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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Estimation of 3DS Software Sales Figures at the end of 2015. FINAL RESULTS!

So, this is my very first thread that I shall be authoring for this site. So to start out with a bang, I decided to take all the sales data from the top 40 3DS games according to VGChartz, do a little bit of math, and estimate where all of those games will be at in terms of sales figures by the end of the year.
(Note: This will not include the week where the end of December 2015 and beginning of January 2016 take place in the same week.)
So with that said. Here are the my estimations of what I believe the sales figures for the top 31 best selling Nintendo 3DS games, according to VGChartz, will be by the end of the year of 2015!

1)      Pokemon X/Y                    Year End 2014: 12.58           Current: 13.52                     Year End 2015: 13.37

2)      Mario Kart 7                       Year End 2014:  10.51         Current: 11.70                        Year End 2015: 11.25

3)      Super Mario 3D Land      Year End 2014: 10.02            Current: 10.60                      Year End 2015: 10.44

4)     Pokemon Omega Ruby/
Alpha Sapphire                    Year End 2014: 7.34              Current: 9.86                          Year End 2015: 10.68

5)   New Super Mario Bros.Year End 2014: 8.51            Current: 9.48                    Year End 2015: 9.07

6)      Animal Crossing: New
Leaf                                       Year End 2014: 7.56              Current: 8.65                        Year End 2015: 8.33

7)      Super Smash Bros.
3DS                                        Year End 2014: 5.47              Current: 7.09                          Year End 2015: 7.56

8)      Tomodachi Life                  Year End 2014: 3.81              Current: 4.81                          Year End 2015: 4.70

9)      Luigi’s Mansion Dark
Moon                                    Year End 2014: 4.08              Current: 4.46                          Year End 2015: 4.33

10)   The Legend of Zelda:
Ocarina of Time 3D             Year End 2014: 3.57              Current: 3.95                          Year End 2015: 3.83

11)   Monster Hunter 4
Ultimate                              Year End 2014: 2.41              Current: 3.73                         Year End 2015: 3.42+

12)   Nintendogs + cats            Year End 2014: 3.51              Current: 3.70                          Year End 2015: 3.63

 

13)   Monster Hunter 4            Year End 2014: 3.43               Current: 3.44                          Year End 2015: 3.45

13)   Youkai Watch 2 Ganso/
Honke                                   Year End 2014: 3.06              Current: 3.16                          Year End 2015: 3.32

15)   The Legend of Zelda: A
Link Between Worlds         Year End 2014: 2.38                Current: 2.84                          Year End 2015: 2.70

16)   Monster Hunter Tri          Year End 2014: 2.69                Current: 2.76                          Year End 2015: 2.80

 

17)   Youkai Watch 2
Shinuchi                               Year End 2014: 2.25                Current: 2.67                          Year End 2015: 3.03 EDIT

 18) Animal Crossing:
Happy Home Designer        July 30th, 2015: 0.52        Current: 2.56                         Year End 2015: 2.00+

19) Monster Hunter X            November 29th: 1.49       Current: 2.41                         Year End 2015: 2.00+

20)   Paper Mario: Sticker
Star                                        Year End 2014: 2.12               Current: 2.22                          Year End 2015: 2.22

21)   The Legend of Zelda:   February 14, 2014: 0.86            Current: 2.16                           Year End 2015: 2.00+      
Majora's Mask 3D

22) Yokai Watch Busters               July 11, 2014:  0.69        Current: 2.08                        Year End:  N/A

23)   Mario & Luigi: Dream
Team                                     Year End 2014: 1.81              Current: 1.98                          Year End 2015: 1.94

 

 

24)   Fire Emblem:
Awakening                         Year End 2014: 1.50          Current: 1.86                          Year End 2015: 1.79

24)   Donkey Kong Country
Returns                                Year End 2014: 1.59               Current: 1.77                          Year End 2015: 1.77

25)   Professor Layton & the
Mask of Miracle                     Year End 2014: 1.55          Current: 1.72                          Year End 2015: 1.69

 26)   Kirby: Triple Deluxe         Year End 2014: 1.33          Current: 1.72                         Year End 2015: 1.67

 27)   Mario Party: Island Tour Year End 2014: 1.27          Current: 1.67                       Year End 2015: 1.52

28)   Kingdom Hearts 3D:
Dream Drop Distance     Year End 2014: 1.43          Current: 1.53                          Year End 2015: 1.53

30)   Puzzles & Dragons           Year End 2014: 1.49          Current: 1.50                          Year End 2015: 1.52

