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Forums - Politics Discussion - Greece Defaults. What now?

generic-user-1 said:

90% of the population are in debt to  the other 10%.   

and there will be no peak oil, the oil industrie is fine with 100$/b and the world is able to pay that price.

and the consumtion could decline in the next 20 years. europe is slowly starting to use power-to-gas, and china will follow soon. green energies need storage, and H² or other gas fits that needs well.

- Social topic "rich vs poor" doesn't accurately depict the position we're currently in. It's much, much bigger imo.

- We're either on or behind peak oil. To be more precise, peak of cheap oil, which is really equivalent of all oil, resources, prosperity and god knows what else. This economy wasn't designed for smth else, but cheap oil.

- Nor greenies, nor p2g, nor methanhydrates, nor other half-arsed options that are merely few last breaths of dying oil-based global economy won't compensate for traditional hydrocarbonates decline. If I'm not mistaken I did a few posts about this somewhere here, so won't repeat myself. Long story short a lot of wishful thinking if not direct sabotage is going on in this field. The only thing that could really make your, mine or that guy over there (who's the lucky one, take your pick) prospects look better, if more and more big consumers are cut off from the resources supply lines, in other words wars, chaos, other forms of drastic consumption decline etc. for the purrpose of redistribution of limited resoruces in your favour. Europe is energy-deficit, it WILL decline and it's going to be very steep imo.



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mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

90% of the population are in debt to  the other 10%.   

and there will be no peak oil, the oil industrie is fine with 100$/b and the world is able to pay that price.

and the consumtion could decline in the next 20 years. europe is slowly starting to use power-to-gas, and china will follow soon. green energies need storage, and H² or other gas fits that needs well.

- Social topic "rich vs poor" doesn't accurately depict the position we're currently in. It's much, much bigger imo.

- We're either on or behind peak oil. To be more precise, peak of cheap oil, which is really equivalent of all oil, resources, prosperity and god knows what else. This economy wasn't designed for smth else, but cheap oil.

- Nor greenies, nor p2g, nor methanhydrates, nor other half-arsed options that are merely few last breaths of dying oil-based global economy won't compensate for traditional hydrocarbonates decline. If I'm not mistaken I did a few posts about this somewhere here, so won't repeat myself. Long story short a lot of wishful thinking if not direct sabotage is going on in this field. The only thing that could really make your, mine or that guy over there (who's the lucky one, take your pick) prospects look better, if more and more big consumers are cut off from the resources supply lines, in other words wars, chaos, other forms of drastic consumption decline etc. for the purrpose of redistribution of limited resoruces in your favour. Europe is energy-deficit, it WILL decline and it's going to be very steep imo.

there is enough oil at 100$/b, and thats a price the world can life with.  and there will be no decline in hydrocarbonates, there are plenty enough for a long time, its just gets uglyer to produce.

 

and europe has an energie deficit because we dont wanna dig holes everywhere, there is enough coal and unconventional oil but thats not cheap. the deficite will decline alot in the next years, europe goes green and the consumption isnt growing. 

and its not a defite like the one the us or turkey has, europe doesnt need to loan money outside to buy oil.



countries debts are overrated in my opinion because unlike individuals no one can really force a country to pay them back. I mean what do you want to do? Invade them? And even if a county does default, basic needs towards the people will always be provided no matter how much debt they have.



generic-user-1 said:

there is enough oil at 100$/b, and thats a price the world can life with.  and there will be no decline in hydrocarbonates, there are plenty enough for a long time, its just gets uglyer to produce.

 

and europe has an energie deficit because we dont wanna dig holes everywhere, there is enough coal and unconventional oil but thats not cheap. the deficite will decline alot in the next years, europe goes green and the consumption isnt growing. 

and its not a defite like the one the us or turkey has, europe doesnt need to loan money outside to buy oil.

I like your optimism :D But, first of all, at this point in time oil doesn't cost that much, current price single-handedly killed a bunch of pricey oils production and future plans, including shale (I'm not even checking it anymore, it was smth around 60% dive in rig count since the peak?), and even if the price goes to stratosphere tomorrow it won't change a lot, because... you see, the further we go into the crisis the lower solvent demands is, I'm putting the stress at "solvent", because strategically "the club of debtors" is not a solvent buyer. As I've said it earlier printing press is not covering the debt hole anymore, they simply do NOT earn enough to pay the bills, including energy. Actually one way to explaing current crisis is to describe it as a crisis of demand, because that's what the essence of the current situation is -- monetary stimuli for ever-growing demand don't work anymore.

