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Prediction: Splatoon 1 Million Worldwide by end of May 2015

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Splatoon 1 Million Worldwide by end of May 2015

johnlucas said:
DonFerrari said:


less than 10M in 2.5 years but you expect it to rise to 240M (aditional 230M) in the next 2.5-4.5years top... something like 1000-2300% increase in its sales??? Don't seem that possible.


Let's see if I can break it down for you. It's a lot to cover but I'll TRY to be brief. Can't promise anything.

We must first understand 1985 & what it meant to the videogame industry.
1985 is the year Nintendo took over the videogame industry with the international Family Computer—known to you as the Nintendo Entertainment System.

That single move transformed so many things.

It moved the Nerve Center, the Capital of the Videogame Industry from the United States where it was born & moved it to Japan where it still is today.
It kept the entire NOTION of a "Videogame Console" ALIVE. Without the NES, gaming would be rooted around the home computers AKA personal computers or PC's.
It created resentment from home computer gamemakers who lost a potential market paradise BECAUSE of that NES.
It created resentment from arcade gamemakers who were prompted to serve the home console & lose some of their independence.
It brought much needed Order & Discipline to an untamed Wild West market prone to crashes from bubbles.
It made Nintendo the Lifesource of this Videogame Industry which all entities in the field draw from.
It made Nintendo THE BOSS of this Videogame Industry. Nintendo is the Sun of this Videogame Solar System.

Ever since 1994 with the debut of the PlayStation, those resentful 3rd parties of "The East" (Japanese arcade gamemakers) & "The West" (American/European computer gamemakers) have been in rebellion against Nintendo's Order & Discipline.
They're trying to undo what Nintendo put together in 1985.
They're trying to remove Nintendo as the Lifesource, as The BOSS.
The "Western" 3rds are trying to return the Capital to America & take it from Japan by pushing the PC gamemaking model over Nintendo's console model.
The "Eastern" 3rds want to maintain their independence & return to the days where they were The Boss of their own arcades.
But even with all of them put together, Nintendo shows why it is the Lifesource, why it can't be killed.
Doesn't stop them from trying though. They HAVE to do this or else be drawn back in to the gravity of the Sun.

That explains the Nintendo vs. 3rd Party fight.

***********************************************************************************

Detailing the 3rd parties themselves, we see them use the Sony Corporation to exercise their influence.
They use the Sony PlayStation as a vehicle for their Rebellion against Nintendo.
Sony thought they could use videogaming as a portal to their entire product portfolio. Ulterior motives in this gaming field.
But it turns out that the 3rd parties are controlling Sony not the other way around as you would expect.
Sony's not a gamemaker so they depend on their 3rd party vendors to supply product to sell their game systems.

But as soon as Sony showed up in the videogaming field they made a natural enemy in Microsoft.
What's the name of Sony's videogame division? Sony COMPUTER Entertainment.
Who's the King of Computers? Microsoft.
When Sony was courting 3rd party developers to make games for their original PlayStation, they got PC gamemakers on their team.
Microsoft knew that Electronics King Sony getting a hold of PC gamemakers would unravel Microsoft's plans in the technology sector long-term.

'Cause you see there are 2 major things that move technology, GAMES and PORN.
So Microsoft had to hang on to those PC gamemakers before Sony entrenched itself in Microsoft's field.

To stop this encroachment by this major Japanese company, Microsoft created Direct X.
The codename of Direct X was The Manhattan Project—which was also the codename to the Atomic Bomb.
Yes, Microsoft wanted to BOMB Japan's influence over the gaming sector in that World War II analogy you expect.
And Microsoft thought megacorp Sony was the key to Japan's influence.
They're wrong. It's Nintendo. But that won't stop Microsoft from targeting Sony.

Soon they made a Direct X Box or XBox to drive Sony & its PlayStation into the ground.
The codename of XBox was Project Midway. That resembles the 1942 Battle of Midway when the Americans turned the tide of the war against the Japanese in the Pacific Theater of World War II.

These codenames are not coincidences & this is why Microsoft doesn't mind losing billions & billions of dollars on this decade-and-a-half long project.
They're not here to make XBox profitable. XBox's only mission is to protect Microsoft's PC gaming empire from Sony by destroying the PlayStation.
Which will in their mind bring the Capital back to "The West" in America.
And they have the money to do it.

The longer Microsoft has been in the console market, the more Sony gets drawn into a tug-of-war over the 3rd parties to keep Microsoft from getting them.
The longer Microsoft has been in the console market, the more Sony focuses on "The West" instead of hometown at "The East" Japan.
PS1 & PS2 had a good mix of Japanese & "Western" games in their library but the PS3 & especially the PS4 have been heavily "Westernized".
Remember that Japan is STILL the Capital because of Nintendo, the biggest developer in the world.
Sony focusing on "The West" will make them lose The World in the process.
No console—home or handheld—since 1985 has won the World market without winning the Japanese market first.

NES won Japan, NES won The World.
Game Boy won Japan, Game Boy won The World.
SNES won Japan, SNES won The World.
PlayStation won Japan, PlayStation won The World.
PlayStation 2 won Japan, PlayStation 2 won The World.
Game Boy Advance won Japan, Game Boy Advance won The World.
DS won Japan, DS won The World.
Wii won Japan, Wii won The World.
3DS is winning Japan, 3DS is winning The World.

