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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales -Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki week 14 2015 (March 30 - April 5, 2015)

Materia-Blade said:
outlawauron said:

What reason do you have to believe that Xenoblade will provide a lasting boost? It's a RPG, so it'll have very little legs.

You can't tell how big or small xenoblade's legs will be. But it is a highly anticipated title and has a bundle, meaning the current wii u sales are suffering because of it. Besides, splatoon (and yoshi, I think) will release soon after it, so there won't be a drought for at least some months = much bigger baseline than binary is expecting. Also, hoping for a 16k baseline for ps4 may be too much.

Wii U sales have been suffering since mid January because of the XCX bundle which comes out at the end of this month? Xenoblade on Wii sold ~160K, even if XCX doubles that that level of sales does not sustain a significantly elevated baseline very long.

Nintendo fans are putting too much stock in Splatoon. It may have the effect you want, but new IP rarely does that sort of thing. I've no idea what Yoshi will do.

As for PS4, so far this year it hasn't spent much time below 16K so after the recent software releases it's a reasonable level of sales to anticipate.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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Hiku said:
Materia-Blade said:

And as it was already said, Xenoblade chronicles didn't sell poorly and Xeno X has everything to easily outsell the first game.

What points towards XCX easily outselling the original Xenoblade?
Wii had 10.5 million units sold in Japan at the time of Xenoblade Chronicle's release, and Wii U only has 2.2m sold in Japan now in comparison.
That's around 5 times the difference in install base. So what is your reasoning behind XCX easily outselling the original?

As for Xenoblade Chronicles X's impact on the sales of the console, the original Xenoblade sold 82,952 copies at launch, and went on to sell around 180,00 lifetime in Japan. Taking the big install base differnce into consideration, and the fact that WiiU is already selling rather poorly, I'm not expecting any miracles here. It'll certainly spark some interest, but this is just one game. And that's WiiU's main problem.

Actual marketing, awareness of the franchise, XC 3d opening close to the original, XCX being ahead of the original and the 3d version on COMG pre orders, bundle... Installed based isn't that important in this case, just look at XC 3d.



Did Bloodborne have stock problems? I think I remember Tsutaya saying there were.



binary solo said:
Materia-Blade said:

You can't tell how big or small xenoblade's legs will be. But it is a highly anticipated title and has a bundle, meaning the current wii u sales are suffering because of it. Besides, splatoon (and yoshi, I think) will release soon after it, so there won't be a drought for at least some months = much bigger baseline than binary is expecting. Also, hoping for a 16k baseline for ps4 may be too much.

Wii U sales have been suffering since mid January because of the XCX bundle which comes out at the end of this month? Xenoblade on Wii sold ~160K, even if XCX doubles that that level of sales does not sustain a significantly elevated baseline very long.

Nintendo fans are putting too much stock in Splatoon. It may have the effect you want, but new IP rarely does that sort of thing. I've no idea what Yoshi will do.

As for PS4, so far this year it hasn't spent much time below 16K so after the recent software releases it's a reasonable level of sales to anticipate.

Wii U is selling low because of lack of releases, but the xenoblade bundle is also hurting it. It will probably sell much more than you think but it doesn't have to sustain sales on it's own. As I said, there are other releases soon after it.

Ps4 hasn't spent much time below 16k because it had lot's of releases recently and had the DQ heroes anticipation. We have to wait untill it stabilizes.



Materia-Blade said:
Hiku said:
Materia-Blade said:

And as it was already said, Xenoblade chronicles didn't sell poorly and Xeno X has everything to easily outsell the first game.

What points towards XCX easily outselling the original Xenoblade?
Wii had 10.5 million units sold in Japan at the time of Xenoblade Chronicle's release, and Wii U only has 2.2m sold in Japan now in comparison.
That's around 5 times the difference in install base. So what is your reasoning behind XCX easily outselling the original?

As for Xenoblade Chronicles X's impact on the sales of the console, the original Xenoblade sold 82,952 copies at launch, and went on to sell around 180,00 lifetime in Japan. Taking the big install base differnce into consideration, and the fact that WiiU is already selling rather poorly, I'm not expecting any miracles here. It'll certainly spark some interest, but this is just one game. And that's WiiU's main problem.

Actual marketing, awareness of the franchise, XC 3d opening close to the original, XCX being ahead of the original and the 3d version on COMG pre orders, bundle... Installed based isn't that important in this case, just look at XC 3d.

You expect pre-orders and buzz to be greater for any sequel to a game that is generally regarded as a good / great game. That does not automatically translate into massive growth. Examples, the Souls series games are widely regarded as being very good games, yet the only substantial growth in sales came because the series went multiplat. On PS3 the growth between Demon's Souls and Dark Souls was quite modest, and apparently sales decreased in the USA (perhaps because double console owners chose to get the 360 version).

Uncharted 2 was much hyped and anticipated and won more GOTY's than any game before it. The growth between Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 2 was only about 50%.

Can Xenoblade turn from a <200K first game to a >500K second game and become a genuine system selling franchise for Wii U in Japan? Yes it can. Does it deserve to experience that sort of growth? Probably, yes. Will it? That is unknown and far from certain, probably not even the most likely outcome. And people shouldn't count on it being like that until it actually happens.

