I believe Nintendo fans underestimate just how hard it is going to be for Nintendo to pull off a successful launch if they do indeed launch NX within the next two years.
Practically everything will be against them, lets run through a few scenarios.
NX launches at a $300 price point and around-about xbox/ps4 specs.
- Third partys avoid due to small install base compared to the 30+m ps4 and 17+m xbox one
- Initial batch of games followed by yet another slow period because their development teams need time to adjust to the new hardward performance bracket
- No real reason to buy over a XBO/PS4 unless all you are interested in is Nintendo-specific games, the audience for which is clearly not as big as its competitiors.
NX launches at a $150 price point and the same as or slightly better specs as the WiiU
- WiiU owners feel cheated, why buy a new console if the game could easilly run on the wiiu?
- Third parties have even less of a reason to support it
- Combination of upsetting current WiiU owners and releasing mid-generation result in extremely slow userbase growth
NX ends up being an android tablet/device
- Android tablet/phone users have ability to snag pirated/cracked APK's with ease, piracy from day 1.
- Adding in hardware security layer defeats the point of going android, since standard android devices would not run the games, low software sales.
- Split the already split Nintendo userbase a second time over, reducing its size even further
NX ends up being a combination of WiiU and 3DS
- Nobody really cares, since they have a wiiu / 3ds already
- Sales suffer because the console isnt essential for NX games, older hardware can run them... or
- Piss off community by using the same hardware but now allow WiiU to boot NX games
However you look at it, far short of a near perfect launch with a near perfect batch of launch titles and enough titles releasing through the first two years to maintain interest, it's highly unlikely that their next console will succeed if launched prior to 2017.
As for how we will transition from WiiU to NX, I see Nintendo fans lapping up news on the NX and I can't help but feel it's because they themselves have already written off the WiiU, so it should be no surprise to anyone that Nintendo intend to do the same.
