffs. If we have to operate under division winners get into the playoffs regardless of how bad they are rules, then I'm more open to it, but nothing about this strikes me as better than a system where the top 6 records get in.



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RolStoppable said:
BAL-PIT 1 NYJ-MIA 2
JAC-IND 2 NYG-BUF 2
CAR-TB 1 PHI-WAS 1 OAK-CHI 1 HOU-ATL 2
KC-CIN 2 CLE-SD 2 GB-SF 1 STL-ARI 2
MIN-DEN 2 DAL-NO 2 BYE   DET-SEA SEA by 13






BAL-PIT 1 NYJ-MIA 1 JAC-IND 2 NYG-BUF 2
CAR-TB 1 PHI-WAS 1 OAK-CHI 1 HOU-ATL 2
KC-CIN 2 CLE-SD 2 GB-SF 1 STL-ARI 2
MIN-DEN 1 DAL-NO 2 BYE   DET-SEA 2 by 3

My ban only lasted for a day so I'm back and ready to roll.

And I finally got my Thursday pick right. Have no idea how some of you are perfect on the season for that. The teams playing are so bad that I feel like it's always a toss up.



                                           

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BAL-PIT 2 NYJ-MIA 1
JAC-IND 2
NYG-BUF 2
CAR-TB 1
PHI-WAS 1
OAK-CHI 1
HOU-ATL 2
KC-CIN 2
CLE-SD 2
GB-SF 1
STL-ARI 2
MIN-DEN 2
DAL-NO 2
BYE   DET-SEA SEA by 14



BAL-PIT 1 NYJ-MIA 1
JAC-IND 2 NYG-BUF 2
CAR-TB 1 PHI-WAS 1 OAK-CHI 1 HOU-ATL 2
KC-CIN 2 CLE-SD 2 GB-SF 1 STL-ARI 2
MIN-DEN 2 DAL-NO 2 BYE   DET-SEA by X 17


This was an easy week to make picks. The only ones I really struggled with were BAL/PIT and DAL/NO.



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MTZehvor said:

Firstly, I picked the scenario that is most likely to happen under a system where the teams with the six best records make the playoffs, as I am proposing. If we implemented a seven team scenario, with the top 7 records making the playoffs, last year would have included the 9-7 Houston Texans and the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers (who admittedly did make it under the equally silly current playoff rules). The year before, the 8-8 New York Jets and the 8-7-1 Green Bay Packers (again, admittedly made under the silly playoff rules) would have made it. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a single team better than 9-7 who would have benefitted from this, and even there, it would have resulted in another .500 or worse team (the Pittsburgh Steelers) making the playoffs in the other conference. The VAST majority of the time, the seventh best team is a fairly mediocre squad as opposed to a genuinely good one left out because the conference was so stacked.

I can't say I really agree with the exciting point, either, especially now that the games are divisional, as you mentioned. So instead of two teams phoning it again, we get to watch a couple of really desperate mediocre teams playing against good teams that have either already clincehd their division and are playing their backups or against bad teams that won't care regardless. Either way, it's not particularly exciting.

More than anything else, what I dislike is punishing the number two seed by taking away their bye just for the sake of letting what is usually a pretty mediocre squad in the playoffs. If we have to operate under division winners get into the playoffs regardless of how bad they are rules, then I'm more open to it, but nothing about this strikes me as better than a system where the top 6 records get in.

Last year would have had the Texans (9-7) and Eagles (10-6). In 2013 it would have been an 8-8 AFC team (there were four) and the Cardinals (10-6). In 2012 the Steelers (8-8) and the Bears (10-6). That's three years in a row where a 10-6 team got left out. All of them from the NFC, but it's just the reality of things that the AFC hasn't had many good teams in recent years. Might as well make the argument that only four AFC teams should be in the playoffs under such circumstances, because there aren't enough genuinely good squads to make it six.

But it's going to be more interesting than what we currently get.

If the number two seed gets punished with an additional playoff game, your point about making the group of six playoff teams can be used here. You said that teams that want to be in the playoffs just have to get a top 6 record, so why shouldn't a team that wants the bye week just get the best record in the conference?

EDIT: Completely unrelated to your hatred for mediocre teams.