My impression of the general Nintendo gamer base (which is not represented here or most other forums where the fans do get very excited about the less well known franchises) is that they tend to not like playing outside of the long established franchises.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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Bofferbrauer said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
Holy fuck BloodBorne, A FUCKING 85% DROPPED!!!!!!!

This is something I noticed for a while now, PS4 games seem to have practically no legs at all and drop like a rock the week after their release. 85% is still an extreme case, but I'm already expecting drops of ~75 - 80% on PS4 games right now


The game apparently sold through over 87% of the stock in just the first week. Doing amazing as far as I can tell.



binary solo said:

You expect pre-orders and buzz to be greater for any sequel to a game that is generally regarded as a good / great game. That does not automatically translate into massive growth. Examples, the Souls series games are widely regarded as being very good games, yet the only substantial growth in sales came because the series went multiplat. On PS3 the growth between Demon's Souls and Dark Souls was quite modest, and apparently sales decreased in the USA (perhaps because double console owners chose to get the 360 version).

Uncharted 2 was much hyped and anticipated and won more GOTY's than any game before it. The growth between Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 2 was only about 50%.

Can Xenoblade turn from a <200K first game to a >500K second game and become a genuine system selling franchise for Wii U in Japan? Yes it can. Does it deserve to experience that sort of growth? Probably, yes. Will it? That is unknown and far from certain, probably not even the most likely outcome. And people shouldn't count on it being like that until it actually happens.

My impression of the general Nintendo gamer base (which is not represented here or most other forums where the fans do get very excited about the less well known franchises) is that they tend to not like playing outside of the long established franchises.

You are comparing it with games that had a smaller room to grow. the first xenoblade lacked timing and advertising, both of wich are present on Xenoblade X.

"My impression of the general Nintendo gamer base (which is not represented here or most other forums where the fans do get very excited about the less well known franchises) is that they tend to not like playing outside of the long established franchises."

Your impression is very wrong, since nintendo gamers care about games, regardless of being an established franchise or not.



Hiku said:
Materia-Blade said:
Hiku said:

What points towards XCX easily outselling the original Xenoblade?
Wii had 10.5 million units sold in Japan at the time of Xenoblade Chronicle's release, and Wii U only has 2.2m sold in Japan now in comparison.
That's around 5 times the difference in install base. So what is your reasoning behind XCX easily outselling the original?

As for Xenoblade Chronicles X's impact on the sales of the console, the original Xenoblade sold 82,952 copies at launch, and went on to sell around 180,00 lifetime in Japan. Taking the big install base differnce into consideration, and the fact that WiiU is already selling rather poorly, I'm not expecting any miracles here. It'll certainly spark some interest, but this is just one game. And that's WiiU's main problem.

Actual marketing, awareness of the franchise, XC 3d opening close to the original, XCX being ahead of the original and the 3d version on COMG pre orders, bundle... Installed based isn't that important in this case, just look at XC 3d.

Well the thing about XC 3D is that it's the only exclusive on the console, so it's hardly surprising that a good amount of people who bought that console, did it with the intention of getting that game.
But if you think XCX will easily outsell the original, what kind of opening week numbers are you expecting for it in Japan? And how much by the end of the year?

I'm expecting at least 150k opening week. If it can get over 300-400k by the end of the year, it would be amazing. This is japan only, obviously.



Materia-Blade said:
binary solo said:

You expect pre-orders and buzz to be greater for any sequel to a game that is generally regarded as a good / great game. That does not automatically translate into massive growth. Examples, the Souls series games are widely regarded as being very good games, yet the only substantial growth in sales came because the series went multiplat. On PS3 the growth between Demon's Souls and Dark Souls was quite modest, and apparently sales decreased in the USA (perhaps because double console owners chose to get the 360 version).

Uncharted 2 was much hyped and anticipated and won more GOTY's than any game before it. The growth between Uncharted 1 and Uncharted 2 was only about 50%.

Can Xenoblade turn from a <200K first game to a >500K second game and become a genuine system selling franchise for Wii U in Japan? Yes it can. Does it deserve to experience that sort of growth? Probably, yes. Will it? That is unknown and far from certain, probably not even the most likely outcome. And people shouldn't count on it being like that until it actually happens.

My impression of the general Nintendo gamer base (which is not represented here or most other forums where the fans do get very excited about the less well known franchises) is that they tend to not like playing outside of the long established franchises.

You are comparing it with games that had a smaller room to grow. the first xenoblade lacked timing and advertising, both of wich are present on Xenoblade X.

"My impression of the general Nintendo gamer base (which is not represented here or most other forums where the fans do get very excited about the less well known franchises) is that they tend to not like playing outside of the long established franchises."

Your impression is very wrong, since nintendo gamers care about games, regardless of being an established franchise or not.

That does not appear to be well reflected in the top selling games on Nintendo home consoles in the last few generations. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

A shame to see the ps4 numbers dropping that much but I guess it was expected, I hope the new baseline is at least higher than 15k