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XB1 can't beat PS4 in a year just thanks holidays sales... ???

Forums - Sales Discussion - XB1 can't beat PS4 in a year just thanks holidays sales... ???

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I think people are putting to much stock on what happened last holliday to happen again. MS almost giving away the x1 and sony doing nearly nothing. The xbox division has lost to much money already and has not gained any ground in the US thanks to thouse deals, I dont see them do in something that extreme again. Sure they will do another temp pricecut and like one more game, but thats it, not the $70 pricecut + 3 games + 1year live + $50 giftcard that was given last year.

While sony now has some room to actually drop the price and remain profitable. They can, if they want to not drop the price yet, Give thouse savings in bundles. Keep the price at $400 and add like 3 games and a year of ps+. WHat I see most likely is that they will add a bunch of old first party IPs like infamus, killzone, knack, last of us, x|x-2, even bloodbourne and god of war. This way it wont eat their profit that much and they can add like 5 games. The games might be old, but if your buying a ps4 you probably dont have any of them and will seem like great offer and offer a lot of diferent games that any gamer will get at least one they will like. Sadly, the xbox does not have the luxury of numerous first party exclusive that this deal will be benefitiol for them.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
I think people are putting to much stock on what happened last holliday to happen again. MS almost giving away the x1 and sony doing nearly nothing. The xbox division has lost to much money already and has not gained any ground in the US thanks to thouse deals, I dont see them do in something that extreme again. Sure they will do another temp pricecut and like one more game, but thats it, not the $70 pricecut + 3 games + 1year live + $50 giftcard that was given last year.

While sony now has some room to actually drop the price and remain profitable. They can, if they want to not drop the price yet, Give thouse savings in bundles. Keep the price at $400 and add like 3 games and a year of ps+. WHat I see most likely is that they will add a bunch of old first party IPs like infamus, killzone, knack, last of us, x|x-2, even bloodbourne and god of war. This way it wont eat their profit that much and they can add like 5 games. The games might be old, but if your buying a ps4 you probably dont have any of them and will seem like great offer and offer a lot of diferent games that any gamer will get at least one they will like. Sadly, the xbox does not have the luxury of numerous first party exclusive that this deal will be benefitiol for them.


The XB1 has Halo 5... Seriusly, what even are you talking about?



Ryng_Tolu said:
eva01beserk said:
I think people are putting to much stock on what happened last holliday to happen again. MS almost giving away the x1 and sony doing nearly nothing. The xbox division has lost to much money already and has not gained any ground in the US thanks to thouse deals, I dont see them do in something that extreme again. Sure they will do another temp pricecut and like one more game, but thats it, not the $70 pricecut + 3 games + 1year live + $50 giftcard that was given last year.

While sony now has some room to actually drop the price and remain profitable. They can, if they want to not drop the price yet, Give thouse savings in bundles. Keep the price at $400 and add like 3 games and a year of ps+. WHat I see most likely is that they will add a bunch of old first party IPs like infamus, killzone, knack, last of us, x|x-2, even bloodbourne and god of war. This way it wont eat their profit that much and they can add like 5 games. The games might be old, but if your buying a ps4 you probably dont have any of them and will seem like great offer and offer a lot of diferent games that any gamer will get at least one they will like. Sadly, the xbox does not have the luxury of numerous first party exclusive that this deal will be benefitiol for them.


The XB1 has Halo 5... Seriusly, what even are you talking about?

Im going to asume that it was because english is not your main language and not that you dint read what I wrote. But I said for thouse deals that OLD EXCLUSIVES will be offered in large numbers. Not that new exclusives are coming to ps4 and not x1. Most of the x1's exclusive liberay has ported over to pc and a few have ported over to ps4. This has not affected sony. It can be a big push for ps4 cuz these old games have no other way of being played than to own a ps4, but for MS, old games tend to go to pc at the very least, so them being offered for the x1 on hollidays wont be that big of a push, since I can play thouse games elsewhere.

