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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NX will be a flop if release in 2016

 

Do you agree?

Yes 170 66.93%
 
No 84 33.07%
 
Total:254
JNK said:
thegamerpad said:


Can you name the Sony first party support for this holiday season?  Please let me know what they've got coming first party this year...I'll wait

 

By the way Nintendo released 4 games in Quarter 3 & 4 last year for Wii U (Super Smash Bros, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors and Captain Toad) this year they have a planned 7 releases which include Xenoblade Chronicles X, Star Fox Zero, Yoshi's Woolly World, Mario Tennis Ultra Smash, Fatal Frame, Devil's Third and Animal Crossing amiibo Party.    So there's more coming this year than last year...why didn't you just abandon ship last year?   Zelda U got delayed, that hurt this years releases, oh well.

Ps4 released from now to end of 2015:

 

Until Down

No Mans Sky

Hellblade

Everybody gones to the Rupture

Rime

 

And some more smaller indie games.

Also they have ALOT in q1/2 2016 with ratchet and clank, Uncharted 4 and much more. A time nintendo have nothing on wii u so far and had like nothing in 2015.


Ok first of all here, you said Sony first party support for the holiday season. 

Until Dawn - Ok looks cool, we'll see how it reviews though...might be like The Order 1886 (which I enjoyed)
No Man's Sky - Does not have a release date, might not even be 2015, is NOT a Sony 1st party and is NOT published by Sony
Hellblade - Release date is 2016, NOT a Sony 1st Party NOT published by Sony
Everybody's Gone To The Rapture - August 2015 release, Sony 1st Party - ding ding you got one correct (some people are saying it's not even technically a video game)
Rime - No release date for 2015




So you said Sony 1st party and then you're going to state that Until Dawn and Everybody's Gone to the Rapture looks better than Nintendo's Q3/Q4 First Party line up?  Also I said 7 Nintendo games and forgot about Super Mario Maker too.

Now I know the Wii U obviously lacks third party support but for you to say that Sony's 1st party line up for the holiday season is better than Nintendo's is just flat out wrong.


Nintendo also doesn't like to announce games too far in advance, hence they get a black lash of lack of surprises and what not like this E3 since everyone already knew about Yoshi, Xenoblade, Mario maker, Star Fox, Fatal Frame, Devils Third all going into E3.  

Sony's Q1/Q2 looks strong with Uncharted 4 and Ratchet & Clank (I don't know what the much much more you refer to is).  I believe Nintendo's only early 2016 title is Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem.  There's still Zelda Wii U and other studio's projects floating around (Retro, Next Level Games, 1UP, etc) that hasn't been announced.

But still 8 First Party releases in the final 2 Quarters is pretty solid



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Pavolink said:
I hope they give the NX for free to the Wii U users as a compensation of the insulting decisions they have made this gen.

That's about the only way they could get me back on board.

EDIT: Post #18,000



potato_hamster said:
hansrob00 said:

3rd party publishers are desperate for money because the video game market is very competitive. With that said, Nintendo is probably preparing their major ips for a 2016 date with the release of the NX. I think they probably already have a number of 3rd party publishers on board, at least at launch. I think they are banking on doing a strong launch with their IPs combined with initial 3rd support (even the wii u had 3rd party support at launch). Assuming the launch goes well and sales remain strong for the initial 6 months which their initial offerings combined with initial 3rd parties should help, 3rd parties will begin putting their games on their platform as long as their new console or NX ecosystem sales remain healthy.  At least this is Nintendo's hopes I believe.


Third party developers can get all the money they need from other consoles without the greif of having to develop the game for multiple specifications. You can't possibly how much you're underplaying the added time and expense of developing for multiple specifications. It's practically the same thing as developing a multiplatform game, except it's just one platform. It would go over like a Lead Zeppelin.

Like seriously guys? You think one of the consoles is going to be a tablet? Are you thinking Wii U gamepad or iPad type of tablet, because if its the later, you could have the develop and test touch controls just for that version. You think one verison is going to be some super high specd beast that will be able to duke it out spec wise with any other console? Awesome! Good luck essentially making an HD remake WHILE you're developing the core game. Its absolutely ridiculous what you're suggesting. It is never going to happen.

Maybe, *maybe* there is a handheld and a home consoles that accepts the same game cartridges/disks. Maybe. But they would be remarkably similar in the sense that the NX console controller would more or less have to have the exact same number of buttons and layout of the NX handheld. The specifications would have to be practically identical, the only difference being that the home console outputs the game to the TV at HD and the handheld outputs it to a screen size resolution. If that is pretty much the only difference between the two, maybe it's possible. Maybe. But you would still be literally doubling most of the development costs.

