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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Dragon Quest 11 to be announced on july 28?

Hynad said:
Teeqoz said:


Hynad, the ratio between 80% of 60 and 80% of 40 is exactly the same as the ratio between 60 and 40. 3 to 2. lol.

 

There is a huge difference between the development costs of say, FF XV, and that of DQ XI. The increase in development costs doesn't inherently come from developping on a home console, but frol better graphics, which you'd expect on a home console. Now, I doubt DQ XI is gonna be a graphical beast, but it'll have rather good production values. However, it'll probably not surpass 50 million (and that's highballing it, GTA V cost 110 million, and that was decelopped for PS3, 360, PS4, XBO, and PC, and has a massive open world.), versus a low 15 million on the 3DS (low estimate). the difference between the lowest for 3DS and the highest for PS4 is still "only" 35 million, and more realisticly, the difference is 15 million. Which isn't that much. So if we say DQ XI PS4 cost 35 million to make, and the publisher gets an 80% cut of the 60$, so 48$ per copy, they'd have to sell 730k copies to breakeven, While for the handheld, with 15 million, and 80% of 40, 32$, they'd have to sell 460k copies to break even. But for each copy sold after the breakeven point, they'll make more money on one PS4 copy sold than one 3DS copy sold.

 

If we say the 3DS one would've sold 4.5 million (the DS DQ sold 5.7 million), that would be 4.1 million copies sold after our hypothetical breakeven point, so 4.1 mill x 32$= 131 million profit. 

If the PS4 game sold 3 mill (I think that's rather conservative actually) that would be 2.3 million sold after the hypethetical breakeven point, so 2.3 mill x 48$= 110 million profit. Now sure, they're sacrificing 20 million shirt term, but add to that the other things I said (They wanna increase PS4 jap userbase, they want to make a home console game, they want DQ to grow in the west) then it's obvious it isn't just because of bias.


Your first sentence was out of place. I didn't put this into question. So I will question what your problem is.

As for the rest, you basically illustrated what I meant. They will break even faster with handheld games because they cost much less to produce. At 15 million for a 3DS game, you're inflating what it costs to produce most of them by quite a big margin. If a game like Witcher 2 (two) cost 12.5M to develop and was cutting edge on PC when it came out, surely you don't believe a 3DS game will cost nearly as much today. DS games would typically cost between 500K and 2M to produce (look it up) . It is very doubtful 3DS games would now cost around 15M to make... After all, back then, they usually needed to sell only 100k copies to break even. 

Simply put, developers don't get a 80% cut. During the 7th gen, for example, they'd typically get around 15$ per unit sold.

As for the rest that you typed, games on console go down in price quite fast, meaning the cut to the devs don't go higher as time goes by, but lower.


You said "That's not quite how it works, developers get a % cut" and I just said that that is quite irrelevant because the ratio remains the same. I gotta ask why you even brought it up when you know that the ratio remains the exact same.

I did look up development costs for the DS, apparently the "maximum" was 500k. But guess what, according to the same source, the "maximum" for a PS3 game was also 3 million USD.... So I think it's safe to assume that is for smaller titles, not gigantic AAAs like Dragon Quest. But sure, if we say the budget for a DQ 3DS would be 5 million USD, you just need to add 10 million to the 131 million we had, so 141 million vs the 110 million I estimated for the PS4 game. Also, you are indeed correct, the developers don't get close to 80% of the MSRP.

Yes, the 80% was just a figure I chose, but the retailer cut is 25%, the rest goes to the publisher, which the pub in turn needs to divide, some of those 75% goes to the platform holder, some goes to the developer, some of it goes to cover shipping and packing, some of it covers the cost of unsold units, etc. But I think we can agree all those % stay roughly the same regardless if it releases on the PS4 or the 3DS. I'll do the math with a 50% share for the publisher (after costs are covered, aka platform royalty, shipping etc.)

 

40$x0.5x4.5mill=90, minus 5 million budget, 85 million $.

60$x0.5x3mill=90, minus 35 million budget (which is insane if we assume the 3DS version has a budget of 5 million), 55 million $. 30 million difference. Add in some cash from Sony, SE wants to increase PS4 userbase, they want to make a home console game and all the other reasons I mentioned, and once again, it obviously isn't just because japanese 3rd parties are biased against Nintendo.

