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Forums - Sales Discussion - EA Predicts 49 Million PS4/Xbox One Combined by End of 2015

During its quarterly earnings conference, Electronic Arts CEO Andrew Wilson shared the company’s outlook on the current generation console, mentioning that the company predicts a combined installed base of 49 million between PS4 and Xbox One by the end of the calendar year.

Compared with the previous generation in the same period, installed base hardware is up 44% and attach rate for software is slightly ahead as well. It’s 6.1 games per console against 5.1 in the PS3 and Xbox 360 generation.

Chief Financial Officer Blake Jorgensen also mentioned that Sony’s announcement today raising the forecast for PS4 sales this year is “hugely positive,” and that every time Sony and Microsoft release information it’s a positive surprise. He also added that NPD data shows the success of the one terabyte Xbox One and that the continued strength of both Sony’s and Microsoft’s product mix is “really strong.”

More: http://www.dualshockers.com/2015/07/30/ea-predicts-49-million-ps4-and-xbox-one-continued-by-end-of-2015-ps4-forecast-increase-hugely-positive/

What do you guys think? Will it be less, spot on or more? Personally I'm leaning towards more.



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With ~35 PS4s shipped by then, it'll certainly be more.



Ka-pi96 said:
That's what, 12-13m more than what they are now? Considering the holiday period that sounds really quite likely.

Yeah, it seems really low to me, especially looking at Sony's PS4 forecast. Sony is expecting to have shipped 38.8million by March 31st 2016, which should be around 36.4million based on January - March PS4 shipments (2.4million). So lets just give ourselves a lot, and I mean a lot of space and make that 35million with an insane 2 million on shelves, then we have 33million sold through for PS4 at the end of 2015. And then Xbox One 16million sold through as of December 31st? No way, that will be millions more.

Either EA is leaving out certain markets (Asia, RoW maybe) or they have the math skills of a 4 year old.



Sounds a tad conservative, but like they said they are surprised each time, so hopefully they will be again.



Either this number is far too low or EA expect the XB1 to do really badly from here on out. I'm going with the former.



 

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GribbleGrunger said:
Either this number is far too low or EA expect the XB1 to do really badly from here on out. I'm going with the former.

I'm going with EA leaving out certain markets. If they genuinely think PS4 and Xbox One will have sold through a combined 49million at the end of the year WW they have the math skills of a 4 year old.



poklane said:

I'm going with EA leaving out certain markets. If they genuinely think PS4 and Xbox One will have sold through a combined 49million at the end of the year WW they have the math skills of a 4 year old.

What would they have left out though? Surely they'll have the figures for Europe. It's getting pretty damned close the the US in terms of software and hardware terms.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


I think it's safe to say Xbox One is over tracked on vgchartz. Neogaf estimates are a lot lower than ours. I still think this is low overall. This holiday is setting up to be a blood bath, that should push sales beyond these numbers.



GribbleGrunger said:
poklane said:

I'm going with EA leaving out certain markets. If they genuinely think PS4 and Xbox One will have sold through a combined 49million at the end of the year WW they have the math skills of a 4 year old.

What would they have left out though? Surely they'll have the figures for Europe. It's getting pretty damned close the the US in terms of software and hardware terms.

Pretty much everything except NA and the EU.



Ka-pi96 said:
That's what, 12-13m more than what they are now? Considering the holiday period that sounds really quite likely.

I'd expect 12-13m worldwide in just Nov+Dec alone. Expecting somewhere around 34M PS4 + 21M Xbox One by the year end. There estimate seems way to low.