750k sounds about right. Will probably do 200-400 first week, then ~50k+ until the year ends.
What do you think Rise of the Tomb Raider sales will be by the end of this year? | |||
250,000 Units | 54 | 15.25% | |
500,000 Units | 72 | 20.34% | |
750,000 Units | 61 | 17.23% | |
1.000,000 Units | 60 | 16.95% | |
1,250,000 Units | 36 | 10.17% | |
1,500,000 Units | 27 | 7.63% | |
1,750,000 Units | 3 | 0.85% | |
2,000,000 Units | 18 | 5.08% | |
2,250,000 Units | 9 | 2.54% | |
2,500,000,000,000,000,000... | 14 | 3.95% | |
Total: | 354 |
750k sounds about right. Will probably do 200-400 first week, then ~50k+ until the year ends.
sasquatchmontana said:
99% of people? 99% of people don't even purchase a console of any kind. Why would they care? Who do you think games sell to? People with no interest in videogames. It should have been pretty obvious that I was talking about 99% of gamers.
I never said it was, if you read what I wrote you would know that. Things that are not speculation however:
So it was more frontloaded than Gears, big whoop, also hey US =/= the world, in case you forgot. And if you don't believe me about the frontloaded part just compare December 2006 NPD and April 2014. I'd link you vgchartz numbers but I have a feeling that you wouldn't believe them anyway. Also how that Sony comparison is in any way relevant is beyond me, but GoW3 sold 1.1 million in the US its first month. Again instead of laughing look at actual performance data, the majority of the market doesn't give 2 shits about this controversy. Tomb Raider is currently rank #553 on the Amazon.com gaming bestseller list, Fallout 4 on X1, a game coming out the same day, is currently #32. Try and step out of your bubble in which everyone is so weirdly involved in the console war and look at what is actually going on. Look at E3, did anyone at E3 talk about Tomb Raider? No, nobody cared, the game was completely overshadowed.
Titanfall PC is a ghost town, and that games been on sale loads of times. Show me 5 entries in a 5M+ series that sold at least the same on PC as on console in the last decade. The closest you'll find is Minecraft and that had a 3 year headstart. You don't know Titanfall PC numbers, period. They will mainly be digital and the split between them and X1 numbers is certainly not 9 to 1, logic dictates as much. And I don't know why you want me to look for such a game, cause I certainly never said that Titanfall sold as much on PC as it did on X1. But just for the fun of it, do you wanna know about a 5 million+ game that sold more on PC than Xbox? Here, you go it's called Tomb Raider: |
Ryng_Tolu said: Sorry but, how much has sold Tomb Raider? ( for SOLD i say shipped) Was not at 7 million all version PS4+XBO+PS3+360+PC combined? |
Oh, 8.5 million. that's seriusly a lot. For this game i can expect 6-6.5 million all version combined i guess. (probabily less than TB because the XBO exclusive marketing for the holidays is going to decrease the sales... )
DerNebel said: So it was more frontloaded than Gears, big whoop, also hey US =/= the world, in case you forgot. And if you don't believe me about the frontloaded part just compare December 2006 NPD and April 2014. I'd link you vgchartz numbers but I have a feeling that you wouldn't believe them anyway. |
So TF did another 300K in a month where increases are slight and Gears did 800k in a month where hardware sales double? 1.5M vs 1.8m isn't even worth discussing. And no, what value have VGC? it's all made up anyway
DerNebel said: Also how that Sony comparison is in any way relevant is beyond me, but GoW3 sold 1.1 million in the US its first month. |
Hence why it's less than TF 1.2M first month. It's somewhat relevant.
DerNebel said: Try and step out of your bubble in which everyone is so weirdly involved in the console war and look at what is actually going on. Look at E3, did anyone at E3 talk about Tomb Raider? No, nobody cared, the game was completely overshadowed. |
And Rare Replay is #19 next to PS4's COD: BLOPS 3....it's almost like there's no discernable pattern. Yeah, it's pretty obvious FO is going to outsell RotTR, it's no indicator of how RotTR will sell. I'm pretty sure CoD4 and Halo 3 destroyed Assassins Creed in 2007 as well, and that did 7M on 360.