Nintendo made the Japanese market a handheld-first market over home console (through GBA & DS) but Sony is focused on a home console called the PS4 instead of their handheld console the PS Vita.
Following behind Microsoft to have control over "Western" PC gamemakers has not only lost Sony billions of dollars but has distracted Sony from focusing on their hometown market Japan. A market that is crucial for winning a console race.
Microsoft's & the PC 3rd party developers' plan to "Westernize" videogaming is working on Sony.
Sony has been "Westernized" due to their need to court 3rd party developers for support.
But you must sweep your own front porch before you sweep somebody else's. You must ALWAYS focus on homebase first.
Nintendo remembers this. Sony doesn't.

**************************************************************************

Why did I go through that long backstory? This is why.

Nintendo put out Wii U early cutting off Wii's natural lifespan in order to force both Microsoft & Sony into making a mistake as they hastily transition to a new generation.
Fooling around with Microsoft's XBox 360 lost Sony billions of dollars during their PS3/PSP era & they were trying to salvage as much of that loss as possible.
Microsoft put so much into the XBox 360 to undo Sony trying not to have an outcome like the original XBox vs. PS2 that they wanted to stay on that platform forever if possible.
But Nintendo said it's time for the 8th Generation ready or not. The others had to make a move.

The Wii U was talking about getting the 3rd parties on board. They knew the 3rd party was gonna screw them but by announcing that event it forced both Sony & Microsoft to make a move in order to keep Nintendo from having all the support.
The equation goes 1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party = Nintendo's Party. There's no need to buy a PlayStation or XBox if Nintendo has all the games.

Nintendo was not destroyed by the 3rd party's starvation tactics & in fact was making record-breaking amounts of money WITHOUT them during the Wii/DS era. That Lifeforce BOSS Sun thing I mentioned before.
They only need the 3rd party for volume. They only need the 3rd party so they won't have to do all the heavy lifting by themselves to power a platform.
They openly invited the 3rd party in with Wii but were dismissed. Wii U is the Wii that won't be denied.
Nintendo would create a market condition that draws the 3rd party developers back to Nintendo's platforms by choice or by force.
And Wii U is the vehicle to do it with.

Rushing Sony & Microsoft into the 8th Generation is the start of their plan.
That's why Sony & Microsoft built these consoles with off-the-shelf parts & used x86 architectures to make it quicker to get the system out & get games on it.
New generations used to have games built SPECIFICALLY FOR the new platform.
2005's Kameo was built only for the XBox 360 of 2005 not the original XBox of 2001.
2007's Resistance: Fall of Man was built only for the PlayStation 3 of 2006 not the PlayStation 2 of 2000.

This generation we're seeing major titles all in cross-generation status.
Titanfall is on both the XBox One & XBox 360.
Destiny is on both the PlayStation 4 & PlayStation 3 not to mention the XBox One & XBox 360.

2012's Nintendo Land was built only for the Wii U of 2012 not the Wii of 2006.
2013's Pikmin 3 was built only for the Wii U of 2012 not the Wii of 2006.

Sports games & lesser games like movie tie-ins are the ones who go cross-gen well into a new generation cycle not major marquee games.

And this also explains the dependence on "Remasters".
Because both of these systems were rushed to market to stop Wii U from owning the generation outright, both Sony & Microsoft are re-releasing recently released games (The Last of Us for example) to fill up an empty unprepared library.
It's one thing to occasionally release a title from over a decade ago to showcase for a new generation of people.
It's another thing to frequently re-release a game you put out last year or a couple of years ago & depend on it to bolster your library.

****************************************************************************

Simply put both the XBOne & PS4 weren't ready for the 8th Gen which is why the lineup is so dry & why so many major games got pushed back to 2016.
2016 being 3 years since XBOne & PS4 launched (2013).
It's why Gran Turismo 6, Sony's marquee racing franchise, came out on the PS3 instead of being a launch title for the PS4.
Why would Sony even waste time with Driveclub when they already have multimillion proven seller Gran Turismo?

Microsoft showed that they were clueless in transitioning to a new generation as exampled by the E3 2013 fiasco.
They put so much into the XBox 360 to succeed that they didn't know how to make another XBox succeed.
They were so focused on Sony last gen & then Nintendo shocked their world with Wii.
Now they didn't know whether to continue 100% focus on conquering PlayStation or to put some energy towards matching Wii U.
This is why SmartGlass exists & why they RIGHTFULLY put Kinect into the XBOne package out of the box.
Putting it into the box by default is how you make standards. It's the Nintendo way.

Wii U's struggles in transition from Wii made Microsoft's decision for them. Sony is the focus. Drop the Kinect.
That move will haunt them in the future overall but it spells a bad omen for Sony.
Now that Microsoft is once again 100% focused on defeating them, they will drag Sony into a War of Attrition fighting for the favor of the 3rd parties.
Sony is silly enough to get sucked into that battle once again.

In the Microsoft vs. Sony contest, you gotta remember this.
Microsoft has the MONEY but they don't have the MARKETS.
Sony has the MARKETS but they don't have the MONEY.