And yes, MS has prooben that money is no obstacle. They can offer the same amount of content as sony even if they have to get third party games, but my point is that it will cost sony a lot less to do this, so I see it more likely. Like someone said before, americans like deals and will buy it if they think it hs great value. Adding a bunch of games, even old ones makes the bundle look a lot more valuable.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

Protendo said:
dangerguy said:
I don't know if you guys are talking about Sony dropping the price of the PS4 I can assure with 100% certainty that is not happening this year. There is absolutely no way. This is going to be a massive holiday and they're not going to leave money on the table like that.


Just like the PS2?

 

With the exception of the PS3, which obviously had its struggles early on, Sony has never dropped a console's price prior to a holiday. It's always been May. The PS4 is exceeding all previous systems and leading up to a massive holiday with huge marketing partnerships. There will not be a PS4 price drop this year.



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As is usually the case, the raw numbers themselves don't tell us much besides who "won." Context is important. We must always look to see what factors, if any, could have influenced sales numbers. Typically, the biggest short-term influence is price cuts, which usually (but not always) provide boosts lasting many months. Certain major software releases are another factor, but usually only provide a boost lasting a month at best.

By the end of Q3 '03, the difference between the Xbox and GC was 285k in the Xbox's favor. Percentage-wise the Xbox sold 25.6% more units than the GC through the first nine months of 2003. However, the GC had a price cut in late September, lowering the price from $150 to $100. That caused a huge spike in sales. The GC's Q4 '03 was 73% bigger than its Q4 '02 and represented an astonishing two-thirds of the GC's sales in 2003, noticeably outside Q4's typical share of yearly sales. An additional factor that may have boosted sales was the launch of Mario Kart Double Dash in November.

Meanwhile, the Xbox didn't have anything to boost sales that year. It had a $20 price cut in June that had no measurable effect on sales (a rarity for a price cut) and no real system-sellers that year. Not only was Q4 '03 flat YoY for the Xbox, but overall 2003 sales were flat from 2002. The Xbox sold a total of 1788k units in Q4 '03, 383k fewer than the GC. That's what gave the GC the edge for that year (it beat the Xbox by only 98k for the year).

[charts forthcoming; I'm trying to eat and type at the same time right now]

Looking at the PS4 vs. the XBO, in 2014 the PS4 was at 2507k by the end of Q3 while the XBO was only at 1675. That's a difference of 832k in the PS4's favor. In terms of percentage the PS4 sold 49.7% more units than the XBO through the first nine months of last year. The XBO received a second price cut (if we consider the de-bundling of Kinect a de facto price cut) in November that caused a huge spike in sales. Q4 sales represented about 61.7% of the XBO's sales in 2014, again much higher than the norm for Q4 sales. However, due to the much greater gap between the PS4 and XBO going into Q4 last year, the XBO could not accomplish what the GC did. It did sell 496k more units than the PS4, which means the PS4 still outsold the XBO by 336k last year.

2015 will likely be very different from 2014. While the gap is proportionally much smaller so far this year (the PS4 has sold only 21.7% more units than the XBO through the first six months), this holiday is likely to favor the PS4. The PS4 is likely getting a price cut some time this fall, because A) no major console in at least the past four generations besides the Wii has gone more than two years without a price cut, and B) PS4 sales are relatively flat YoY, at least in the U.S. A price cut will undoubtedly provide a substantial boost to sales. If Sony drops the PS4 to $300, then there's no way for MS to counter it without losing a ton of money. The lowest the XBO will go this holiday is $300. A price cut alone should be more than enough to ensure the PS4's victory this year. And since the price cut isn't until late this year, most of its effects will be next year. It's entirely possible that Q1-Q3 2016 will be far, far higher than the same period this year with a $300 price tag as well as major software releases like Uncharted 4 to further aid it, so 2016 will likely be the PS4's peak year and will likely be far enough ahead of the XBO by time the holidays roll around next year to win overall for the year.



Shadow1980 said:

2015 will likely be very different from 2014. While the gap is proportionally much smaller so far this year (the PS4 has sold only 21.7% more units than the XBO through the first six months), this holiday is likely to favor the PS4. The PS4 is likely getting a price cut some time this fall, because A) no major console in at least the past four generations besides the Wii has gone more than two years without a price cut, and B) PS4 sales are relatively flat YoY, at least in the U.S. A price cut will undoubtedly provide a substantial boost to sales. If Sony drops the PS4 to $300, then there's no way for MS to counter it without losing a ton of money. The lowest the XBO will go this holiday is $300. A price cut alone should be more than enough to ensure the PS4's victory this year. And since the price cut isn't until late this year, most of its effects will be next year. It's entirely possible that Q1-Q3 2016 will be far, far higher than the same period this year with a $300 price tag as well as major software releases like Uncharted 4 to further aid it, so 2016 will likely be the PS4's peak year and will likely be far enough ahead of the XBO by time the holidays roll around next year to win overall for the year.

