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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Last Gen Sold 280m Consoles. How much will this gen sell? Predictions

200 million tops.

- Where Wii tapped into a new demographic, there is no such thing happening this time.
- PS4 will sell so well that it will actually choke the potential from Xbox One/WiiU, where as all 3 thrived last gen.
- Nintendo/MS will be frustrated with sales this gen to the point where they prematurely start a new gen, getting a head start on PS5 and thus cutting PS4's lifespan short.

Fun fact: MS made the (now evident) mistake of waiting 8 (8!!!!) years since 360's launch to launch the Xbox One. This was due to sustain its profitability. MS in the 6th gen waited only 4 years to drop its first console, due to severe lack of profitability in part to the clear monopoly of the PS2.

This gen could end as early as 2017.....either Nintendo or MS could jump the gun. Let that sink in :P



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

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Ryng_Tolu said:
GamechaserBE said:

History repeats itself:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=24567

No, not this time... ALL console are selling worst than all people expect as for now.

2011 / 2013 prediction for 3DS: 100,000,000 to 160,000,000, some people predict 40,000,000 to 70,000,000 for Vita and Wii U... and we all know what is happen.

This gen will be the opposite of last gen, with all console to doinng worse than the people expect.


@bold; lol no. The PS4 is beating everyones expectations, the XBO had a massive turnaround from the abysmal launch (not the launch figure, but gamer sentiment after launch).

OT: ~210 million





PS4: 110-120M
Xbone: 50-60M
Wii U: 15-20M

Between 180-200M combined. Reasons for decrease: Wii's loss of non-gamers. Traditional gaming will stay flat compared to last gen.



Teeqoz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

No, not this time... ALL console are selling worst than all people expect as for now.

2011 / 2013 prediction for 3DS: 100,000,000 to 160,000,000, some people predict 40,000,000 to 70,000,000 for Vita and Wii U... and we all know what is happen.

This gen will be the opposite of last gen, with all console to doinng worse than the people expect.


@bold; lol no. The PS4 is beating everyones expectations, the XBO had a massive turnaround from the abysmal launch (not the launch figure, but gamer sentiment after launch).

OT: ~210 million

By end of 2014, 80% in this site was sure to PS4 at >20,000,000 sold... and at the end, it can't even break 19,000,000.

The PS4 have sold better than much user ecpect in 2013, by first half of 2014, but now PS4 is not selling as the super level imo.

Some people predict PS4 at 30,000,000 sold by September 2015... ok, if will sell seriusly 30,000,000, we can say that PS4 is selling better than the people expect, but i doubt...

Remember, i hoped in PS4 at 170,000,000 lifetime one time...



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Samus Aran said:
thedawghousev2 said:
PS4: 160 million

Xbox One: 37 million

Wii U: 16 million

213 million consoles

Lol.

stop laughing at the disparity, xbone had a rough start



I'll just play it safe, and say ~200M.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

I'd say 190m

120m- PS4
20m- Wii U
40m- X1


I would predict higher for X1 but I think MS will end its life early like they did the original X1. Xbox10 will be here in 2017 I think and it will be BC



Hard to say, it seems like things were off to a flying start with the PS4 and then perhaps less growth yoy than some expected. The One hasn't really achieved lift-off yet but it's should have growth for at least a year or two more, the Wii U is the easiest to predict at this point; it's not really going anywhere.

My guess would be something akin to:

PS4: 90-100 million.

One: 50-60 million.

Wii U: 17-19 million.

Which leaves a total of about 160-180 million when all is said and done. I expect the PS4 and One to have fairly standard yoy growth rates with possible peak years in their 3rd CY or so, but I think the One will have the bigger growth in percentages relative to the smaller base numbers we're seeing, I think there is no chance of my previous estimate of 70% of the PS4's LT sales for the One coming true; they were too late with removing Kinect (would have been better if it was never mandatory to begin with) and becoming competitive on price and their major system sellers are yet to show for now.
I expect both the One and PS4 to taper off a lot more quickly than the PS3 and 360 did and their peak years to be a lot earlier on in the lifecycle.
I still think the Wii U will be replaced by holidays 2016, a belief I've had for some time and even way before any NX rumors surfaced, this will, of course, seriously reduce its chances of selling as much as the Gamecube (as an example) and I think that 20 million is a fever dream at this point, it has been 2.5 years already and it's not even halfway there.



PS4: 119M
XBO: 60M
WiiU: 16M

So 195M overall.