Microsoft can NEVER win the Capital Japan. This has already been proven hard with XBox One.
Microsoft is so-so in Europe. So the only market Microsoft has the most force in is its own home market the United States.
But what's happening in the United States? PS4 is taking over the American market.
Microsoft CANNOT let that happen. The whole reason why XBox exists is to root out Japan from influence on the videogame market.
Microsoft has already "Westernized" Sony so all they have to do is start the Tug-of-War & Sony will naturally fight.
But Microsoft's Money will win the Tug. Microsoft's Money will give them the edge in the War of Attrition.

Sony sold well over 20 million PS4's AND STILL Sony Corporation lost $1 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2015.
Everything PS4 has done is simply not enough. They're vulnerable as they try to climb back to profitability.
Microsoft knows this & will flex their money muscle to wreck Sony permanently.
Microsoft made $22 billion in net profits for their last fiscal year ending June 30, 2014.
Microsoft spent $2.5 billion for simply for Minecraft, 2 years too late.
They got the cash to do it.

Sony is cutting off branches & selling buildings to stay afloat.
Both the PlayStation & XBox are subsidized by their companies' other branches if they fall short.
Sony is cutting off their potential subsidizers the more they cut their branches.
Sony was foolish enough to pin the company's entire success on Sony Computer Entertainment, the PlayStation division.
Sony's not a gamemaker & the videogame business is very volatile. It can change course on a dime.
The PlayStation was once one of the many rings on Sony fingers. Now it is the ring around their neck.
They're putting their eggs all in one basket & that suits Microsoft just fine.
Now it will be that much easier to destroy them.

************************************************************

Nintendo planned for this outcome. This was the market reality they sought to create by putting Wii U out when they did.
In 2006, Shigeru Miyamoto said, "Too many powerful consoles can't coexist. It's like having only ferocious dinosaurs. They might fight and hasten their own extinction."
Nintendo knows the market hierarchy. After all they're the ones who created it in 1985.

It USED to be in this order: #1 America. #2 Japan. #3 Europe.
But after 1985 it's in this order: #1 Japan. #2 America. #3 Europe.

These ranks have nothing to do with population size. It has to do with influence power.
It USED to be what happens in America filters out to Japan & Europe.
Atari started the videogame arcade market in 1972. Atari Japan started in 1973.
The Atari 5200 controller design of 1982 was imitated by the Sega SG-1000 of 1983.

But with Nintendo changing history in 1985, now what happens in Japan filters out to America & Europe.
The Famicom/NES controller design of 1983 was imitated by the Atari 7800 in 1986.
Cell phone gaming which was very popular in Japan in the early 2000s is now imitated by iPhones & Galaxy tabs in the 2010s.

Sony has taken over Europe with the PS4 & that's the weakest market to conquer since it follows the lead of America.
Football AKA Soccer is VERY popular in Europe but who makes their soccer games? Electronic Arts, an American company.
Who's the other prolific soccer game maker? Konami, a Japanese company.
Rockstar Games is one of the most successful European developers EVER.
Who owns them? Take-Two Interactive, an American company.
How many European consoles have you seen come out? How many Japanese consoles have you seen come out?
How many American consoles have you seen come out?

AND it even matters on the PC realm. European PC gamemakers use Microsoft's formats. Microsoft is an American company.
The ones who work on the NEW PC's called tablets either work from Apple's formats or Google's formats.
Both Apple & Google are American companies.

The one who gets sway in America will influence the market of Europe since it's #3 in the pecking order.
Guess which company is gonna fight for America the hardest? Yep, American Microsoft.

But here's the thing. Taking over America without taking over Japan won't get you anywhere.
And Nintendo knows to serve Japan. They see Sony retreating from PlayStation Mobile & PlayStation Vita while they continue to push their 3DS & attack mobile DIRECTLY to usurp their market with help from DeNA.
Microsoft's belligerence helps Nintendo out because there are only 2 viable console competitors in Japan: Nintendo & Sony.
The more Microsoft distracts Sony, the easier it will be to push Sony out of Japan.
And when you win Japan, you win America, you win Europe, you win The World.

****************************************************************

And back to the 3rd Parties. Their rebellion is destroying them.
The AAA market the way they have been operating it is fragile & ready for a major crash.
Call of Duty seems to have peaked with Modern Warfare 3. It's still strong but it's eroding bit by bit.
These 3rd parties are spending more & more money to get less & less sales.
Assassin's Creed doesn't seem to be gaining the same heights as it did with Assassin's Creed III.
This 'diminishing returns' factor may explain why cross-gens & remasters are going on so much in this generation on these 3rd party-centric platforms.

The Japanese 3rd parties have ESPECIALLY taken the hit trying to follow the PC-rooted "West".
That's why they're half & half with returning to Nintendo especially on the handhelds or trying to find an escape through mobile AKA the NEW PC market.
But mobile is not fertile ground either. It's the modern day Atari market of the 1980s.
Yep, that makes it crash worthy too.
They can't even sell their games upfront anymore. They have to put it up for free then try to get money through the back door.
It's only a matter of time. The mobile market is a one-hit wonder style of market. It's not built for longevity.

Nintendo planned this WHOLE thing out. They're TRULY focusing on Apple & Google as their competition & see Sony & Microsoft as their lesser competition.
They're waiting for 2 crashes: the Crash of the AAA 3rd Party Console Market & the Crash of the Mobile Market.
Once this happens, the only viable platform left available will be Nintendo's AND THAT is how they get ALL THAT SUPPORT.
And once 1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party happens, it will be Nintendo's Party once & for all.
They will have UNIFIED the entire industry under them in every sense of the word.

