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Post your UK Election 2015 prediction

Forums - Politics Discussion - Post your UK Election 2015 prediction

oodles2do said:
Kynes said:


UKIP got almost 4 millions and they also won only 1 seat, but I'm sure most people won't complain about it. The results with a proportional representation system would be:

CON: 240

LAB: 213

UKIP: 83

LIB-DEM: 53

SNP: 37

GREEN: 24

 

Practically forcing CON to negotiate with UKIP.


I do want voting reform, but not if it means a Con -UKIP coalition! Farage has stood down now, so hopefully that's the end of UKIP.


Actually that wouldn't have been enough would it, CON and UKIP is 323 and they need 326, so Labour could have done it with SNP and Green and Lib Dem. That's what I originally thought would have had to happen, 2 or 3 parties, maybe even 4 to get the Tories out.



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Leadified said:

I'm unfamiliar with UK politics but I'll give it a go.

VOTE PERCENTAGES

Conservative: 33 %
Labour: 36 %
Liberal Democrat: 6 %
UKIP: 15 %
Green: 4 %
(Others): 6 %

PRIME MINISTER: David Cameron/Ed Miliband/(Other)

Have a feeling Labour will barely edge out popular vote, but that doesn't say too much about seats. But that's just my guess, realistically it could go both ways.

Turnout: 66.1%


Conservative: 36.9 %
Labour: 30.4 %
Liberal Democrat: 7.9 %
UKIP: 12.9 %
Green: 3.8 %
(Others): 8.3 %

Was wrong about popular vote, but yeah. It really didn't say much about the seats in the end.



oodles2do said:
oodles2do said:


I do want voting reform, but not if it means a Con -UKIP coalition! Farage has stood down now, so hopefully that's the end of UKIP.


Actually that wouldn't have been enough would it, CON and UKIP is 323 and they need 326, so Labour could have done it with SNP and Green and Lib Dem. That's what I originally thought would have had to happen, 2 or 3 parties, maybe even 4 to get the Tories out.


Not really, as Sinn Féin doesn't participate on the house, so with 323 those two parties would have the majority. Don't forget that there are also other parties which would have representation, like the UUP on Northern Ireland, which are allies of the CON.



Kynes said:
oodles2do said:


Actually that wouldn't have been enough would it, CON and UKIP is 323 and they need 326, so Labour could have done it with SNP and Green and Lib Dem. That's what I originally thought would have had to happen, 2 or 3 parties, maybe even 4 to get the Tories out.


Not really, as Sinn Féin doesn't participate on the house, so with 323 those two parties would have the majority. Don't forget that there are also other parties which would have representation, like the UUP on Northern Ireland, which are allies of the CON.


Ahh yeah, I forgot about the really small parties. And I was just going off 326 from what they said on TV last night. I rememeber the mentioned about the house speaker too, but that wasn't until this morning. No one was prepared for an absolute majority!



Augen said:
The UK system is vastly superior to the US system, but there are some curious results for votes to seats in Parliament.

This is based off what I found from BBC.co.uk

UKIP gets 12.6% of the vote and 1 seat
SNP gets 4.7% of the vote and 56 seats (!)
Lib-Dem gets 7.8% of the vote and 8 seats

Really shows how the mechanisms within a voting system skew results. 5% of the population vote will have 8% representation while 20% of the population vote will have 1% representation.

lab won more % than the cons, but they lost seats and the cons won seats



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generic-user-1 said:

lab won more % than the cons, but they lost seats and the cons won seats

% of votes?  What I found on BBC shows Conservatives with 2 million more votes than Labour.


Augen said:
generic-user-1 said:

lab won more % than the cons, but they lost seats and the cons won seats

 

% of votes?  What I found on BBC shows Conservatives with 2 million more votes than Labour.

the gain of labour was higher than the gain of teh cons, but labour Lost seats while the cons won.



generic-user-1 said:

the gain of labour was higher than the gain of teh cons, but labour Lost seats while the cons won.

Oh, okay.  Agreed another oddity of the system with simple majority system. 



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8srGM9vnoFM

ahahahah



Augen said:
The UK system is vastly superior to the US system, but there are some curious results for votes to seats in Parliament.

This is based off what I found from BBC.co.uk

UKIP gets 12.6% of the vote and 1 seat
SNP gets 4.7% of the vote and 56 seats (!)
Lib-Dem gets 7.8% of the vote and 8 seats

Really shows how the mechanisms within a voting system skew results. 5% of the population vote will have 8% representation while 20% of the population vote will have 1% representation.


Scotland is 59 seats and 5.3 million of the population so just under 90,000 a seat

England is 532 seats and 53 million of the population so just under 100,000 a seat in theory

Each seat is first past the post but because each seat has a changing population and changing the boundries is resisted (labour really doesn't like the idea) getting truly fair results is always going to be a problem.