200 million tops.
- Where Wii tapped into a new demographic, there is no such thing happening this time.
- PS4 will sell so well that it will actually choke the potential from Xbox One/WiiU, where as all 3 thrived last gen.
- Nintendo/MS will be frustrated with sales this gen to the point where they prematurely start a new gen, getting a head start on PS5 and thus cutting PS4's lifespan short.
Fun fact: MS made the (now evident) mistake of waiting 8 (8!!!!) years since 360's launch to launch the Xbox One. This was due to sustain its profitability. MS in the 6th gen waited only 4 years to drop its first console, due to severe lack of profitability in part to the clear monopoly of the PS2.
This gen could end as early as 2017.....either Nintendo or MS could jump the gun. Let that sink in :P