They have already set in motion Sony's & Microsoft's mutual destruction & now with their announcement of partnering with DeNA they are planting the seeds that will disrupt Apple & Google & take them off of Nintendo's gaming turf.

************************************************************

THAT'S why I know, DonFerrari. THAT'S how they get those sales. The deluge of support once the crashes happen.
I tried to keep it brief but those details I put in are important.
The U in Wii U stands for UNITY. Wii already meant TOGETHERNESS. Wii U is merely the Wii Part 2.
TOGETHER UNITED. This is Nintendo's Master Plan for this videogame industry.
Watch what I say come to pass.

John Lucas


Marvelous story and quite interesting narrative (not all is factual, but I liked it)... but even like that it wouldn't explain 1000-2500% boost in sales... NES had the unity and it didn´t even passed 100M. PS2 curve stomped all and didn't passed 200M... how in the name of the lord is 240M possible??? It's like MS PR saying this gen was a 1B consoles one.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363


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DonFerrari said:


Marvelous story and quite interesting narrative (not all is factual, but I liked it)... but even like that it wouldn't explain 1000-2500% boost in sales... NES had the unity and it didn´t even passed 100M. PS2 curve stomped all and didn't passed 200M... how in the name of the lord is 240M possible??? It's like MS PR saying this gen was a 1B consoles one.


Simple.

In 10 years time (9 for the PS3), the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 have sold about 85 million units a piece.

85 million + 85 million = 170 million

Add Nintendo's numbers when they have all the support & how hard do you think it will be to get to 240 million?
One of the biggest obstacles for some gamers to support Nintendo is the lack of 3rd party support.
But if that's no longer a factor then they absorb ALL of the XBox & PlayStation audiences adding it to their own.
It's only a 70 million difference between 170 million & 240 million.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft can sell their platform by themselves. None of their 1st party efforts can hold down their platforms enough.
They are BUILT for the 3rd party to carry them.

When AAA 3rd Party Console Market crashes, it will take the XBox & PlayStation down with it.

But every 3rd Party is not willing to fall into the abyss & they will swallow their pride & began to share their franchises with Nintendo out of necessity.
The people who work in these companies have mortgages to pay off, college funds to replenish, families to feed.
Their pride will take a backseat to the need to survive.

And before you mention PC or Mobile AKA the NEW PC, let me remind you of this.

Many of these 3rd parties have already LEFT the PC. That's why they're making console games in the first place.
The money isn't there in PC like it is in consoles.
Why would a PC game company like Crytek even consider bringing their games to XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 if PC was so lucrative?
Grand Theft Auto V comes out on PC 2 years LATER than it did on PS3 & 360.
While Grand Theft Auto I came out on PC 2 months BEFORE it came out on PS1.
Why the switch from a franchise that was born on the PC?

As for mobile, if mobile was the key why aren't they there now?
Why would they even bother with consoles when there are WAY more tablets/smartphones in the world?
A few hundred million consoles in the world versus about 2 billion smartphones. It's no comparison.
Why don't we see Madden NFL or FIFA on the iStore? Why isn't Grand Theft Auto V & Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare on Google Play?
Why do these 3rd party companies only dip their toe into mobile instead of going all in?
The reason you don't see it is because they wouldn't get the return on their investments.
Adding all mobile revenues together might show you $20 billion to $30 billion but when you recognize that these revenues come from only 1% to 2% of all mobile users, it doesn't make it look like a stable market. Most people on mobile don't spend a dime.
It's simply the sheer volume of smartphone/tablet adoption that give that 1% to 2% such impact.
I don't think EA wants to sell Madden NFL & FIFA for $1 & try to build their revenues that way.
I don't think Rockstar or Activision would be happy selling GTA V & COD under the freemium model.

No. Consoles are the stable business.
And the reason why consoles are the stable business is because of the one who ensures that the videogame console still exists: Nintendo.
That's why their evolutions & changes in controller design, game design, & business structure are mimicked.
That's why I call them the Lifesource that everyone draws from.

When the bottom falls out, Nintendo will be the last man standing.
Nintendo will be the island in the flood. Nintendo will be the oasis in the desert.
And to keep from drowning in the sea, the 3rd parties will come ashore that island.
To keep from being buried in desert sands, the 3rd parties will bathe in that oasis.

The Rebellion will take a backseat to Survival because they have mortgages & college funds, & families to feed & fund.
Their Pride will take a backseat to their Humility.

Once this equation comes to pass—1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party = Nintendo's Party—Wii U will have those numbers.
Gamers go where their favorite games go. They might complain & gripe about picking up a Nintendo controller but they will get used to it.
They'll have to if they want to play their favorite games.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

johnlucas said:
DonFerrari said:


Marvelous story and quite interesting narrative (not all is factual, but I liked it)... but even like that it wouldn't explain 1000-2500% boost in sales... NES had the unity and it didn´t even passed 100M. PS2 curve stomped all and didn't passed 200M... how in the name of the lord is 240M possible??? It's like MS PR saying this gen was a 1B consoles one.


Simple.

In 10 years time (9 for the PS3), the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 have sold about 85 million units a piece.