There have been news that the Dolphins have intern problems between coaches and players, and a possible firing of the defensive coordinator if the Dolphins lose today. Rumor has it that the players won a debate against the defensive coordinator, so the defense will be allowed to play simpler schemes which they believe will allow them to make some plays for a change. Meanwhile, the Jets have brought toilet paper with them.

I am sticking with my Dolphins pick, but would have changed it, if there hadn't been news about the players getting to play like they want. Because otherwise this team certainly wouldn't have played for coaches on the chopping block. Of course, we'll still have to see if it was really the fault of bad coaching that sank the Dolphins in previous weeks.



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MTZehvor said:
I'd personally rather stick with two teams getting bye weeks, especially since the #1 seed is so often decided by tiebreakers.

Only twice in the last 12 or 13 years has the #1 seed been decided by anything other than head to head. In that same period four times the #2 seed has been decided. By this logic you should be bothered even less by a 2nd seed team not earning a bye, since "so often" they only got that #2 seed based on conference win percentage.

MTZehvor said:
...such as...what? A mediocre team getting pounded into the ground by the two seed? Gee, sign me up.

Sorry but you don't know what you're talking about if you're just going to blindly assume the 7th best team in each conference every year is "mediocre". And I assume you've never watched playoff football if you're also assuming the #2 seed will automatically "pound" them. You're not really arguing with logic here, just blanket statements that aren't based in reality.


MTZehvor said:
I'd argue, most of the time, it won't be good football. It'll be a team like the Bills or the Dolphins from last year getting beat down by a two seed.

Well Miami would not have made it in last season. Nor would the Bills, they'd have been the 4th ranked 9-7 team. But the Texans were ending the season on a roll and were playing good defense. It also would have given the Chiefs AND Chargers something to play for in week 17 instead of just the Chargers. In 2013 you would have had the 10-6 Cardinals in after winning 7 of their last 9, losing only two games by field goals, each to 10+ win playoff teams.

These aren't 5 or 6 win teams being allowed in :)

MTZehvor said:
...by the same token, this argument can be used the exact opposite way. The 2 seed might get a player injured or have a bad call in the additional game they're forced to play now and lose to an undeserving team as a result. Injuries happen, bad calls happen. The way to make them an even bigger deal than they were before is to give them another game to happen in.

Nah, early season injuries a team bounces back from are not nearly the same as an injury happening in a playoff game. Furthermore we're talking about the regular season that sets up the playoffs. Not the playoffs. Pointing out that the same can happen in a playoff game doesn't negate how important the regular season is. It's not the same argument. The same argument would be me coming back and saying yes, injuries can happen! Lets play 12 regular season games.


MTZehvor said:

...this is exactly why I would say division winners should meet criteria outside of winning the division. The NFC South was a total dumpster fire of a division last year. No one from that division was a playoff quality team. The mere fact that all anyone in that division had to do was be the best out of an awful group should say more than enough about things. I suppose there's a chance of a really strong division just beating up on each other to the point where no one can make the playoffs without division winning rules, but honestly, I don't think I've ever seen that happen. We have seen a number of awful teams that shouldn't have made the playoffs make the playoffs. Until the former becomes a reality, I don't think it's worth worrying about.

We've seen more wild card teams get dominated in the playoffs than we have seen 7 win division champions. I guess we should just eliminate all wild cards? It's ok, the change is coming sooner rather than later.



BAL-PIT 1
NYJ-MIA 1
JAC-IND 2
NYG-BUF 2
CAR-TB 1
PHI-WAS 1
OAK-CHI 1
HOU-ATL 2
KC-CIN 1
CLE-SD 2
GB-SF 2
STL-ARI 2
MIN-DEN 2
DAL-NO 2
BYE   DET-SEA 2 by 20


Broncos have a very banged up offensive line, Ryan Harris moving to LT and 2nd year player Schofield making his first NFL start today at RT. So the worst part of the Broncos team gets even worse. I predict a ton of screens and short passes, which will bring the defense up and make running as hard as it's been all season. Hopefully they put Peypey in shotgun early a little and let him throw deep and they connect on a couple, loosen the defense up.



Andrew Luck is officially not playing today, and that team sucks even WITH him at QB, seriously wondering if the Jags will now win that game...I think I'll keep my pick though



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