Then either your handheld is going to cost and arm and a leg, or your home console is going to be cheap as dirt. There will be no tablet version. There will be no "hardcore, higher spec'd" version. That absolutely, 100% will not happen. If they do do this, and the graphical fidelity isn't at least as good as the PS4 and X1 are at the time, and the developer tools aren't improved dramatically, it will be the biggest Nintendo failure yet.

This is such an ambitious idea, and look at Nintendo's track record. Why on earth do you guys think Nintendo can actually pull this off well? Their network play finally rivals that of of Xbox Live! ...for the original xbox. Their developer tools are worst than a joke, because no one is laughing when they have to use them. This would require developing very close partnerships with your third parties, something Nitendo, historically has been pretty terrible at maintaining if they can establish one in the first place. Maybe it can be done, maybe such a concept could be pulled off successfully, but not by Nintendo.


Isn't easier than ever to port something over to a console, like that was the big thing about the ps4 because it was very developer friendly, and the ps4 is very similar to the xbox1, which at the end of the day is even closer to pc architecture...I don't know, I remember reading that somewhere in numerous places.

As for the money part, the video game industry particularly the so called triple AAA developers are in the midst of a transition with a lot of them going under , just not making money, or getting out altogether. And I reiterate my point, competition is fierce. As long as Nintendo's new console show healthy sales, which show good prospects of decent sales for the 3rd party, more will appear. However they have to get the launch right and even 6 months after show healthy sales, but I suppose we will see.



Nintendo can't understand that to be taken seriously they need power to back up their consoles. They have become a running joke as to how they are always behind, ppl are starting to see them as technologicaly retarded. Instead of being powerfull, I'm sure the NX will only be as powerfull if not even (god forbid) less powerfull than ps4 despite being 3years late. Instead they will once again bet on a gimmick, try to sell it to us as the future of video games. They will support the idea with 3 or 4 games that kinda delivers, but then will run out of idea and stop supporting it, meanwhile 3rd party will never bother with the gimmick.

What they need to do, is a powerfull console, that is both home and handheld. Kinda like the PsVita, with every games on the NXhome can be also played on the NX handheld. That way, even if the 3rd parties don't support the NX, Nintendo will be able to fully support it on there own since both all their handheld devs and homes console devs will be working on one single system instead of spreading their teams into two sides. Imagine a world with all 3DS nintendo games being also WiiU games taking advantages of WiiU specs, that is ALOT of 1st party games on one console.

No one would care about the lack of 3rd party if their home consoles along side SM3DW, MK8 and WWHD it also had those pokémon games, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario, Mario and Luigi, Mario Golf, OoT and MM HD, Link Between World, Kid Icarus etc... all taking advantage of WiiU specs. And once ppl don't care about the lack of 3rd party, ppl will buy the console and that will make 3rd party care about the console.

And offcaurse the same thing will go the other way around, the 3DS was hugely popular thx to 3DS games, now imagine these games with WiiU spec and the system also having WiiU games. Altho the catch would be that the 3DS was also popular thx to it's price, so maybe it would'nt work as well the other way around, but atleast you get a home console along it.


But offcaurse, I doubt ppl in Nintendo Japan see it... Or maybe they see something I don't...



 

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thegamerpad said:
JNK said:
thegamerpad said:


Can you name the Sony first party support for this holiday season?  Please let me know what they've got coming first party this year...I'll wait

 

By the way Nintendo released 4 games in Quarter 3 & 4 last year for Wii U (Super Smash Bros, Bayonetta 2, Hyrule Warriors and Captain Toad) this year they have a planned 7 releases which include Xenoblade Chronicles X, Star Fox Zero, Yoshi's Woolly World, Mario Tennis Ultra Smash, Fatal Frame, Devil's Third and Animal Crossing amiibo Party.    So there's more coming this year than last year...why didn't you just abandon ship last year?   Zelda U got delayed, that hurt this years releases, oh well.

Ps4 released from now to end of 2015:

 

Until Down

No Mans Sky

Hellblade

Everybody gones to the Rupture

Rime

 

And some more smaller indie games.

Also they have ALOT in q1/2 2016 with ratchet and clank, Uncharted 4 and much more. A time nintendo have nothing on wii u so far and had like nothing in 2015.


Ok first of all here, you said Sony first party support for the holiday season. 

Until Dawn - Ok looks cool, we'll see how it reviews though...might be like The Order 1886 (which I enjoyed)
No Man's Sky - Does not have a release date, might not even be 2015, is NOT a Sony 1st party and is NOT published by Sony
Hellblade - Release date is 2016, NOT a Sony 1st Party NOT published by Sony
Everybody's Gone To The Rapture - August 2015 release, Sony 1st Party - ding ding you got one correct (some people are saying it's not even technically a video game)
Rime - No release date for 2015




So you said Sony 1st party and then you're going to state that Until Dawn and Everybody's Gone to the Rapture looks better than Nintendo's Q3/Q4 First Party line up?  Also I said 7 Nintendo games and forgot about Super Mario Maker too.