 

And may I remind you, this is severely overestimating budget of the PS4 version, and underestimating sales from PS4 version (the last one is debatable though, but I think so at least.)

 



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Samus Aran said:
Hynad said:

Ok. Since you have no idea, here goes the list of games Square-Enix either developed or published for the 3DS:

Bust-a-Move Universe
Slime MoriMori Dragon Quest 3: Daikaizoku to Shippodan
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance
Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D
Heroes of Ruin
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
Dragon Quest VII
Gyrozetter: Wings of the Albatross
Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure
Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru and Luca's Marvelous Mysterious Key
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call
Final Fantasy Explorers
Theatrhythm Dragon Quest
Bravely Second: End Layer
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King


Pretty poor list. Ports, remakes, spin-offs.

Where are the mainline FF, DQ and KH games? We're talking about an 18 million unit userbase here in Japan.

Handhelds don't get main entries in those series (with DQ9 as the only exception). That complaint has zero merit.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
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Yay! Hopefully it's multiplatform and release in the west, eh?



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

outlawauron said:
Samus Aran said:
Hynad said:

Ok. Since you have no idea, here goes the list of games Square-Enix either developed or published for the 3DS:

Bust-a-Move Universe
Slime MoriMori Dragon Quest 3: Daikaizoku to Shippodan
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance
Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D
Heroes of Ruin
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy
Dragon Quest VII
Gyrozetter: Wings of the Albatross
Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure
Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru and Luca's Marvelous Mysterious Key
Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call
Final Fantasy Explorers
Theatrhythm Dragon Quest
Bravely Second: End Layer
Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King


Pretty poor list. Ports, remakes, spin-offs.

Where are the mainline FF, DQ and KH games? We're talking about an 18 million unit userbase here in Japan.

Handhelds don't get main entries in those series (with DQ9 as the only exception). That complaint has zero merit.

What is the best selling DQ game?

Thought so.



Roronaa_chan said:
Why do people keep forgetting TWEWY exists


TWEWY is a DS game. Not 3DS.



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Teeqoz said:

-snip-

I said they get a %, because that's what you brought up, but I then added the important part which is that the game cost is a huge factor to take into consideration when you want to know how many units they need to sell to break even. Big games on consoles cost more than ever to produce. But they don't sell for more than they did during prior gens. So they need to sell a lot more to break even. 3DS games cost barely more than they did on the DS. They don't need to sell as many copies as their console counterpart to break even. 

That's just basic. You said "a home console game doesn't have to do as much in raw numbers to make as much money".

But that simply isn't true because of the increased cost to actually make such games. That's unless you mean indie games, then I'd agree. I think you're confused between games "moving money" and "devs making money". A console game will move a lot of money. But it also has to move quite a bit more money than 3DS games to start making profit. A big game right now costs on average between 20M and 50M to make. And quite a few games go even higher than that. They will need to "do much more in raw numbers" to start making money compared to handheld games, which I'll reiterate ony need to sell around 100k-200k units to break even and start profitting. The fact that the cut they get for a console games is barely different than for a handheld game should give you a better idea of the big picture.

With what I provided, let me give you an example:

- 3DS game development cost = 2M
- PS4 game development cost = 25M

Now, let's use the industry average of profit per unit sold, which is around 15$ and 10$ (25% of 60$ and 40$ respectively).
The 3DS game has to sell 133k units to cover its costs and start turning a profit, while the PS4 game has to sell roughly 1.7M

Now let's say both are good sellers and both sell the same amount of units. Let's say 3M. Let's see how much profit each of them will turn:

For the 3DS game: 3M x 10 - 2M = 28M 
For the PS4 game: 3M x 15 - 25M = 20M

So do you now understand the issue I had with what you said ("a home console game doesn't have to do as much in raw numbers to make as much money")... ? To start profiting more than a 3DS game, the PS4 game has to sell A LOT. 3M is the average for big seller exclusives, which Dragon Quest XI is most likely going to be.


And as for your source, I suggest you try looking into more sources to get a proper idea of what it costs and how much developers profit from sales...



