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Forums - Sales Discussion - Halo 5 Sales Predictions.

 

Halo 5 sales predictions

Under 6 million 111 26.24%
 
6-8 million 142 33.57%
 
9-10 million 96 22.70%
 
11-12 million 35 8.27%
 
13-14 million 3 0.71%
 
15 million+ 36 8.51%
 
Total:423
Welfare on 04 July 2015

3.1 million FW

9 million LTD

Outsell Uncharted.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

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pitzy272 on 04 July 2015
bouzane said:
pitzy272 said:


Haha easy there guy. Read into my message a little. My point is the lowish sales of the XBO. I'm fully aware of how sales work, but ppl are predicting sales close to Halo 3 levels. Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world (also, as an aside, Halo 3 released when halo was at it's peak. It is no longer peaking). Peoples predictions involve an expectation for, in my opinion, an unreasonable attach ratio. XBO, following it's current sales rate, will likely be at around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. After this period of time, u would expect halo to be at least approaching it's LT sales number. So 10mill would mean a 30% attach ratio. Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio? If so, I will stand, corrected. 

Also, your GT3 comparison is flawed, again due to the popularity issue. Sure, it's possible for some games to sell more than their predecessors despite a smaller user base, but it has to involve an attach ratio within reason.

For the record, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but responding so arrogantly tends to make ppl look bad especially when it turns out they misunderstood the other poster's message. 


"Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world"

Halo 3 released on a console that had sold less than 12 million units.

"Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio?"

Halo 3 achieved a 32% attach ratio in its first week on the market and 43% by New Year's.

Edit:

By the end of 2009 (the equivalent of 2017 for the ONE) Halo 3 was at 10.5 million and the 360 was at 37.4 million which is 28%.

If the ONE stands at 32 million by the end of 2017 (conservative estimate) a 28% attach ratio would result in 9 million sales for Halo 5.

I responded arrogantly because I used the data available on this site coupled with a bit of historical precedent to make an informed estimate and I scoff at anybody who disagrees. That's right, I scoff at these ridiculous 6-8 million predictions :P

Well to be fair, I think it'll end up closer to 7-8 (probably closer to 8) ;)

And okay, so a 28% AR would put it at 9mill, but we can't expect halo 5 to achieve the same AR as halo 3. Halo 3 released when Halo was like the #1 (or at least close to) game franchise in the world (besides nintendo stuff). It was the only place you could play that type of multiplayer. Now, Halo is moreso one among many. And the hype for it--while still huge--isn't near what it used to be. 

Also, I know Halo 3 released on a small userbase. And XBO is still tracking ahead of 360 I believe. But the difference is that the 360 was on fire. It had a lot of hype being the #1 console (and bc it did so many things right) and continued to sell really well for many years. Not that XBO won't continue to sell; it's just that xbox also isnt what it once was. So I think most people would expect 360s sales to eventually overtake those of the XBO. 

Either way, nothing I ever say will I preach as fact. You could end up being right, and I would gladly bow to your wisdom and foresight :)



bouzane on 05 July 2015
super6646 said:
bouzane said:


My Gran Turismo example wasn't meant to be a perfect comparison. I was mearly pointing out the fact that the ONE's current userbase isn't going to be a hard limit for Halo 5's lifetime sales just as the 360 didn't limit Halo 3. That being said, considering Halo's front loaded nature I should have focused on another point.

When Halo 3 launched the 360 had only sold 12 million units whereas the ONE has already surpassed that total. After three months on the market Halo 3 was owned by 43% of 360 users and if Halo 5 accomplishes similar numbers it will easily beat a lot of the predictions in this thread. I'm not denying that the ONE is going to be significantly less popular than the 360 in the end and I'm certainly not saying that Halo 5 is going to be as successful as 3 (or reach a 43% attach ratio for that matter). It's just that the ONE will in no way hinder Halo 5's sales and only critical reception and potential franchise fatigue will influence the outcome.


I agree with almost everything, expect your sales numbers for the XB1. I could see it much higher, and I know that sounds unlikely, but so was the XB1 winning the April NPD.


I'm sorry but the ONE selling more than 85 million units is far, far less likely than it "winning" the occasional NPD. The 360 was on the market for eight years before the ONE released, was buoyed by the Kinect and went up against the worst Playstation console ever. None of these things are going to apply to the ONE and it will not come anywhere near the 360 in lifetime sales.



IAmCrimsonLegion on 05 July 2015

3 million FW.

8.5 million LT.



bouzane on 05 July 2015
pitzy272 said:
bouzane said:


"Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world"

Halo 3 released on a console that had sold less than 12 million units.

"Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio?"

Halo 3 achieved a 32% attach ratio in its first week on the market and 43% by New Year's.

Edit:

By the end of 2009 (the equivalent of 2017 for the ONE) Halo 3 was at 10.5 million and the 360 was at 37.4 million which is 28%.

