...?

XBO is undertracked by 5,000 unit Jan+Feb.

For March, XBO is at 173,000 as for now, and 60,000 last week... so, XBO must sell with avarance of 30,000 the next two week. Seem over...

It is overtracked unless it sells 30k in the next two weeks...

VGC have a weekly basis ~10k over what NPD shows for Xbone.

PS4 is most likely too sell over 20M units, with the amount of exclusives coming this year (particularly Q1, 2 & 3), 3rd party marketing deals for those major releases and overall preference of those games within the market.
PS4 is also highly likely to get a price cut down to $299 this year, a $100 price drop is usually what Sony does with their home consoles as the 1st reduction in official RRP and that is guaranteed to have a huge effect, especially with all of the games coming to the system.
Q4 should have R&C which is a big game, likely a few other games yet to be announced for that period.

Judging by the lack of exclusives until Q4 the majority of new 3rd party system sales will probably be made on PS4, I think XB1 may be level with last year's figures by the end of the year.
As history shows Halo is a game that people buy because they have an XBox, not a game that people buy an XBox for at launch or proceeding it's release, same goes for Forza.
There's a possibility of course that MS can announce more for Q4, but with them already having Halo and Forza I doubt it'll be anything that big from their stable of IPs, they already have a bought semi-exclusive multiplat, I doubt they'd risk more negative press by doing another deal like Tomb Raider.
Perhaps a Banjo or a Conker could be released this year or maybe Scalebound or Crackdown are further along than people think, though I'm not sure how effective they'll be at moving hardware.

I think XB1 will have sold between 7.5M and 8M by the end of the year and I think PS4 will top 20M.

Shipped numbers are basically sold numbers. After the initial shipment, all shipments will be supplying stores that will already have stock on shelves. 

PS4 Japan launch covers the fact that PS4 is doing much better there on average and MGS5 is bundled with PS4 so that should provide the Destiny compensation.  Also most likely a price cut this September judging by past Sony drops.

Eh, hard to tell with the PS4 because of many reasons:

1. China likely gave the PS4 some sort of boost that kept it up YOY or flat for the first quarter of the calendar year.
2. The PS4's summer lineup looks way better than last summer's. Some of its notable releases for that time period are the Batman bundles, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, and God of War III Remastered.
3. Metal Gear Solid V will give the PS4 a nice boost, as well, considering the series is strongly associated with Playstation. Hardware sales will especially rise if Sony releases the MGSV limited edition bundle. I believe there will also be a major Destiny expansion in September, where Sony has marketing rights to the IP.
4. For the holiday season, Sony has marketing rights to Battlefront and possibly (it's not confirmed one way or another) Black Ops III.

XBO will certainly be up YOY. The question is by how much?

ironic to see this "prediction" and your nickname
ps4 will outsell xb1 more than  2.5:1 in 2015

while last year, ps4 outsold xb1 by just 1.8 - 2 :1

at least your 8m xb1 figure does't seem to be way off. but 20m+ ps4 won't happen

In the prediction thread only 6/56 (11%) of people predicted the PS4 would sell 20 million or above. I don't know how that is considered many.

Anways, PS4 won't sell that much I expect it to be closer to selling 17 million this year and I think Xbox will sell 10+ this year.

what are u talking about?
sony is really great this gen with giving number. and thats the reason, why we have exact shipped and sold through number for the whole year

4.2 sold throuhg end of 2013 4.5m shipped
18.5 sold through end of 2014 10.9m shipped

that results in 14.3m sold through and 15.4m shipped for the calendar year 2014


but ur right. the sold through / shipped gap won't increase drasticly anymore. (it will increase some. at least, if the ps4 will sell more. if u sell more units on a weekly base, u need some more channel inventory so u don't run out of stock?
but more than 1.5 up to 2 million max (in the busy time) is not needed for that

still doesn't chance the fact, that reaching 20m sold through is 500k - 1m units harder than the same number shipped ;)
im not sure, if sony will countiue to give us sold through number, but if they do, ill expect the shipped number this year beining ~500k above the sold through number. 

p.s in 2015 sony hase one more market to supply with channel inventroy. CHINA! :D 
that could increase the sold through / sell in gap by 100k more 

Not sure if you agree with me or not. I agree with what you say.

People seem to think that when shipped figures come out for the year that they automatically have to take a certain percentage off to allow for products in the channels. By that logic if you keep taking, let's say, 1M off every year shipments then by year 5 there will be 5M Consoles in the channels. 

This is why I said that after initial shipment, shipped and sold through data should roughly be the same because it's the initial shipment that stocks the channels. 

Of course other factors might drastically change the gap between shipped and sold through like supply outstripping demand in one year so the following year will have more consoles shipped to fill channels again. In that situation shipped will be higher than sold through unless the console is supply restraint again for the year.

In sonys case, they never had big supply issues last year so this year shipments should be identical to sold through. China, like you say, might increase the shipments slightly over sold through but not 100k difference. China is a huge country but small console presence.