Now I know the Wii U obviously lacks third party support but for you to say that Sony's 1st party line up for the holiday season is better than Nintendo's is just flat out wrong.


Nintendo also doesn't like to announce games too far in advance, hence they get a black lash of lack of surprises and what not like this E3 since everyone already knew about Yoshi, Xenoblade, Mario maker, Star Fox, Fatal Frame, Devils Third all going into E3.  

Sony's Q1/Q2 looks strong with Uncharted 4 and Ratchet & Clank (I don't know what the much much more you refer to is).  I believe Nintendo's only early 2016 title is Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem.  There's still Zelda Wii U and other studio's projects floating around (Retro, Next Level Games, 1UP, etc) that hasn't been announced.

But still 8 First Party releases in the final 2 Quarters is pretty solid


yeah there was one more big sony game i forget. well microsoft at least is alot better and sony just have many game in q1 2016 which wont arrive holiday season. first party = exclusives for me.



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Metrium said:
Nintendo can't understand that to be taken seriously they need power to back up their consoles. They have become a running joke as to how they are always behind, ppl are starting to see them as technologicaly retarded. Instead of being powerfull, I'm sure the NX will only be as powerfull if not even (god forbid) less powerfull than ps4 despite being 3years late. Instead they will once again bet on a gimmick, try to sell it to us as the future of video games. They will support the idea with 3 or 4 games that kinda delivers, but then will run out of idea and stop supporting it, meanwhile 3rd party will never bother with the gimmick.

What they need to do, is a powerfull console, that is both home and handheld. Kinda like the PsVita, with every games on the NXhome can be also played on the NX handheld. That way, even if the 3rd parties don't support the NX, Nintendo will be able to fully support it on there own since both all their handheld devs and homes console devs will be working on one single system instead of spreading their teams into two sides. Imagine a world with all 3DS nintendo games being also WiiU games taking advantages of WiiU specs, that is ALOT of 1st party games on one console.
No one would care about the lack of 3rd party if their home consoles along side SM3DW, MK8 and WWHD it also had those pokémon games, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter, Luigi's Mansion, Paper Mario, Mario and Luigi, Mario Golf, OoT and MM HD, Link Between World, Kid Icarus etc... all taking advantage of WiiU specs. And once ppl don't care about the lack of 3rd party, ppl will buy the console and that will make 3rd party care about the console.

But offcaurse, I doubt ppl in Nintendo Japan see it... Or maybe they see something I don't...

Umm you realize out of their 30 years of being in the video game business, they have been the most profitable out of all of microsoft and Sony. Go look at the yearly earnings of the various gaming divisions. They have only been unprofitable for 2 years, even during the gamecube years, they were making consistent profits. Yes, they made mistakes this generation, but I'm sure they have learned a thing or two, and they should not be underestimated. but we'll see.



hansrob00 said:
potato_hamster said:


Third party developers can get all the money they need from other consoles without the greif of having to develop the game for multiple specifications. You can't possibly how much you're underplaying the added time and expense of developing for multiple specifications. It's practically the same thing as developing a multiplatform game, except it's just one platform. It would go over like a Lead Zeppelin.

Like seriously guys? You think one of the consoles is going to be a tablet? Are you thinking Wii U gamepad or iPad type of tablet, because if its the later, you could have the develop and test touch controls just for that version. You think one verison is going to be some super high specd beast that will be able to duke it out spec wise with any other console? Awesome! Good luck essentially making an HD remake WHILE you're developing the core game. Its absolutely ridiculous what you're suggesting. It is never going to happen.

Maybe, *maybe* there is a handheld and a home consoles that accepts the same game cartridges/disks. Maybe. But they would be remarkably similar in the sense that the NX console controller would more or less have to have the exact same number of buttons and layout of the NX handheld. The specifications would have to be practically identical, the only difference being that the home console outputs the game to the TV at HD and the handheld outputs it to a screen size resolution. If that is pretty much the only difference between the two, maybe it's possible. Maybe. But you would still be literally doubling most of the development costs.

Then either your handheld is going to cost and arm and a leg, or your home console is going to be cheap as dirt. There will be no tablet version. There will be no "hardcore, higher spec'd" version. That absolutely, 100% will not happen. If they do do this, and the graphical fidelity isn't at least as good as the PS4 and X1 are at the time, and the developer tools aren't improved dramatically, it will be the biggest Nintendo failure yet.