31)   Youkai Watch                     Year End 2014: 1.31          Current: 1.44                          Year End 2015: 1.35+

32)   Lego City Undercover    Year End 2014: 1.18          Current: 1.39                          Year End 2015: 1.40

33)   Bravely Default: Flying     Year End 2014: 1.12          Current: 1.30                         Year End 2015: 1.29
Fairy

34)   Dragon Quest VII             Year End 2014: 1.24          Current: 1.28                          Year End 2015: 1.24

35)   Kid Icarus: Uprising          Year End 2014: 1.18          Current: 1.24                        Year End 2015: 1.23

36) Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:
  Gates to Infinity                  Year End 2014: 1.15        Current: 1.22                         Year End 2015: 1.20

37) Yoshi's New Island                  Year End 2014:  0.97      Current: 1.22                        Year End 2015: 1.10

38) Mario & Sonic at the London
2012 Olympic Games            Year End 2014: 1.15       Current: 1.18                         Year End 2015: 1.17

39) Super Street Fighter IV:
3D Edition                               Year End 2014:  1.10      Current: 1.18                         Year End 2015: 1.16

 

40) Pokemon Rumble Blast         Year End 2014:  1.09      Current: 1.12                        Year End 2015: 1.11

 

 

 



Now these figures are entirely hypothetical and are strictly my estimations based on the math that I've done. Most of these figures could very easily be either waay overtracked, or waay undertracked, or some may be close, but not quite there, and some may be right on the money. Only time will tell.
But in the mean time, let's all just enjoy it! :)

Bolded is for games released this year.
Italicized is for games that have reached or surpassed my predictions.



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Wow, those great figures.
3DLand is almost on par with SMG with a half of the installbase. It just show how the installbase is not a boundary to good Mario games.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Definetly. It may take a while, but I wouldn't be surprised if 3D Land eventually passes Galaxy in total sales.



I think the game most interesting on this list is Animal Crossing: New Leaf. It definitely has the best legs worldwide, so I wonder if it will ever get close to 10m.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

Before the end of the year? No.
Before the end of the generation? I think it's a lock at this point.



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Pavolink said:
Wow, those great figures.
3DLand is almost on par with SMG with a half of the installbase. It just show how the installbase is not a boundary to good Mario games.


Lol, Bruh..... Wii: 101mil     3DS: 52mil     WiiU: 9.5mil

No matter how you see it. A game on wiiu cant sell 10mil+ no matter how you look at it.

And also my point as well as mostly everybody else you keep thinking is wrong is even proved further by this, not the opposite!

World>>>Land (in terms of the actual game), World at 4mil on a 10mil install base vs Land at 10mil on a 52mil install base. Do you honestly think SM3DL on WiiU would be close to 10mil on wiiu? lmao XD



I think he was referring to the attach rate of Mario games on an install base.

Like how 1/10 Wii owners had a copy of Super Mario Galaxy.
And how 1/5 3DS owners have a copy of Super Mario 3D Land.
And how 1/3 Wii U owners have a copy of Super Mario 3D World.

Notice how the attach rate got noticeably closer and higher with each 3D Mario game (Galaxy 2 being the exception)
And while I do like World better than Land, I still say that Land is a fine game.



PAOerfulone said:

Before the end of the year? No.
Before the end of the generation? I think it's a lock at this point.

Yeah, I meant by the end of the gen lol.

That would be insane too. Animal Crossing has stealthily become one of Nintendo's top sellers. Probably ranked third overall, under Mario and Pokemon. Makes me confident that they'll release an Animal Crossing U, even if the console releases don't quite stack up against the handhelds in terms of sales.



Official Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE Thread

                                      

Yep, I'd definetly agree with you there.
Before I considered Nintendo's Big Three to be: Mario, Pokemon, and the Legend of Zelda.
I guess  I should take out Zelda and put Animal Crossing in it's place then... :(



tbone51 said:
Pavolink said:
Wow, those great figures.
3DLand is almost on par with SMG with a half of the installbase. It just show how the installbase is not a boundary to good Mario games.


Lol, Bruh..... Wii: 101mil     3DS: 52mil     WiiU: 9.5mil

No matter how you see it. A game on wiiu cant sell 10mil+ no matter how you look at it.

And also my point as well as mostly everybody else you keep thinking is wrong is even proved further by this, not the opposite!

World>>>Land (in terms of the actual game), World at 4mil on a 10mil install base vs Land at 10mil on a 52mil install base. Do you honestly think SM3DL on WiiU would be close to 10mil on wiiu? lmao XD

3D Land expanded the audience. 3DWorld was limited by the userbase. Easy and simple.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile