The EU right now definitely needs the strong economies like Britain and Germany. That's nothing new though. But the very fast growth within the last 15 years didn't make the dependance on the big economies any better.

That's not entirely true. The EU does give many benefits, but it is also extremely expensive and wasteful. I mean they make the UK parliment look like beginners with expenses. :)

I would rather stay in europe, but it needs modernising. It reminds me a bit of FIFA, kind of an old boys club who dont want to reform because they have it so good.

You realise a healthy economy is supposed to have its GDP increase over time, right? This would be a contraction at worst or stagnation at best. Either would be bad.

For comparison, the UK GDP has increased by over 70% since 2000-2013 (according to Google).

Totally agree, but i'm not sure how much Europe wants to reform, they are very much like FIFA :)

Someone mentioned the Rebate that Maggie got, I would note that we are not the only country to get one, and others get farming subsidies... that are just as weird and wonderful.

I don't know, I see Fifa as completely corrupt and incompetent whilst the EU show well-intentioned incompetence with hints of corruption.

It is also however a prediction based on the assumption that we wouldn't be able to take any alternative approaches with the new found freedom and ability to negotiate our own trade deals with other countries. It's very arbitary to have these studies because what is completely unknown, is trying to be tied down to someones set visions of what would happen.

The truth is, if the UK left the EU, no one has a clue what would happen. Of course the active line at the moment is if the UK leaves, they won't be able to sell to the EU countries as easily and will be heavily penalised hurting the economy. However, we purchase more from the EU than we sell, so arbitary trade cock blocking would actually hurt EU member states more than the UK. So ultimately, although that's the line, would that be the case?

Monday will be an interesting test. Greece has refused to meet the bailout requirements, will the EU let them slide out on Monday when they can no longer service their debts? Or will there be a miracle breakthrough this weekend? So far it's all be calling each other's bluffs because they don't want to set the precedent incase other countries (i.e. Spain, Portugal, Italy) etc all start getting the same idea. But are they willing to risk the stability?

We don't know, nobody knows, both UKIP saying we'd be much better off out of the EU making our own choices and setting our own terms, and the scaremongering from the Lib Dems, Labour etc about 3 million lost jobs, loss of investment etc are all pure guesswork at best and outright lies at worst.

The referendum is the logical way of putting the matter to bed one way or another. I'd rather have 2 years of "instability" from that with a firm answer at the end. Than yet more long decades of rowing bitching and moaning and political parties being torn apart and accused of being racist and allowed to stir up immigration and racial tensions.

Because it'll put the matter to bed one way or the other. We might make the wrong choice, but we'll have still voiced it and have to live with our consequences. As it is, the anti EU crowd are getting far too much say, it's influencing mainstream politics and is not going to go away without it. The total refusal of any say since the 70s despite the fac the EU is nothing like the EEC that the UK population voted on originally is also hugely undemocratic (again, freedom of movement is a big sticking point for many in the UK, no one signed up to that, and nobody, other than Labour got a say in whether it happened). A new vote would give this legitimacy because it's a vote on being in the EU in it's present form.

the rebate is still in play, and the rest isnt something new or unknow.

The UK economy would still grow just fine, it would just be 0.6% smaller by 2030 than if they hade stayed in the EU. So it's not a 0.6% shrink overall. And currently UK pays roughly 0.5% of it's GDP to fund the EU budget, and that budget will only get bigger in years to follow. And there are very big risks to UK's economy if they stay in the EU aswell. For example the banking taxes and other restrictions for the financial sector the EU is working on, witch would hurt London's financial centre hard.

It's educated guesswork though. Medium to large employers are less likely to setup bases in the UK (and more likely to move) if we leave for the simple reason it becomes harder to break through to the EU market, and other countries will give easier access (and in a few cases, better productivity). The idea that we'll have a better time of it negotiating from outside the EU is a joke at best considering the EU is the largest economic block in the world and therefore has a much stronger position at the negotiating table when it's all said and done.

In my own field in the sciences, leaving the EU makes it a lot harder to collaborate on major projects around Europe (scientific collaboration and subsequent output is less in non-EU countries, the UK currently punches well above its weight). This puts the UK at a major disadvantage in global sciences which has a knock on effect on the economy (for every £1 of investment in R&D, the economy benefits by £3 in 5 years due to the startup companies/industrial breakthroughs that form).

Even so, it might not be as bad as this study paints, but making a educated guess based on a full analysis of data is far better than the crappy sound bites the politicians try to ram down our throats.