Many of you will think that is a pretty bold statement, but I'm pretty sure Sony has the American's holiday in the bag. I'm also very confident that Sony is going to cut the price (I personally believe about 100 USD) and announce at least one game for the holiday at E3. Nevertheless, these are the reasons I believe will make the PS4 win even without these advantages:

1. Mindshare: despite what many are saying recently, PS4 still retains a lot of good mindshare due to their strategy of spreading exclusive throughout the year, and even thought they don't have right now huge AAA games releasing for the holiday, they still have a lot of middle size exclusives for a variety of people. And of course Bloodborne.

2. Marketing: Sony is playing really smart this gen, and there really isn't much competition in this regard. Apart from advertisement and such, Sony is really good at making bundles. They usually make bundles with high profile games and with a special edition console. Of course this leads to great sales for them (just look at the recent Batman Bundle example).

Lastly, the most important thing.

3. Marketing rights to the biggest games of holiday: let's face it, most people just want to play the annualised Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Battlefield every year, every holiday. Guess what, Sony will have marketing rights for most, if not all of these games. We already know that Metal Gear Solid V is going to sell a lot more on PS4. Star Wars Battlefront is the next big thing this holiday (even if the games sucks it will sell a lot just because of the movie hype), so it is a huge win for Sony. Call of Duty Black Ops 3 and Assassin's Creed Syndicate are also heavily rumored that are Playstation associated. Sony only needs to make a special edition bundle with Battlefront and/or Call of Duty with a temporary price cut and there will be no match. Toss in the exclusives I mentioned before and there you have it.

Now Microsoft: they have Halo 5 of course and it will sell very good I suppose, but will it be a huge system seller? Considering Halo 4 performance as system seller and the bad reputation after The Master Chief Collection, I am not really sure about it. But even if it does well, that's the only thing they got to sell consoles. Forza 6 isn't a system seller and Tomb Raider too, being a timed exclusive, won't be. Fable Legends is a free to play and the rumored Gears of War Remsterd, well, it's a remastered. Not to mention that the effects of all these games, apart from Halo, will be reduced by the huge amount of big third party games. Lastly, I don't see Microsoft repeating the stunt of last year about cutting the price, I believe they are betting everything on Halo 5 (just look at the marketing campaign that already started and all those marketing deals they lost). They won't go as low as 2014, losing tons of money isn't a sustainable strategy in the long run. Sure, they will have some nice deal here and there but going to the holiday without marketing rights with third party will hurt them a lot.

So, these are my thoughts, what about yours?

Please share your opinion.

If they don't drop the price, PS4 will get obliterated in the last few months of the year.

Why do you think so? What are the parts of my prediction that you don't agree with?

If you believe they will drop the price announce a holiday game at E3 how do you think you can ever be proven right or wrong with this prediction? :D

I think a pricecut is all but set in stone and the Uncharted Collection is also already almost confirmed for the holiday season, so what now? :P

I don't think so. But a $50 price cut along with the biggest games being marketed for PS4 only and some good bundles would ensure "victory". In the rest of the world though, PS4 will keep obliterating the competition.

I perfectly agree with you. It's just that I believe that even right know Sony is in a strong position to win the holiday. But yes, probably I will never know the outcome of my prediction given the price cut and other games that will be announced after the E3. 

Yes, ultimately the reason of this thread is that I strongly believe that the PS4 is going to win the holidays because of price cut and new games too. But I wanted to put some obstacles to make things interesting ;)

Sony probably will win and it sucks. PS1 was great, although a lot of the good games on that system have aged poorly. PS2 is one of the best game systems in history. PS3 won me over after a few years. PS4 is just a huge disappointment. I don't understand why people are buying it. The 8th generation for the most part has been one huge disappointment so far.

Halo 5 and another price cut from MS will give them a clear victory in the US. I don't think these third party bundles and advertising rights are anywhere near enough to go up against it, not without a price cut for PS4.

The sad part of this, is that it is actually possible.