By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Cognitive dissonance: Wii U won't reach 25 million, but PS3 will reach Wii lifetime.

I don't know if people still hold these beliefs, in tandem, but I do know people held them at one point. I want to explain why it should induce cognitive dissonance to hold these two beliefs. 

1. The Wii U and PS3 are both averaging about the same number of sales currently. According to vgchartz, up until the middle of March - the Wii U has sold 457,519. The PS3 has sold 497,512. Last year the Wii U sold 3,674,351 and the PS3 3,547,908. If they maintain similar sales, and live similar lifetimes, both of which are very reasonable assumptions, then they should sell about the same for the rest of their respective lifetimes.* 

2. By the bolded proposition, then if you believe the PS3 will sell 15.6 million to reach the Wii, then so shall the Wii U sell 15.6 million to reach 25 million lifetime sales, outselling the Gamecube. 

3. The converse is also true. If you believe Wii U will reach 25 million, then you must also believe the PS3 will reach Wii sales. This is unless you think PS3 sales will drop off heavily, which they shouldn't since the PS3 is still getting new releases and has room for another price-cut, or that Wii U sales will improve greatly while PS3 sales will remain the same. 

*The exception to this is if you believe the PS3 will exceed the sales of the Wii U or will outlive it. If you believe this, then please substantiate such a belief in this thread, if you want to. 

< In my opinion, neither of these things will happen. Wii U won't reach 25 million, and PS3 won't reach Wii sales.>



Around the Network

Neither will happen.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

I also agree that the Wii U won't reach 25M though I'm not so sure about PS3 beating the Wii...



NintenDomination [May 2015 - July 2017]
 

  - Official  VGChartz Tutorial Thread - 

NintenDomination [2015/05/19 - 2017/07/02]
 

          

 

 

Here lies the hidden threads. 

 | |

Nintendo Metascore | Official NintenDomination | VGC Tutorial Thread

| Best and Worst of Miiverse | Manga Discussion Thead |
[3DS] Winter Playtimes [Wii U]

Well the Wii U does have some big titles left to push sales.  I don't think any of the multiplats the PS3 is getting is gonna significantly affect sales and the only exclusive I can think of is Tales of Zestiria, which won't do much.



sc94597 said:

< In my opinion, neither of these things will happen. Wii U won't reach 25 million, and PS3 won't reach Wii sales.>

So are you saying they will both happen, or they will both not happen. You have too many negatives there to be sure what you mean.

There is only a certain small segment of the gamer community who believes PS3 will get to >100 million and Wii U won't make 25 million. This segment is not representative of the mainstream of any fanbase, they are just outliers of the PS fanbase.

For quite a while I thought the opposite. I thought PS3 would never make 100 million and I thought Wii U would probably reach 25 million. Now I think 25 million is highly unlikely for Wii U and 20 million is looking like a stretch goal for Wii U at this point, as sad as that sounds. My view on PS3's low chance of making 100 million have not changed.

Of course there's no cognitive disonnance if you genuinely believe that Wii U will go off the market before PS3. This has a non-zero possibility of happening. Which means PS3 may stay on the market long enough to achieve 100 million, but Wii U will exit the market very quickly when the next Nintendo generation comes along so it will lack inter-generational longevity to achieve 25 million even at a slow pace. The problem is PS3 will need to be on the market until the 9th gen for it to have a hope of reaching 100 million, which won't happen.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Around the Network
binary solo said:
sc94597 said:

< In my opinion, neither of these things will happen. Wii U won't reach 25 million, and PS3 won't reach Wii sales.>

So are you saying they will both happen, or they will both not happen. You have too many negatives there to be sure what you mean.

There is only a certain small segment of the gamer community who believes PS3 will get to >100 million and Wii U won't make 25 million. This segment is not representative of the mainstream of any fanbase, they are just outliers of the PS fanbase.

For quite a while I thought the opposite. I thought PS3 would never make 100 million and I thought Wii U would probably reach 25 million. Now I think 25 million is highly unlikely for Wii U and 20 million is looking like a stretch goal for Wii U at this point, as sad as that sounds. My view on PS3's low chance of making 100 million have not changed.

Of course there's no cognitive disonnance if you genuinely believe that Wii U will go off the market before PS3. This has a non-zero possibility of happening. Which means PS3 may stay on the market long enough to achieve 100 million, but Wii U will exit the market very quickly when the next Nintendo generation comes along so it will lack inter-generational longevity to achieve 25 million even at a slow pace. The problem is PS3 will need to be on the market until the 9th gen for it to have a hope of reaching 100 million, which won't happen.

I don't think the Wii U has a likely chance of reaching 25 million, and I don't think PS3 will reach Wii sales. 

I agree with the rest of your post. 



Ps3 certainly won't imo and I am losing hope for the wiiU for 25 million but we will see



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

Hopefully Wii U can reach at least 15 million. Dosen't look to promising though. :(



I feel like 20 million will be sort of decent if the Wii U can end at that.



If both stayed on the market long enough, both consoles could reach those numbers, but considering how the Wii U is doing, I don`t expect it to do past 20 mil. As for the PS3, it`s have to continue for several years longer before it reaches the Wii, which could happen, but seems unlikely.



 

              

Dance my pretties!

The Official Art Thread      -      The Official Manga Thread      -      The Official Starbound Thread