Op

Well, all we do in this. thread is guesswork since no one knows the exact numbers besides MS. My numbers, however, would fit very well with VGC and a reasonable drop-off for 360 YOY. So what are your objections?

Your methodology. 

Using VGC as a base is wrong as VGC make up their numbers, then guessing 360 shipments without explaining why is also a bit iffy. 

Based on the deep analysis I've done I can say with some confidence that the Xbox One sell in will have been somewhere between 11.9m and 12.6m at the end of 2014. That fits with your number however the methodology I've used looks at all known variables in order to create this highly accurate number. Unfortunately we can't pinpoint an exact sell in number, nor can we pinpoint an exact sell through number. The full methodology I used is on gaf in one of my old posts. It's a long read. 

But we don't talk about shipment, we talk about SALES.

As i say, is very likely that XB1 is at 12,000,000 shipped by end of 2014, the problem is: is at 11,000,000 SOLD TO CONSUMER?????

Imo, is more reasonable 10.5 million or even 10.2 million...

But what exactly are you basing that on 

I already say why in the OP... any way:

Usually XB1 sales in the US are 60% of total WW market... just for example: 3,000,000 sold by end of 2013 (3.9m ship) and 1,817,000 in the US...

Now, if the XB1 market is still 60% in the US, that's mean XB1 is at 10.3m WW, considering is at 6,189,000 in the US... 

IMPORTANT MENTION:

1- By September 2014 XB1 is coming in some new market... thats probabily decrease the ratio US-WW...

2- By November 2014, in the US the XB1 price is drop 400$ to 350$, and that's US only... in the other countries, the XB1 price was still the same, so, with this pricedrop in the US (for not talk about the blackfriday deals exclusives for the US like AC bundle at 320$ or even other) seem probabily that the ratio IS-WW is increase...

That's one of the most important thing. As i say, i think XB1 is at 10.5m WW, so, under 59% sales in the US for be correct...

But there are even more reason.

Any way, what do you think XB1 sold by end of 2014? Of course, nobody can say for sure withouth Microsoft what XB1 sold, but we can estimate some numbers, and i think that the 11m that ioi estimate, is too much imo.

But VGC is what we have to go by, so why not use that? And they make calculated approximations, just like NPD, MCV and the likes. The bigger firms are more than likely more accurate, which is why VGC constantly make adjustments based on announcments. We also know the ratio between 360 and X1 based on the first two shipments, and the drop-off in 360 sales leading up to the launch of X1. You may complain about my methodology, but atleast I have one which provides plausible numbers, contrary to a lot of other people in these forums.

I definitely believe it will be there. Halo is going to sky rocket those sales. Not to mention the mod exclusivity for Fallout 4. More people may get it for Xbox One instead of PS4.

Simple logic dictates that we cannot discuss sell-through without looking at shipments. And, as I mentioned, 11mn sounds reasonable based of the shipments, and it is backed up by VGC numbers.

ummm what..... 

You cannot compare NPD to VGChartz at all, especially when NPD use POS tracking and VGChartz just make up numbers based on guesses. VGChartz can be off NPD numbers by a huge amount, and I have the evidence at hand to say that. 

Also who are MCV? Are you sure you don't mean GfK? MCV publish numbers from GfK, they're an industry magazine/website. 

You really don't know what you're talking about mate. Your numbers aren't plausable or definitive, they're based on assumptions with no basis. 

Same with Ryng guy, he's guessing at ratio's and probables, not using any definitives at all. 

Over 8.7 million as an absolute minimum based on hard data. 

Approximately 10.5 million+ based on IDG estimates.