85 million + 85 million = 170 million

Add Nintendo's numbers when they have all the support & how hard do you think it will be to get to 240 million?
One of the biggest obstacles for some gamers to support Nintendo is the lack of 3rd party support.
But if that's no longer a factor then they absorb ALL of the XBox & PlayStation audiences adding it to their own.
It's only a 70 million difference between 170 million & 240 million.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft can sell their platform by themselves. None of their 1st party efforts can hold down their platforms enough.
They are BUILT for the 3rd party to carry them.

When AAA 3rd Party Console Market crashes, it will take the XBox & PlayStation down with it.

But every 3rd Party is not willing to fall into the abyss & they will swallow their pride & began to share their franchises with Nintendo out of necessity.
The people who work in these companies have mortgages to pay off, college funds to replenish, families to feed.
Their pride will take a backseat to the need to survive.

And before you mention PC or Mobile AKA the NEW PC, let me remind you of this.

Many of these 3rd parties have already LEFT the PC. That's why they're making console games in the first place.
The money isn't there in PC like it is in consoles.
Why would a PC game company like Crytek even consider bringing their games to XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 if PC was so lucrative?
Grand Theft Auto V comes out on PC 2 years LATER than it did on PS3 & 360.
While Grand Theft Auto I came out on PC 2 months BEFORE it came out on PS1.
Why the switch from a franchise that was born on the PC?

As for mobile, if mobile was the key why aren't they there now?
Why would they even bother with consoles when there are WAY more tablets/smartphones in the world?
A few hundred million consoles in the world versus about 2 billion smartphones. It's no comparison.
Why don't we see Madden NFL or FIFA on the iStore? Why isn't Grand Theft Auto V & Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare on Google Play?
Why do these 3rd party companies only dip their toe into mobile instead of going all in?
The reason you don't see it is because they wouldn't get the return on their investments.
Adding all mobile revenues together might show you $20 billion to $30 billion but when you recognize that these revenues come from only 1% to 2% of all mobile users, it doesn't make it look like a stable market. Most people on mobile don't spend a dime.
It's simply the sheer volume of smartphone/tablet adoption that give that 1% to 2% such impact.
I don't think EA wants to sell Madden NFL & FIFA for $1 & try to build their revenues that way.
I don't think Rockstar or Activision would be happy selling GTA V & COD under the freemium model.

No. Consoles are the stable business.
And the reason why consoles are the stable business is because of the one who ensures that the videogame console still exists: Nintendo.
That's why their evolutions & changes in controller design, game design, & business structure are mimicked.
That's why I call them the Lifesource that everyone draws from.

When the bottom falls out, Nintendo will be the last man standing.
Nintendo will be the island in the flood. Nintendo will be the oasis in the desert.
And to keep from drowning in the sea, the 3rd parties will come ashore that island.
To keep from being buried in desert sands, the 3rd parties will bathe in that oasis.

The Rebellion will take a backseat to Survival because they have mortgages & college funds, & families to feed & fund.
Their Pride will take a backseat to their Humility.

Once this equation comes to pass—1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party = Nintendo's Party—Wii U will have those numbers.
Gamers go where their favorite games go. They might complain & gripe about picking up a Nintendo controller but they will get used to it.
They'll have to if they want to play their favorite games.

John Lucas

Well, I don't think the 2 will get out of the console bussiness this gen, and if tht happen a lot of people would preffer to buy a pc than a WiiU (even more with gen late graphics)... I will buy a WiiU, but even if there were no competition I doubt WiiU would reach 50M.

But that will be a long prediction, let's wait it happen (the conditions). I just won't wish good luck for you because I want PS4 to stick around.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363


johnlucas said:
DonFerrari said:


Marvelous story and quite interesting narrative (not all is factual, but I liked it)... but even like that it wouldn't explain 1000-2500% boost in sales... NES had the unity and it didn´t even passed 100M. PS2 curve stomped all and didn't passed 200M... how in the name of the lord is 240M possible??? It's like MS PR saying this gen was a 1B consoles one.


Simple.

In 10 years time (9 for the PS3), the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 have sold about 85 million units a piece.

85 million + 85 million = 170 million

Add Nintendo's numbers when they have all the support & how hard do you think it will be to get to 240 million?
One of the biggest obstacles for some gamers to support Nintendo is the lack of 3rd party support.
But if that's no longer a factor then they absorb ALL of the XBox & PlayStation audiences adding it to their own.
It's only a 70 million difference between 170 million & 240 million.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft can sell their platform by themselves. None of their 1st party efforts can hold down their platforms enough.
They are BUILT for the 3rd party to carry them.

When AAA 3rd Party Console Market crashes, it will take the XBox & PlayStation down with it.

But every 3rd Party is not willing to fall into the abyss & they will swallow their pride & began to share their franchises with Nintendo out of necessity.
The people who work in these companies have mortgages to pay off, college funds to replenish, families to feed.
Their pride will take a backseat to the need to survive.

And before you mention PC or Mobile AKA the NEW PC, let me remind you of this.

Many of these 3rd parties have already LEFT the PC. That's why they're making console games in the first place.
The money isn't there in PC like it is in consoles.
Why would a PC game company like Crytek even consider bringing their games to XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 if PC was so lucrative?
Grand Theft Auto V comes out on PC 2 years LATER than it did on PS3 & 360.
While Grand Theft Auto I came out on PC 2 months BEFORE it came out on PS1.
Why the switch from a franchise that was born on the PC?

