...

I gave any expectations of PS3 crossing 100 million a year or so ago. The system simply is not going to hit the price point it needs to get those kind of sales in secondary and tertiary markets.

So, in the "neither will happen" camp now.

Can't understand how people can think WiiU will not sell 25 mill..

There are still "missing" more than 200 mill from last gen.. not that i expect this gen to be as big.. but 100 mill more is sure..

Out of them lots is casual.. (and parents buy for kids) they look at the price.. (also online price.. also the price for new controllers) and lot of them like Nintendo games.. so would mean 15-20 mill more in the WiiU way..  is (imo) very low.

(and yes WiiU are behind GC sales.. but GC was at 99$ very fast)

"3. The converse is also true. If you believe Wii U will reach 25 million, then you must also believe the PS3 will reach Wii sales. This is unless you think PS3 sales will drop off heavily, which they shouldn't since the PS3 is still getting new releases and has room for another price-cut, or that Wii U sales will improve greatly while PS3 sales will remain the same. "

Why? ps3 is a declining old console, it hasn't maintained it's sales and will keep declining. one can bet on wii u reaching 25 million without thinking ps3 will reach wii numbers. 

It isn't enough for the PS3 to decline, the Wii U must incline. And unless a redesign rejuvenizes it, I can't see that happening. 

PS3 will achieve 90 million at best. WiiU will sell between 18 to 20 million.

How about this way? Wii U sales aren't related to ps3. If a person thinks wii u will sell x amount of units, this person doesn't have to think anything about ps3 sales. ps3 has been declining and will keep doing so, while wii u is up yoy.

I can't see the PS3 getting to Wiis figures, not a chance.

Assuming that VGChartz is reasonably close with their numbers, the the PS3 so far this year has sold 600,000 consoles (to 21st March). So you could assume that it might well sell another 2 million over the course of 2015.

So you could be looking at the PS3 being on 87.5 million end of 2015.

Beyond that date you can only see the PS3 sales diminishing at a quicker rate.

So lets say its 2 million for 2016, 1.5 million for 2017, 1 million for 2018. That leaves us at somewhere between 91-92 million. Will the PS3 even be manufactured at that point? Difficult to call but you'd imagine that the games by then will have totally dried up. So my guess it, PS4 will get to about 92.5 million before time is called.

As for the Wii U, it's got literally no chance of hitting 25 million. I'd say less chance that the PS3 hitting 100.

I'd be surprised if the Wii U made it to 20 to be honest all in all.

And Wii U will peak this year. Even being up YoY the Wii U has sold about as much to date as the PS3 in 2015 (if not a little less.) Considering how Wii U will also start declining in 2016, unless one believes it will decline at a slower rate than the PS3 (which has no historical precendence - Sony platforms have always had greater legs than Nintendo ones) then we can estimate that their lifetime sales from this point until the end will likely be close. 

With more and more of the market adopting the PS4, I can see the PS3 numbers trailing off over the course of the next 2 years. Once it's under 1m units a year Sony will pull the plug.

The Wii U will most likely hold steady at 3.5-4m for the next two years, so we're looking at 18m if nothing budges. At that point, Nintendo shouldn't have any problem shoveling off their remaining stock 1-2m at a $149 price point.

With the Wii U, however, I wouldn't underestimate the casual interest in the system that will translate into sales if Nintendo is able to reduce the cost (starting soon and continuing until its life-cycle is over). If it's $249 for the second half of 2015, and then cut to $199 before "Zelda" releases - it's hard to imagine that it wouldn't move more than its sedentary 3.5m annually.