I hope I am vvrong because I believe consoles should be getting more pricecuts to boost the softvvare video game economy. But I do not think the PS4 vvill get a permanent pricecut this year. I think Sony has learned the value of bundling that has taken last gen and this gen by storm and vvill continue to add 'value' to the $400 pricetag. In the PS1 and PS2 gens bundling vvas not very important and so price cuts had to happen to continue boosting hardvvare and softvvare. But it vvasn't the most profitable. PS3 had pricecuts to stay competitive ala XB1.

I hope for 2 $100 pricecuts personally to match the vviis 2 pricecuts. And if that vvere to happen then 3 years and 5ish years for each.



Farsala said:

I hope I am vvrong because I believe consoles should be getting more pricecuts to boost the softvvare video game economy. But I do not think the PS4 vvill get a permanent pricecut this year. I think Sony has learned the value of bundling that has taken last gen and this gen by storm and vvill continue to add 'value' to the $400 pricetag. In the PS1 and PS2 gens bundling vvas not very important and so price cuts had to happen to continue boosting hardvvare and softvvare. But it vvasn't the most profitable. PS3 had pricecuts to stay competitive ala XB1.

I hope for 2 $100 pricecuts personally to match the vviis 2 pricecuts. And if that vvere to happen then 3 years and 5ish years for each.

As I mentioned in another thread, I think the PS4 will get a price cut this year, and it will likely be a $100 drop. The PS2 was even more dominant and selling even better than the PS4 has been (in the U.S. and Japan, at least), yet it already had its first price cut by this point in its life. No major console released in the past 25 years, except for the Wii, has gone more than two years without a price cut, and except for the the 360 every console that launched at $300 or more got a $100 drop for its first price cut. Also, sales are relatively flat from last year, and the only thing that will spur further growth in sales over a long period of time is price cuts. Neither games nor bundles will do much to spur growth over any appreciable time span. Price cuts have consistently demonstrated that they are by far the biggest grower of sales there is.

P.S.: Why do you always substitute your W's with two V's?



Shadow1980 said:
Farsala said:

I hope I am vvrong because I believe consoles should be getting more pricecuts to boost the softvvare video game economy. But I do not think the PS4 vvill get a permanent pricecut this year. I think Sony has learned the value of bundling that has taken last gen and this gen by storm and vvill continue to add 'value' to the $400 pricetag. In the PS1 and PS2 gens bundling vvas not very important and so price cuts had to happen to continue boosting hardvvare and softvvare. But it vvasn't the most profitable. PS3 had pricecuts to stay competitive ala XB1.

I hope for 2 $100 pricecuts personally to match the vviis 2 pricecuts. And if that vvere to happen then 3 years and 5ish years for each.

As I mentioned in another thread, I think the PS4 will get a price cut this year, and it will likely be a $100 drop. The PS2 was even more dominant and selling even better than the PS4 has been (in the U.S. and Japan, at least), yet it already had its first price cut by this point in its life. No major console released in the past 25 years, except for the Wii, has gone more than two years without a price cut, and except for the the 360 every console that launched at $300 or more got a $100 drop for its first price cut. Also, sales are relatively flat from last year, and the only thing that will spur further growth in sales over a long period of time is price cuts. Neither games nor bundles will do much to spur growth over any appreciable time span. Price cuts have consistently demonstrated that they are by far the biggest grower of sales there is.

P.S.: Why do you always substitute your W's with two V's?

I hope so, but factors have changed. Including mass bundling, Sonys financials, Sonys history of pricecuts, lackluster softvvare.



IMO the Xone doesn't even has the US secured for this year, and globally it wouldn't manage to do it, not even with a 150 $ price cut IMO. The PS4 will only pull ahead further and further this generation, there is no battle for #1 or #2 this gen.