At some point your oil supplier will just ask you to pay with smth else but cut paper especially if oil prices will be up and down all the time, and this is where the problem begins. For exporting nations this means collapsing demand for their product, which they either compensate by redistribution of the exporting routes to those who could pay, or cutting exports trying to raise domestic needs, that leaves even less free energy offered for export to the global market. Both options are most likely won't cover for the decline though. Just look at modern-day Ukraine as the closest approximation of the nearest future and live example how country couldn't pay its bills, nor does population or enterprises as prices for electricity they previously took for granted are sky-rocketing for them (and that's with 40 bucks Gasprom discount included! Naftogaz is paying less than 250 bucks right now afair).

EU is energy deficit because it's quite simply energy deficit, there's no free will in the process, or someone wanting or not wanting smth :D If energy was readily available, EU wouldn't be energy deficit.



0815user said:
countries debts are overrated in my opinion because unlike individuals no one can really force a country to pay them back. I mean what do you want to do? Invade them? And even if a county does default, basic needs towards the people will always be provided no matter how much debt they have.

Tomorrow will be better than today, electricty comes from a wall socket, gas from a gas station, wi-fi is a gift of gods. Amen, brother! :D



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No wins.
Greece is choosing to be a 3rd world country. In democracy, the voting people always get what they deserve :(.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

Dignity wins this time. Let's hope that the anti-austerity movement will grow after this. Go, greeks!



mai said:
generic-user-1 said:

there is enough oil at 100$/b, and thats a price the world can life with.  and there will be no decline in hydrocarbonates, there are plenty enough for a long time, its just gets uglyer to produce.

 

and europe has an energie deficit because we dont wanna dig holes everywhere, there is enough coal and unconventional oil but thats not cheap. the deficite will decline alot in the next years, europe goes green and the consumption isnt growing. 

and its not a defite like the one the us or turkey has, europe doesnt need to loan money outside to buy oil.

I like your optimism :D But, first of all, at this point in time oil doesn't cost that much, current price single-handedly killed a bunch of pricey oils production and future plans, including shale (I'm not even checking it anymore, it was smth around 60% dive in rig count since the peak?), and even if the price goes to stratosphere tomorrow it won't change a lot, because... you see, the further we go into the crisis the lower solvent demands is, I'm putting the stress at "solvent", because strategically "the club of debtors" is not a solvent buyer. As I've said it earlier printing press is not covering the debt hole anymore, they simply do NOT earn enough to pay the bills, including energy. Actually one way to explaing current crisis is to describe it as a crisis of demand, because that's what the essence of the current situation is -- monetary stimuli for ever-growing demand don't work anymore.

At some point your oil supplier will just ask you to pay with smth else but cut paper especially if oil prices will be up and down all the time, and this is where the problem begins. For exporting nations this means collapsing demand for their product, which they either compensate by redistribution of the exporting routes to those who could pay, or cutting exports trying to raise domestic needs, that leaves even less free energy offered for export to the global market. Both options are most likely won't cover for the decline though. Just look at modern-day Ukraine as the closest approximation of the nearest future and live example how country couldn't pay its bills, nor does population or enterprises as prices for electricity they previously took for granted are sky-rocketing for them (and that's with 40 bucks Gasprom discount included! Naftogaz is paying less than 250 bucks right now afair).

EU is energy deficit because it's quite simply energy deficit, there's no free will in the process, or someone wanting or not wanting smth :D If energy was readily available, EU wouldn't be energy deficit.

the euro area has not trade deficit overall, so there will be enough of hard money to buy oil.(the EU overall doesnt look that good because of the lazy brits, but there is no trade deficite atm for the EU)

and yes we choosed to be energie deficit, we dont like holes and burning water.   europe isnt out of coal its just not needed to destroy our natur when others are willing to destroy theirs for cheap.



Due to it's specific challenges I think that Greece is very hard to rescue with austerity (imo it does work well for several other countries), so I welcome this vote as it will facilitate their return to an independent monetary policy with their own currency.



We made it!!!! "No" Won. After all that disgusting propaganda by the media, the people choose what they believed to be the best choice.