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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Super Mario 3D World will outsell Super Mario Sunshine

 

Who will win?

Sunshine 21 23.60%
 
3D World 63 70.79%
 
Who cares about Mario? 5 5.62%
 
Total:89

Nothing to worry but I hope it outsells. This will prove that userbase must not be a problem for Mario games.



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It's at 4.1 million shipped plus digital, so let's say 4 million sold.

After 75 weeks, Super Mario Galaxy had sold 67% of all it was going to.

After Super Mario Galaxy had been a year and a half on the market, the Wii had sold 47 million - a tad under half of what it was going to sell in total. The same seems to be the case for the Wii U, meaning that a similar development isn't very unlikely.

If 3D World follows the Galaxy trend, then it will sell 6 million in total.  The way it's looking at the moment, though, 3D World is looking to outleg Galaxy in relative terms. A nice way to show that is as follows: 3D Land (on the 3DS) it nicely outlegging Galaxy (in absolute terms - it's consistently selling 10-15% more than Galaxy did at similar points in its life), and the VGChartz sales of 3D World are outlegging 3D Land in relative terms. After half a year on the market, 3D Land had sold 2.8 times as much as 3D World, whereas in the following year, it only sold 2.5 times as much.

The VGChartz undertracking is more likely to be in the recent numbers (as the more time passes, the more time they have to get information to correct the old mistakes), meaning that 3D World is likely to have legged better than those numbers show.

In simpler words, legging worse (in relative terms) than Super Mario Galaxy seems extremely unlikely. 6 million is the low-end figure for 3D World. If it keeps up its current pace (from VGChartz, which might very well be underestimating it) against 3D Land, and 3D Land keeps up its pace against Super Mario Galaxy, 3D World will sell 6.576 million in total.

In conclusion, Super Mario 3D World's expected range is Super Mario Sunshine's sales +/- a quarter of a million. They'll sell virtually the same as each other.



There's no saying it won't, so we'll see! :D



 

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It will be a close one, but I think 3D World will manage to outsell Sunshine in the long-run! Besides, 3D World doesn't really deserve to be the worst selling 3D Mario game! Sunshine does though.



                
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