DerNebel said: Try and step out of your bubble in which everyone is so weirdly involved in the console war and look at what is actually going on. Look at E3, did anyone at E3 talk about Tomb Raider? No, nobody cared, the game was completely overshadowed. |
Not for this holiday. It's certainly got greater presence at E3 than the next assassins creed. It's pretty much just Halo, CoD, Fallout and RotTR this year.
sasquatchmontana said: You don't know Titanfall PC numbers, period. They will mainly be digital and the split between them and X1 numbers is certainly not 9 to 1, logic dictates as much. |
Uh, if you're going by Digital as well, Xbox One (if it's at all like WiiU) attributes 20-25% of its sales as digital too, which wasn't tracked at the time.
sasquatchmontana said: And I don't know why you want me to look for such a game, cause I certainly never said that Titanfall sold as much on PC as it did on X1. But just for the fun of it, do you wanna know about a 5 million+ game that sold more on PC than Xbox? Here, you go it's called Tomb Raider: |
I said console, not Xbox. It just happens in this instance, for RotTR, 97% of the console market for that game is Xbox One and 3% 360. The console version of games has been bossing PC versions sales since CoD 2 and Oblivion. Also 2.2M? If the series was at 6M in March 2014, then the PC version either has only sold 200k in a year and a half, or the Console versions were over 2.5M at the time.
You say 6M is outlandish for 12 months, despite the underperforming TR 2013 selling the same without a holiday launch and yet the One has exclusive games (TMCC or Titanfall, there's plenty of examples on 360 too) that have outsold cross platform titles by significant margins.
sasquatchmontana said:
So TF did another 300K in a month where increases are slight and Gears did 800k in a month where hardware sales double? 1.5M vs 1.8m isn't even worth discussing. And no, what value have VGC? it's all made up anyway Ah the convenient "vgchartz numbers are all made up" argument, for when you're trying to make a point by pulling numbers out of your ass but the data of the site completely disproves you. Also the 360 version of Titanfall released in march but hey that suuurely didn't have anything to do with the game even achieving that number...
Hence why it's less than TF 1.2M first month. It's somewhat relevant. It's entirely irrelevant, also I'd sure like to see a source on that 1.2 million number.
And Rare Replay is #19 next to PS4's COD: BLOPS 3....it's almost like there's no discernable pattern. Yeah, it's pretty obvious FO is going to outsell RotTR, it's no indicator of how RotTR will sell. I'm pretty sure CoD4 and Halo 3 destroyed Assassins Creed in 2007 as well, and that did 7M on 360. Jesus Christ...yeah Rare Replay surely isn't that high because it...uhhh..releases in 5 days...no, no there's no connection there at all and there's totally no pattern at all.. Also stop pulling BS numbers out of your ass, where is your source that AC1 did 7 million on 360? And that it was lagging behind in hype behind CoD and Halo the way RoTR is lagging behind the rest currently? Cause I remember AC being a pretty damn huge deal in 2007.
Not for this holiday. It's certainly got greater presence at E3 than the next assassins creed. It's pretty much just Halo, CoD, Fallout and RotTR this year. Lol, wat? Tomb Raider is pretty much at the bottom of the list of relevant games this holiday season, the big 4 this holiday season are Fallout, Battlefront, CoD and Halo all of which are releasing within 3 weeks of Tomb Raider and all of which are doing noticably better than Tomb Raider in capturing peoples interest.
Uh, if you're going by Digital as well, Xbox One (if it's at all like WiiU) attributes 20-25% of its sales as digital too, which wasn't tracked at the time. 20-25%? Well that's cute...not like over 90% of PC sales are digital nowadays...oh wait... they are... http://www.engadget.com/2014/08/24/report-92-percent-of-pc-game-sales-in-2013-were-digital/
I said console, not Xbox. It just happens in this instance, for RotTR, 97% of the console market for that game is Xbox One and 3% 360. The console version of games has been bossing PC versions sales since CoD 2 and Oblivion. Also 2.2M? If the series was at 6M in March 2014, then the PC version either has only sold 200k in a year and a half, or the Console versions were over 2.5M at the time. You say 6M is outlandish for 12 months, despite the underperforming TR 2013 selling the same without a holiday launch and yet the One has exclusive games (TMCC or Titanfall, there's plenty of examples on 360 too) that have outsold cross platform titles by significant margins. Nothing of what you are saying here makes any sense, so sales on both consoles are still higher than on PC, so? This won't be on both consoles, do you think people will jump on the X1 version in droves because they can't wait a year? Lol, I highly doubt it. And what is with that completely senseless math? The Steam version is at over 3.2 million, on the consoles this game sold better on PS and the game sold the worst on Xbox, that's the simple reality. Yeah TR 2013 did it on 5 platforms, of which again the Xbox platforms were the lowest, and after numerous discounts and you expect it to do it essentially on X1 alone, do you not get the insanity in that idea? Did you not realize that nobody, not even Xbox guys have made an even remotely similar prediction here? That really should make you think. There's not a single title that has hit 6 million (or has even gotten close really) on X1 and you suddenly expect Tomb Raider to do it? Did you think this through at all?
|
Well bundles don't count for NPD. I'm going to guess the 750k range without bundles.
"And everyone's Kickstarter has merit." - Malory Archer
Ah the convenient "vgchartz numbers are all made up" argument, for when you're trying to make a point by pulling numbers out of your ass but the data of the site completely disproves you. |
Surely for the website, the fact that they're all fictional and altered at the drop of legit sales data, it's decidely inconvenient.
Also the 360 version of Titanfall released in march but hey that suuurely didn't have anything to do with the game even achieving that number... |
April 8th, actually. So yes, it surely didn't have anything to do with it.
It's entirely irrelevant, also I'd sure like to see a source on that 1.2 million number. |
NPD March 2014. Aren't you a subscriber?
Lol, wat? Tomb Raider is pretty much at the bottom of the list of relevant games this holiday season, the big 4 this holiday season are Fallout, Battlefront, CoD and Halo all of which are releasing within 3 weeks of Tomb Raider and all of which are doing noticably better than Tomb Raider in capturing peoples interest. |
Well bottom would be whatever Assassins Creed is or the innumerate remasters or MGSV. Even so, being the 4th most popular game behind Cod, Halo, FO4 is like saying, "you're not going to sell 10 million before Jan 1st 2016", when between 3-5m would be considered decent enough.
And what is with that completely senseless math? The Steam version is at over 3.2 million, on the consoles this game sold better on PS and the game sold the worst on Xbox, that's the simple reality. |
Uh what? TR2013 was best selling on Xbox 360, DLC and all that. Had something like a 500k lead on launch month. Maybe you're confusing Tomb Raider on PSone?
20-25%? Well that's cute...not like over 90% of PC sales are digital nowadays...oh wait... they are... http://www.engadget.com/2014/08/24/report-92-percent-of-pc-game-sales-in-2013-were-digital/ |
Heh, so 90% of 10% of the overall sales are digital. But 25% of 90% of overall sales are digital on console.
sasquatchmontana said: Yeah TR 2013 did it on 5 platforms, of which again the Xbox platforms were the lowest, and after numerous discounts and you expect it to do it essentially on X1 alone, do you not get the insanity in that idea? |
Historically, Microsoft first party games released in November (discluding console launch) sell 6-8 million. It's just a pattern. I mean Gears of War 2 did more than that and that was had lower sells than Wii Fit, Wii Play, World at War and Mario Kart Wii. Gears 1. Gears 2. Gears 3. Halo 2, Halo 3. Halo 4. Halo Reach and now, Rise of The Tomb Raider. Oh yes.
sasquatchmontana said: Jesus Christ...yeah Rare Replay surely isn't that high because it...uhhh..releases in 5 days...no, no there's no connection there at all and there's totally no pattern at all.. |
Well if you say so, Rare Replay is selling at CoD levels then?
sasquatchmontana said: Also stop pulling BS numbers out of your ass, where is your source that AC1 did 7 million on 360? |
Ubisoft. Their fiscal reports.
sasquatchmontana said: And that it was lagging behind in hype behind CoD and Halo the way RoTR is lagging behind the rest currently? Cause I remember AC being a pretty damn huge deal in 2007. |
Well on HD consoles, it was probably the 4th or 5th biggest release of the holiday.
If you include Wii on that....7th or 8th? Just goes to show, even "8th" place in November, is better then 1st place in March.
DJEVOLVE said: So since a lot of people are claiming doom da doom doom for this game, generally those not playing it until a year later. What do you think Rise Of The Tomb Raider will sell by the end of this year? I'm going to predict it will hit 1 million copies by the end of the year. Now this is a bold statement as it's predecessor only sold 1.86 million unite's world wide one xbox 360 according to VGC. However we may have to wait on VGC numbers, depending if this site goes back to normal or just stays on buffer mode.
Also what would be considered a hit in sales and what would be considered a bust in your opinion? |
I'd say 750k by the end of the year, which isn't bad but the bigger titles (Halo, CoD and Fallout) will derail people from getting RotT, even if the first two come out a bit before it.
500,000 at launch and finish up with 700,000 by year's end.
sasquatchmontana said:
Surely for the website, the fact that they're all fictional and altered at the drop of legit sales data, it's decidely inconvenient. Adjusting to more accurate data when it becomes available does not mean the data is made up, but it sure works out to say that for you who is actually the one just lying and making up numbers here.
April 8th, actually. So yes, it surely didn't have anything to do with it. Since the second month (which we were talking about) was April it had a ton to do with it
NPD March 2014. Aren't you a subscriber? Nope and neither are you, so I'm assuming you can't give me a source.
Well bottom would be whatever Assassins Creed is or the innumerate remasters or MGSV. Even so, being the 4th most popular game behind Cod, Halo, FO4 is like saying, "you're not going to sell 10 million before Jan 1st 2016", when between 3-5m would be considered decent enough. Lol MGS V at the bottom? Bwahaha, MGS V will easily outsell Tomb Raider, as will the next AC. Tomb Raider is not the 4th most popular game (btw. can you read and count?), again the 4 most popular games this holiday will be Cod, Battlefront, Fallout and Halo then you have games like AC, Fifa and MGS V and then we might be getting to Tomb Raider and in no way is that game selling close to 3 million units this year unless it's extensively force bundled.
Uh what? TR2013 was best selling on Xbox 360, DLC and all that. Had something like a 500k lead on launch month. Maybe you're confusing Tomb Raider on PSone? Uh what? That's a complete lie, stop fucking lying. At no point did Tomb Raider (2013) sell better on 360 than on PS3.
Heh, so 90% of 10% of the overall sales are digital. But 25% of 90% of overall sales are digital on console. What kind of bullshit is this? No game nowadays only does 10% of its sales on PC unless it releases significantly later on it and Titanfall did not release late on PC.
Historically, Microsoft first party games released in November (discluding console launch) sell 6-8 million. It's just a pattern. I mean Gears of War 2 did more than that and that was had lower sells than Wii Fit, Wii Play, World at War and Mario Kart Wii. Gears 1. Gears 2. Gears 3. Halo 2, Halo 3. Halo 4. Halo Reach and now, Rise of The Tomb Raider. Oh yes. Again that's a lie (I'm noticing a pattern from you here). Gears 2 sold over 8 million? Who do you think is going to believe this BS? No Fable game sold 6-8 million units, no Forza game did it, no Left 4 Dead game did it, no Dance Central did it, Viva Pinata didn't do it, Sunset Overdrive didn't do it, Banjo Kazooie Nuts & Bolts didn't do it and as anybody here can tell you Tomb Raider won't do it.
Well if you say so, Rare Replay is selling at CoD levels then? Yup that's what I'm saying, not that games that are closer to launch are bought more than games that are farther away from launch... and before you jump on this: I am being sarcastic and am saying that of course games closer to launch sell more than games farther away from launch. I thought that logic could be expected here but I guess not in this case.
Ubisoft. Their fiscal reports. Post them.
Well on HD consoles, it was probably the 4th or 5th biggest release of the holiday. If you include Wii on that....7th or 8th? Just goes to show, even "8th" place in November, is better then 1st place in March. |
Oh and this is going to be the end of this "discussion" on my part, I don't have any interest in continuing to talk with an obvious liar that makes up numbers and stats to support his argument.