This is such an ambitious idea, and look at Nintendo's track record. Why on earth do you guys think Nintendo can actually pull this off well? Their network play finally rivals that of of Xbox Live! ...for the original xbox. Their developer tools are worst than a joke, because no one is laughing when they have to use them. This would require developing very close partnerships with your third parties, something Nitendo, historically has been pretty terrible at maintaining if they can establish one in the first place. Maybe it can be done, maybe such a concept could be pulled off successfully, but not by Nintendo.


Isn't easier than ever to port something over to a console, like that was the big thing about the ps4 because it was very developer friendly, and the ps4 is very similar to the xbox1, which at the end of the day is even closer to pc architecture...I don't know, I remember reading that somewhere in numerous places.

As for the money part, the video game industry particularly the so called triple AAA developers are in the midst of a transition with a lot of them going under , just not making money, or getting out altogether. And I reiterate my point, competition is fierce. As long as Nintendo's new console show healthy sales, which show good prospects of decent sales for the 3rd party, more will appear. However they have to get the launch right and even 6 months after show healthy sales, but I suppose we will see.


Yes it is easier than ever to port a Playstation game to a Microsoft game or vice versa. 100% absolutely is. It still isn't trivial. It was incredibly difficult before and now it's slightly less difficult. It helps that Sony and Microsoft have made competent developer tools. However, the biggest factor in porting games isn't how "easy" the work is.  It's how time consuming it is. It's how many man hours your need to do that, it's how many people you need working on a game at one time to accomplish that. Sure, Engine work is a bit easier but that's a relatively small factor in the "ease" of actually developing a console video game in terms of time, money, and other resources needed to accomplish that feat. Adding a new platform to a game is an incredible amount of extra work.

Everyone seems to be predicting the collapse of AAA publishers. But it really isn't going to happen. The big players will get safer, sure, the smaller studios will go under, years and years of bad decisions can lead to a bigger player going under, but you seem to be looking back on the industry with rose colored glasses. Hundreds of studios have been going bust every year for decades now. Decades. The reason why it seems like more are going under now than ever before is because there are more game studios than ever before. The industry is going and continues to grow. Sure there are more people that want a piece of the pie, but the pie is bigger as well. AAA Third party publishers aren't going anywhere.

But let's assume it did. What happens when we hit a "video game recession"? Video game publishers get much more conservative with their dollars. They take on less projects, take on less risk, and contract teams. They cut the fat. They can just keep on making games for the PS4 and X1. They have already invested in those systems. They have the developer kits, they have the knowledge base from past titles. They have engines they've been optmizing for years. What makes you think they're going to turn and take on publishing a Nintendo game when the development costs for that unified platform are 30% higher pretty much across the board than it is for any other platform? Why would they do that? Why on earth would they turn around, and add a Nintendo platform that introduces new unknowns, more than likely horrendous developer tools, and requires a significantly higher investment to develop fora platform that historically has been a barren wasteland when it comes to third party sales? Do you realize how huge of a risky move that is? Practically every third party that has taken a big gamble on a Nintendo home console in the past decade has failed and failed miserably. Why take the chance? Developers would be out of their minds to touch that. I guarantee it would take at least 18 months of solid third party sales before the major players start taking it seriously, and that're more than enough time for the NX to end up with Wii-U like sales numbers.



I'm afraid to say this but you might be right. Since the N64, nintendo consoles has been in decline apart from Wii and we all know the reason behind this which will be very hard for nintendo to replicate again. If Wii U didn't do anything to change other people's mind, there is a high chance the decline will continue unless they bring something new to the table which is very unlikely.

You can also bet there won't be much third parties support because ps4/xbox one will still have a few years left and even if it get ports of those games, it will flop anyway and the cycle will continue.



You do know perception can change in 1 generation?



Nintendo has been on the decline since it entered the home console market. SNES sold much less then NES. N64 sold much less than SNES. GCN sold much less than N64. Wii was a fluke/outlier, whether you choose to accept it or not, due to the fad of motion controls (I've said this time and time again: does anyone really think the Wii, with its library looking awful similar to prior gens, would have sold so much without waggle? They still had your Mario, Zelda, MK, Metroid, etc. The only variable was waggle). Now that the fad of motion controls are over, Nintendo has to once again rely solely on its library, and as you can see, the trend they were following before began to resume with the WiiU. I theorize that the WiiU's sales aren't even so riduclously bad, either, in terms of historical reference to Nintendo. Had the Wii fell in line with Nintendo's trend, it would have sold much less than GCN, and then WiiU's numbers now would, as a result, not look so surprising. Wii's success paints WiiU in a bad light, but in reality, based on Nintendo's overall trend, WiiU sales are right where they should be. 

Unless Nintendo finds a new "fad" to catch consumers by surprise, NX will sell even less than WiiU.