Ok Now for an analysis!!! The Great, The Avg, and of course The Bad! Anywayzzz lets begin! With info 1st...

*** Notes***

~3DS in US sold 2.57mil in 2014. It was at 1.25mil before the holidays (Jan-Oct) With Nov/Dec being 515k/810k (1.33mil)

~3DS 2014 avg 117k per month from Apr-Oct

~3DS is currently around 732k sold with its first 3 months. 

~It would need an avg of 74k per month to be flat YoY 2014 before holidays atm (selling 517k more 3ds's)

~3DS in 2014 reached 762k by end of June. 870k by end of July. If 3DS can manage 148k for April, it be a tie 2015 4months vs 2014 7months!!

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Okay analysis time!!! 5 Scenarios for April-Oct and 3 scenarios for holidays!!! Then combinations at bottom, pls understand...

*** Months April-October *** (2014 did avg of 117k same period)

   Scenarios                  Averages      Total in 7months    Including Jan-Mar

1. Worse Case           75k per month        525k                     1257k

2. Pessimistic Case    95k per month       665k                      1397k

3. Normal Case        115k per month       805k                      1537k

4. Good Case           135k per month       945k                      1677k

5. Crazy Case          160k per month      1120k                      1852k

*** Holidays (Nov/Dec) *** 2014: 1325k (Nov=515k + Dec=810k)

     Scenarios      Nov  ~   Dec   ~ Total                

A) Worst Case   250k     400k     650k

B) Okay Case    400k     600k    1000k

C) Good Case   500k     750k    1250k

D) Wow Case    600k     900k    1500k

Though 1.9mil is the worst case scenario and by far unlikely one, 3ds can pull up to 3.4mil if everything is doing well, but i think we can expect a 2.3mil-2.8mil year!

I think it will be within 10% up or down YOY.

3DS will be up YOY even in the worst scenario in the US. no way for sell 74,000 all NPD from October.

And let me said the BEST scenario.

Apr: 180,000
May: 150,000
Jun: 200,000
Jul: 170,000
Aug: 150,000
Sep: 250,000
Oct: 250,000
Nov: 750,000
Dec: 1,500,000

TOT: 4,332,000.

Yes, 3DS can sell more than in 2011. probabily not, but can happen.

That's not even close to realistic, what would possibly cause it to sell 2.5 million in the last quarter alone?

It's hard to predict the second half of the year since we literally have no idea what is releasing.

"That's not even close to realistic" source?

Seriusly, this numbers are more realistic than 2,500,000.

2,500,000 last year and is up so far by +80%, so, if the trend will continued, it will sell 4,500,000 this year.

Of course no way for happen, and this numbers (4,332,000) are just what  can be the best scenario.

My 3DS prediction is 3,000,000 to 3,500,000 this year.

My source is common sense, yes it's currently up 80% due to the initial rush of the revision but that 80% will not continue into the Summer/Fall, that's not optimism, that's just plain nonsense.

April+May should still have some New 3DS momentum along with titles like Xenoblade 3D & PDZ+Mario causing it to remain up YOY, something like 160k & 110k, putting it about 1 million thru May.

From that point it gets a bit trickier to predict since we have no idea what is scheduled from June-Dec and the New 3DS momentum will have worn off so it largely depends on what games are released in the Summer/Fall/Holiday or if they decide to release the smaller sku or do a price cut.

If everything goes right, ur 3+ million prediction could come true but 4+ million isn't realistic.