Will Rise of the Tomb Raider be a commercial flop this fall?

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Commercial flop by whose standards?

At a point when the reboot sold over 6M, SE said it was a failure.

I don't think any game that sells 2-3M is a commercial flop, so no, I don't think it will be one.

But if over 6M is a failure to SE, then this game will be a flop to them (implying that I don't believe it will sellin 6M+).

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Skullwaker said:
Hiku said:
While I think it'll sell well, I'm pretty sure SE didn't expect that release schedule when they made the deal. It looks like it's coming out the same month as UC4 on PS4 as well.

Uhh...how do you figure that? That would be a terrible business decision. o.o

Whe I wrote that I forgot where I got that info from. But now I remember, it wasn't official, but rather a discussion on Neogaf and here, info from someone reliable on Gaf (Kagarii I think, she works for SE iirc). But this was before ND delayed UC4 to that same month, and then people started discussing if Sony did that on purpose to mess with SE (Which I don't think they would do deliberately. They have a good relationship with SE, obviously. Why risk that.)
So if it's true, then perhaps SE will move the release date on PS4 to not collide with UC4. It would be pretty stupid to have it come out the same month.

LudicrousSpeed said:

A + B - C = D

D > E = Not a flop
D = E = Not a flop
D < E = Maybe a flop?

A = Amount of money SE received from MS
B = Amount of money SE receives from sales
C = Cost of making game
D = Difference
E = Amount of money required to qualify as "flop"

Considering we don't know A, B, C, D, or E (and E is subjective) my opinion is.... who the heck knows. It could sell 500k this holiday and still exceed SE expectations for all we know.

Commercial flop. I am not worried about SE or CD in this instance, whatever MS paid them it had to be enough to make them confident about losing millions of potential sales on the PS4.

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add me, the more the merrier.

teigaga said:

Relative to its potential, kinda.

I see it doing like 1.2m this year on X1. 2m lifetime on the platform

Had it been PS4 exclusive this holiday it would have done 4m before years end. 6m-7m lifetime.

Honestly I think it would have been overshadowed on the PS4. This is not about the XB1 versus PS4. The point I am making in this thread is TR is just not a big enough IP to start up against all those games. The games I listed are not just other big games. We are talking about THE biggest IPs you can think of.

psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

It's looking like it. It'll have an even harder time with the PS4 now with Uncharted 4 coming.

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it should sell at least 1m on xbox/360. if ~$30 million + whatever ms paid isn't enough to at least break even SE is doing it wrong.

once it releases on ps4/pc it should be basically all profit from there.

then again SE said they were disappointed with TRs sales after like 4 million so clearly SE is doing it wrong.

I don't think it will flop. Will probably do 1m this year alone on XB1, 2m LT. When it's released later on PC/PS4 I can see it doing another 2-3m (PS4+PC) LT.

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

I really hope not. The reboot was excellent and really fun to play.

Unfortunately it is stacked up against some stiff competition, but what's holding it back the most is the timed exclusivity on Xbox One. Xbox one has a strong line up of exclusives this holiday + the general big third party multiplat games will put Tomb Raider in a tough position. When it finally releases on the PS4 will probably be early 2016 which means it will go up against Uncharted 4 sooooo that probably wont end up well for TR either.

Hope it does well enough to continue the series, but poor enough on the One so it will no longer be inclined to support this timed exclusivity.

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it won't be a flop, nut I don't think it'll sell that much. maybe 1-1.5 millions???

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Yeah, its going to flop hard. Not because of its exclusivity. But, for one thing and one thing only, Fallout 4 comes out on the same day.