As for the bias part, I've never agreed to that point.



johnsobas said:
darkknightkryta said:

It sold over a million on a dead console in Japan...  Plus I'm sure the fanbase was expecting at least a PSP version.  If Square (Or Capcom) were to say "PS4 only" it will sell 3 million on PS4 because there's no other option for the title.  They can't expect a 3DS/Vita title.  Same with Monster Hunter, if Capcom were to say Monster Hunter 5 for PS4 only (Which is looking likely) it will sell 3 million on PS4.

stop trolling.  How in the hell is the wii a dead console in Japan in 2009?  Bottom line about monster hunter is it will only sell 3 million on a portable console.  There is no evidence that a home console version will sell anywhere close to that.  It is popular because it is played with friends on wi-fi.  The portable version will sell more even if it comes out afterwards as a port.

Selling slightly above the PS3 isn't dead?  Or was the PS3 selling gangbusters in Japan in 2009?  Monster Hunter will sell 3 million on whatever platform it lands on if that's the only platform it will have.  Same with Dragon Quest.  You're also assuming there will be a portable port for either franchises from now on.



Hynad said:
Teeqoz said:

-snip-

I said they get a %, because that's what you brought up, but I then added the important part which is that the game cost is a huge factor to take into consideration when you want to know how many units they need to sell to break even. Big games on consoles cost more than ever to produce. But they don't sell for more than they did during prior gens. So they need to sell a lot more to break even. 3DS games cost barely more than they did on the DS. They don't need to sell as many copies as their console counterpart to break even. 

That's just basic. You said "a home console game doesn't have to do as much in raw numbers to make as much money".

But that simply isn't true because of the increased cost to actually make such games. That's unless you mean indie games, then I'd agree. I think you're confused between games "moving money" and "devs making money". A console game will move a lot of money. But it also has to move quite a bit more money than 3DS games to start making profit. A big game right now costs on average between 20M and 50M to make. And quite a few games go even higher than that. They will need to "do much more in raw numbers" to start making money compared to handheld games, which I'll reiterate ony need to sell around 100k-200k units to break even and start profitting. The fact that the cut they get for a console games is barely different than for a handheld game should give you a better idea of the big picture.

With what I provided, let me give you an example:

- 3DS game development cost = 2M
- PS4 game development cost = 25M

Now, let's use the industry average of profit per unit sold, which is around 15$.
The 3DS game has to sell 133k units to cover its costs and start turning a profit, while the PS4 game has to sell roughly 1.7M

Now let's say both are good sellers and both sell the same amount of units. Let's say 3M. Let's see how much profit each of them will turn:

For the 3DS game: 3M x 15 - 2M = 43M 
For the PS4 game: 3M x 15 - 25M = 20M

So do you now understand the issue I had with what you said ("a home console game doesn't have to do as much in raw numbers to make as much money")... ?


And as for your source, I suggest you try looking into more sources to get a proper idea of what it costs and how much developers profit from sales...



As for the bias part, I've never agreed to that point.


Okay Hynad, first of all, how in the world can you assume that each unit sold makes the publisher 15 $ from both handheld and home console games? That's just silly. Each copy of a 40$ handheld game wouldn't net the publisher the exact same amount as a 60$ home console game. You're even contradicting your own statement of "publishers gets a certain % of the cut for each unit" because 15$ is 25% of 60$, but 37.5% of 40$. Why would the % cut be so much higher (50% higher in fact) for handheld games?

Second of all, source for your "15$ industry average"?

http://kotaku.com/5479698/what-your-60-really-buys

According to this, a publisher gets 27$ from a 60$ video game. And that is after platform royalties, shipping costs, etc. are paid, all of which would be present for a handheld game.

So that's about a 50% margin. Let's just assume that the margin is the same for handheld 40$ games (instead of your 15$ industry average, because that averages out handhelds and homeconsoles, which it shouldn't in this discussion.)

 

PS4: 3 M x 50% x 60$ - 25M= 65M profit

3DS: 3 M x 50% x 40$ - 2M = 58M profit

 

Obviously, the disrepancy increases the higher the amount of copies sold is.

PS4: 4 M x 50% x 60$ - 25M= 105M profit

3DS: 4 M x 50% x 40$ - 2M= 78M profit

 

But I should have noted that I was talking about big titles that are guaranteed to sell plenty of copies past the breakeven point. Obviously if a game only sells 100k, the 3DS will end up ahead.



Teeqoz said:

-snip-


I edited my comment prior to your reply. 



I would love to see a Wii U/PS4 release, just make everyone happy