As for mobile, if mobile was the key why aren't they there now?
Why would they even bother with consoles when there are WAY more tablets/smartphones in the world?
A few hundred million consoles in the world versus about 2 billion smartphones. It's no comparison.
Why don't we see Madden NFL or FIFA on the iStore? Why isn't Grand Theft Auto V & Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare on Google Play?
Why do these 3rd party companies only dip their toe into mobile instead of going all in?
The reason you don't see it is because they wouldn't get the return on their investments.
Adding all mobile revenues together might show you $20 billion to $30 billion but when you recognize that these revenues come from only 1% to 2% of all mobile users, it doesn't make it look like a stable market. Most people on mobile don't spend a dime.
It's simply the sheer volume of smartphone/tablet adoption that give that 1% to 2% such impact.
I don't think EA wants to sell Madden NFL & FIFA for $1 & try to build their revenues that way.
I don't think Rockstar or Activision would be happy selling GTA V & COD under the freemium model.

No. Consoles are the stable business.
And the reason why consoles are the stable business is because of the one who ensures that the videogame console still exists: Nintendo.
That's why their evolutions & changes in controller design, game design, & business structure are mimicked.
That's why I call them the Lifesource that everyone draws from.

When the bottom falls out, Nintendo will be the last man standing.
Nintendo will be the island in the flood. Nintendo will be the oasis in the desert.
And to keep from drowning in the sea, the 3rd parties will come ashore that island.
To keep from being buried in desert sands, the 3rd parties will bathe in that oasis.

The Rebellion will take a backseat to Survival because they have mortgages & college funds, & families to feed & fund.
Their Pride will take a backseat to their Humility.

Once this equation comes to pass—1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party = Nintendo's Party—Wii U will have those numbers.
Gamers go where their favorite games go. They might complain & gripe about picking up a Nintendo controller but they will get used to it.
They'll have to if they want to play their favorite games.

John Lucas

The only way all of this nonsense would be any bit possible (and by that I mean about 100 trillion to one) is if the PS4 and Xbox One never existed, but they do. They will not drop off the face of the planet. All PS4 users and Xbox One users aren't going to wake up one day and their consoles refuse to turn on. Those consoles still exist. They will continue to exist no matter what happens to Sony or MS, neither of which have shown any indication that they're ready to drop out of the console market. But even if they did, chances are they wouldn't do so until after this console generation was over. They've already spent the vast chunk of their investment designing, developing and producing these consoles, the maintenance of such is a mere fraction of that. But let's assume they don't like making money and just shut down everything because they just love Nintendo that much. Let's go with that ridiculous assumption.

Okay, so *poof* the whole world has useless PS4s and Xbox Ones! Now let's look at that magical crash. How on earth do you imagine this is going to happen? Exactly how? It would require the likes of EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Square Enix, Konami etc. to all go bankrupt overnight! Last I checked they are all making hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars a year. How on earth are people going flat out stop buying console games for it to actually bankrupt these companies? If AAA games no longer justify their cost these publishers aren't going to keep making them and losing money hand over fist! They will scale back. They will make games that cost less that will make them money. They're not complete idiots. They're not going to print more copies of the game than there are consoles to play them. This crash will never happen! But let's pretend these businesses wake up one day, start hating money, want to piss away all the money they have in the bank, because they love Nintendo just that much they just want to see them thrive off of no competition.

So no PS4, no Xbox One, no EA, not Activision, no Ubsoft, no Square Enix. Gone. Even still, King of Nintendo history, are you forgetting about the NES and the SNES, consoles that HAD all of the third party support? Had being the keyword there because those third parties abandoned Nintendo because the grass was greener on any other side. I have personally worked with Nintendo and they are a nightmare compared to working with Sony and Microsoft. There developer kits are difficult to work with and their developer tools are absymal. It is twice as hard to make something look half as nice on a Nintendo platform. It's awful. That is the main reason third parties abandoned Nintendo, and there is no reason to go back even if they were the only console option. These bankrupted companies are somehow going to come back from the dead, and see the Nintendo light?

"Well gee. We can't seem to sell enough games on a console that has 20+ million in sales to make a profit. Let's not scale back production costs. That's ridiculous. I know! We should just start making games for the console that has less than 10 million in sales!" - No one ever.

They can and absolutely would flock to PCs instead. Most all console games have a running build on PCs anyways (even Nintendo games). Steam Machines would take off instead of the Wii U. 

Of course this is all fiction. You keep talking about how the PS3 and X360 are 9 and 10 years old. Let me reiterate once again, ohh King of Nintendo history. The longest period of time Nintendo has gone between releasing a new home console is 7 years. Not 9 years. Not 10 years. 7. When sales are abysmal like Wii U sales, they release tend to release a new console even sooner. A New Nitendo home console will be out *no later* than Fall of 2018. You and I both know that, since trends can never be broken. That's 3 years for the third party console video game publishers to go from collectively making billions to collectively losing billions. I wonder what magical even is going to spark these companies to lose all their business sense and forget to make more than they spend.  Ohh right. Nothing.