If the ONE stands at 32 million by the end of 2017 (conservative estimate) a 28% attach ratio would result in 9 million sales for Halo 5.

I responded arrogantly because I used the data available on this site coupled with a bit of historical precedent to make an informed estimate and I scoff at anybody who disagrees. That's right, I scoff at these ridiculous 6-8 million predictions :P

Well to be fair, I think it'll end up closer to 7-8 (probably closer to 8) ;)

And okay, so a 28% AR would put it at 9mill, but we can't expect halo 5 to achieve the same AR as halo 3. Halo 3 released when Halo was like the #1 (or at least close to) game franchise in the world (besides nintendo stuff). It was the only place you could play that type of multiplayer. Now, Halo is moreso one among many. And the hype for it--while still huge--isn't near what it used to be. 

Also, I know Halo 3 released on a small userbase. And XBO is still tracking ahead of 360 I believe. But the difference is that the 360 was on fire. It had a lot of hype being the #1 console (and bc it did so many things right) and continued to sell really well for many years. Not that XBO won't continue to sell; it's just that xbox also isnt what it once was. So I think most people would expect 360s sales to eventually overtake those of the XBO. 

Either way, nothing I ever say will I preach as fact. You could end up being right, and I would gladly bow to your wisdom and foresight :)


In 2008 the 360 edged out the PS3 to become the fourth best selling piece of hardware and in 2009 it edged out the PSP for another fourth place finish. How does that qualify as on fire? The 360 didn't really take off until the Kinect launched three years after Halo 3. Again, the ONE won't hinder Halo 5's launch and it's sales in two to three years are largely irrelevant to it's success. I will concede that the Halo franchise has far more competition now-a-days, that's something needs to be taken into consideration.



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the_real_dsister44 on 05 July 2015
super6646 said:
the_real_dsister44 said:
I'm thinking around 750K. the hype has died down quite a bit since the last version


750k sales? Wow, that's a steep decline.


yeah, it is a shame. Only I saw it coming.



super6646 on 06 July 2015
the_real_dsister44 said:
super6646 said:


750k sales? Wow, that's a steep decline.


yeah, it is a shame. Only I saw it coming.


I don't know if you're trolling me, or you're serious...



super6646 on 06 July 2015
bouzane said:
super6646 said:


I agree with almost everything, expect your sales numbers for the XB1. I could see it much higher, and I know that sounds unlikely, but so was the XB1 winning the April NPD.


I'm sorry but the ONE selling more than 85 million units is far, far less likely than it "winning" the occasional NPD. The 360 was on the market for eight years before the ONE released, was buoyed by the Kinect and went up against the worst Playstation console ever. None of these things are going to apply to the ONE and it will not come anywhere near the 360 in lifetime sales.


You stealth edited behind my back. Nice try there ;). Of course the XB1 won't surpass the 360.



pitzy272 on 06 July 2015
bouzane said:
pitzy272 said:

Well to be fair, I think it'll end up closer to 7-8 (probably closer to 8) ;)

And okay, so a 28% AR would put it at 9mill, but we can't expect halo 5 to achieve the same AR as halo 3. Halo 3 released when Halo was like the #1 (or at least close to) game franchise in the world (besides nintendo stuff). It was the only place you could play that type of multiplayer. Now, Halo is moreso one among many. And the hype for it--while still huge--isn't near what it used to be. 

Also, I know Halo 3 released on a small userbase. And XBO is still tracking ahead of 360 I believe. But the difference is that the 360 was on fire. It had a lot of hype being the #1 console (and bc it did so many things right) and continued to sell really well for many years. Not that XBO won't continue to sell; it's just that xbox also isnt what it once was. So I think most people would expect 360s sales to eventually overtake those of the XBO. 

Either way, nothing I ever say will I preach as fact. You could end up being right, and I would gladly bow to your wisdom and foresight :)


In 2008 the 360 edged out the PS3 to become the fourth best selling piece of hardware and in 2009 it edged out the PSP for another fourth place finish. How does that qualify as on fire? The 360 didn't really take off until the Kinect launched three years after Halo 3. Again, the ONE won't hinder Halo 5's launch and it's sales in two to three years are largely irrelevant to it's success. I will concede that the Halo franchise has far more competition now-a-days, that's something needs to be taken into consideration.


Maybe on fire is a bit of an exaggeration...but why are u putting home consoles in the same category as handhelds? Not really a relevant comparison. 360 would've been the 2nd best selling home console behind the Wii, but Wii and 360/ps3 weren't even in the exact same category bc Wii was comprised of such a large portion of casuals. Also... even when ps3 was outselling 360, 360 still destroyed ps3 in the US (by far halos #1 territory). 



KdxlavkdX on 06 July 2015

7-8 million.