You talk about how consoles are a stable business in one breath, and talk about how third parties are going to crash in the other. So which is it? Let me guess - Nintendo is the only stable one. Sony and MS are doomed. So by "consoles" you mean "Nintendo consoles". And I know what you mean. Aside from the Wii, the last 3 Nintendo consoles (Wii U, Gamecube, and N64) sold less than 35 million consoles world wide. If you go back even further, aside from the Wii, Nintendo has never had a console sell higher than 61 million. The Wii was the exception, not the rule. That doesn't appear to be too stable to me. Do you know what does sound stable? 80+ million in sales for every single console Sony has ever made. That appears to be a much more stable platform to me. Sony at its worst is better than the average Nintendo console in sales. Again, the Wii was an exception. It is not the rule. Learn some history.

Face it John Lucas. It's not happening. It's never happening, and I'm willing to bet my future on this site on it. Of course you won't even acknowledge such a challenge because you obviously can't possibly believe this nonsense any more than anyone else. Let it go John. You're embarassing yourself.

P.S. If Sony and MS can't sell consoles by themselves, then what exactly is Nintendo doing with the Wii U? Because they're certainly not selling that by themselves very well. Also, Madden and Fifa are available on both iOS and Android.



And there you go. Officially, first week sales (not first four days): Under 500K world-wide. Which probably means good old John Lucas missed his prediction by anywhere between 650K and 700K. How does it feel to be so wrong?

Around the Network

Well well.

Strong Start For Nintendo's Wii U Shooter Splatoon

 

"Nintendo has announced its quirky team-based shooter Splatoon has sold over one million copies worldwide.

According to official figures provided by the platform holder, more than 230,000 physical and digital copies were sold in Europe, while the Japanese market accounted for 360,000.

476,000 copies were sold in North America, while Australians purchased 20,000 units."

 

Now let's see what VGChartz puts together once they finally catch up the software charts to the current week. We're still in April on these charts I see.
People out here trying to downplay this game with those bogus UK numbers as if UK's the entirety of Europe.
It seems that the UK 20,000 people were pawning off on me was actually in Australia.

I told you that you won't know the full figures until Nintendo releases the digital data.
Digital sales are always a question mark that can only be answered by the companies themselves.
The existence of digital sales actually hampers sales trackers like NPD AND VGChartz.
They're only getting partial pictures.

It won't even bother me if Splatoon didn't make a million in its 1st 4 days.
I believed in the power of this game & knew it had selling power ever since E3 2014.
If it only got 750,000 out of 1,000,000, that's good enough for me.
It'll leave a sour taste in the naysayers' mouths to brag that Splatoon only missed it by a quarter million.

Either way you cut it tbone got it right.
John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

johnlucas said:

Well well.

Strong Start For Nintendo's Wii U Shooter Splatoon

 

"Nintendo has announced its quirky team-based shooter Splatoon has sold over one million copies worldwide.

According to official figures provided by the platform holder, more than 230,000 physical and digital copies were sold in Europe, while the Japanese market accounted for 360,000.

476,000 copies were sold in North America, while Australians purchased 20,000 units."

 

Now let's see what VGChartz puts together once they finally catch up the software charts to the current week. We're still in April on these charts I see.
People out here trying to downplay this game with those bogus UK numbers as if UK's the entirety of Europe.
It seems that the UK 20,000 people were pawning off on me was actually in Australia.

I told you that you won't know the full figures until Nintendo releases the digital data.
Digital sales are always a question mark that can only be answered by the companies themselves.
The existence of digital sales actually hampers sales trackers like NPD AND VGChartz.
They're only getting partial pictures.

It won't even bother me if Splatoon didn't make a million in its 1st 4 days.
I believed in the power of this game & knew it had selling power ever since E3 2014.
If it only got 750,000 out of 1,000,000, that's good enough for me.
It'll leave a sour taste in the naysayers' mouths to brag that Splatoon only missed it by a quarter million.

Either way you cut it tbone got it right.
John Lucas


What do you mean IF? Splatoon did under 500K First week. This is a know fact. The game has been out for nearly a month, and in that month it sold a million copies. In the first four days? Under 500K, likely under 350K. But of course you think you're only off by 25% instead of the reality of 50-65% based on literally nothing but wishful thinking.

You keep actling like you're some kind of video game Nostradamus, predicting the end of pretty much every major player in the video game business, except of course Nintendo, which will rise from the ashes and start selling at the rate of all their current competitors combined. Meanwhile, in reality, Nintendo themselkves are predicting looking at the lowest period for Nintendo hardware sales since they started making both a handheld + console (1989).



potato_hamster said:
johnlucas said:

Well well.

Strong Start For Nintendo's Wii U Shooter Splatoon

 

"Nintendo has announced its quirky team-based shooter Splatoon has sold over one million copies worldwide.

According to official figures provided by the platform holder, more than 230,000 physical and digital copies were sold in Europe, while the Japanese market accounted for 360,000.

476,000 copies were sold in North America, while Australians purchased 20,000 units."

 

Now let's see what VGChartz puts together once they finally catch up the software charts to the current week. We're still in April on these charts I see.
People out here trying to downplay this game with those bogus UK numbers as if UK's the entirety of Europe.
It seems that the UK 20,000 people were pawning off on me was actually in Australia.

I told you that you won't know the full figures until Nintendo releases the digital data.
Digital sales are always a question mark that can only be answered by the companies themselves.
The existence of digital sales actually hampers sales trackers like NPD AND VGChartz.
They're only getting partial pictures.

It won't even bother me if Splatoon didn't make a million in its 1st 4 days.
I believed in the power of this game & knew it had selling power ever since E3 2014.
If it only got 750,000 out of 1,000,000, that's good enough for me.
It'll leave a sour taste in the naysayers' mouths to brag that Splatoon only missed it by a quarter million.

Either way you cut it tbone got it right.
John Lucas


What do you mean IF? Splatoon did under 500K First week. This is a know fact. The game has been out for nearly a month, and in that month it sold a million copies. In the first four days? Under 500K, likely under 350K. But of course you think you're only off by 25% instead of the reality of 50-65% based on literally nothing but wishful thinking.

You keep actling like you're some kind of video game Nostradamus, predicting the end of pretty much every major player in the video game business, except of course Nintendo, which will rise from the ashes and start selling at the rate of all their current competitors combined. Meanwhile, in reality, Nintendo themselkves are predicting looking at the lowest period for Nintendo hardware sales since they started making both a handheld + console (1989).


So you had inside information on their digital numbers, is that right?
Physical sales trackers INCLUDING THIS ONE have been compromised by the existence of digital sales.
All you can track is the physical. You don't know the digital. You CAN'T know until the company divulges the information.

Quit acting like you know so much. You DON'T know because you don't have access to all the information.
And spare me your extrapolations on digital because you simply won't know which game may have greater or lesser digital sales totals.

I'm now waiting for VGChartz to finally update these software sales numbers to see how close I got.
They shouldn't be stuck in April while we're in June for goodness sake!

From these numbers it seems once again that North America is the strongest sales region overall while Japan is strongest by percentage of population.
These figures fly right in the face of those comparatively small American numbers you tried to pawn off on me before.
I have a strong feeling that it EASILY cleared 500,000 digital & physical worldwide in the first 4 days AT LEAST.

I just want to see exactly how close to that million it got in that amount of time.
Maybe VGChartz will get around to the May numbers by August. We'll see.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

PwerlvlAmy said:
in two days? yeah this is definitely not happening. by the end of of 2015 though, I'd say definitely


Got em!



Predictions: PS4: 110m, XB1: 65m, Wii U: 15m, 3DS: 70m, PSV: 15m

Curl - 6 was right about Zelda U never being a wii u exclusive, I should have never bet against him :p  

johnlucas said:
potato_hamster said:


What do you mean IF? Splatoon did under 500K First week. This is a know fact. The game has been out for nearly a month, and in that month it sold a million copies. In the first four days? Under 500K, likely under 350K. But of course you think you're only off by 25% instead of the reality of 50-65% based on literally nothing but wishful thinking.

You keep actling like you're some kind of video game Nostradamus, predicting the end of pretty much every major player in the video game business, except of course Nintendo, which will rise from the ashes and start selling at the rate of all their current competitors combined. Meanwhile, in reality, Nintendo themselkves are predicting looking at the lowest period for Nintendo hardware sales since they started making both a handheld + console (1989).


So you had inside information on their digital numbers, is that right?
Physical sales trackers INCLUDING THIS ONE have been compromised by the existence of digital sales.
All you can track is the physical. You don't know the digital. You CAN'T know until the company divulges the information.

Quit acting like you know so much. You DON'T know because you don't have access to all the information.
And spare me your extrapolations on digital because you simply won't know which game may have greater or lesser digital sales totals.

I'm now waiting for VGChartz to finally update these software sales numbers to see how close I got.
They shouldn't be stuck in April while we're in June for goodness sake!

From these numbers it seems once again that North America is the strongest sales region overall while Japan is strongest by percentage of population.
These figures fly right in the face of those comparatively small American numbers you tried to pawn off on me before.
I have a strong feeling that it EASILY cleared 500,000 digital & physical worldwide in the first 4 days AT LEAST.

I just want to see exactly how close to that million it got in that amount of time.
Maybe VGChartz will get around to the May numbers by August. We'll see.

John Lucas

You do realize that posts such as the one I'm responding to is why no one takes you seriously, right? Pretty much the only reason people check out your posts and threads to see how you've managed to make even more ridiculous predictions and statements.

For your numbers to be anywhere close (within 250K, and even that's stretching the definition of "close"), digital sales would have to be at least equal, if not higher than phyical copy sales. If such thing actually happened, it would exceed all previous physical/digital sales ratios for the first week on the Wii U by 1000%. Thats right. The digital sales would have to be 10 times higher in its first week than any other Wii U game on the planet. I'm not even sure if any console game's digital copy has ever sold even 30% of physical copies in first week sales ever. If you want to pretend this is not only feasible, but likely, then you better be prepared to lose the remnants of credibility you have left.

And while I agree that it's "technically possible", it's about as likely as you one day becoming the President of Nintendo, because that's "technically possible" as well. You and I both know that will never happen despite what wishful thinking you might have. Then again, such chances increase every day as sales for Nintendo hardware continue to plummet.

But don't fret, I'm sure Sony and Microsoft will be exiting the console market any day now (as you predicted), stop selling their consoles in any capacity, causing third parties to flock to Nintendo and the Wii U (as you predicted), and causing Wii U sales to sky rocket to a point where it sells over 200 million consoles life time (as you predicted).

Also, how about that bet I proposed? Still no answer? It's hard to believe that someone who believes what they say so much won't take a bet that's clearly in their favor (only if you actually believe what you say)to get rid of one of their major detractors forever. You don't want to be percieved as someone who does not stand by their words do you?