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Forums - Sales Discussion - Dont be shocked if PS4 crosses 50 million mark by September 2016

 

Your reaction?

Shark, are you high? 87 18.55%
 
Calm down bro. 93 19.83%
 
Its possible. 224 47.76%
 
Are you from future? 25 5.33%
 
Its Obamas fault. 40 8.53%
 
Total:469

I would be shocked to be honest but I wouldn't say its impossible. We still don't know whether pS3/360 are getting COD/AC this year. Something as simple as that could really shift sales. Fifa aswell but I'm pretty sure EA supported the PS2 til like 2010 lol



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the-pi-guy said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:

You know, when it is the PS4 that is getting the sales while offering nothing but remasters and let downs, that is toxic. I wish people would wake up and get off the hype train. There is nothing to be hyped about. Believe me, if PS4 had something to offer then I would be sitting here saying it deserves 50 million. But I dont think it deserves it for what it has been offering consumers since it released and I therefore hope it does not reach what the OP is predicting. Excuse me for having my own opinion. 

The biggest sellers are XB that are exclusive are Halo, Gears, Forza, and Fable.  

Xbox One has Titanfall, MCC, Forza 5, Horizon 2, Dead Rising 3, Ryse, Sunset Overdrive.

Titanfall is a new IP, sold pretty well, but was also on 2 other platforms.  MCC is a Halo game, but its not a new one, so not as much sale potential.  Forza isn't that big of a franchise, Dead Rising 3 is not insanely popular, Ryse is a new IP that didn't deliver, and Sunset Overdrive is a new IP.  So in terms of sales potential, that's probably 10-15 million, counting each individually, but most people buy more than one game.  So, lower than that then.  A realistic number is probably like 5-10 million if that, then the rest of it comes from third parties.  
PS4 has The Last of Us, Killzone, Infamous, DriveClub, Knack, LittleBigPlanet, Bloodborne, The Order.
The Last of Us is a new IP, sold pretty well, but is on 1 other platform.  Killzone, Infamous are in the same boat as Forza, big but not that big.  LittleBigPlanet goes back and forth, it's been huge, and not so huge.  Knack and The Order didn't deliver, and DriveClub had a rough launch.  Bloodborne might be somewhat big. Overall sales potential, is probably pretty similar to the Xbox One.  

So why is the PS4 selling so well?  Does the PS4 have nothing to offer?  It has lots to offer.  

I hear lots of people complaining about the fact that the PS4 is selling so well despite the fact that there are no AAA exclusives.  Here's the reality of that, most people don't buy a console for exclusives.  

Best selling games on 360/PS3 - GTA/CoD, Those two franchises make up more than half of the top 10 best sellers.  

The best place originally to play those games was the PS4 this gen.  

Because it was 100$ cheaper and were the best place to play too, and the hype meant your friends were buying the same console too.  And people want to play with their friends. For the majority of gamers, the console your friend has and the one that has CoD is the one you want.  
Multiplatform games and friends are what mostly sell a console.  

im sorry you took all the time to type that out. i tried reading it, but its hard because i could give a crap less about microsoft or the x1. i mean, to me, they are the same console so i dont see what this big war is about. they each have a handful of exclusives, but that is the only thing that differentiates them. this ps4/x1 war is completely ridiculous. 



Logically sales usually increase in the 2nd and 3rd years compared to the 1st, those people saying no to PS4 reaching 50M by September 2016 aren't really basing their guesses on any real figures with their comments.

The 1st 13 months of sales PS4 sold 18.5M units, that's an average of about 1.42M a month, over 34 months (November 2013 to September 2016) that would amount to 48.28M units, assuming no rise in demand, just the same sales pace as those early months of sales.
The level of games in the 1st 13 months is much weaker than in the 2nd 13 months or beyond that.

In the least I think a 20% increase is a minimum to expect, which would mean the monthly average going up to 1.704, so 35.784M units sold in 21 months before September 2016, add that to the 18.5M units sold in the 1st 13 months and PS4 will hit 54.28M units by September.

IMO 50M is possible by E3 next year.
PS4 will probably have sold around 38.5 million units by the end of this year, which would leave 11.5M over the 9 months of 2016.

Between the beginning of this year and September 2016 we'll have 1)The Order 1886, 2)Bloodborne, 3)Until Dawn, 4)Tearaway Unfolded, 5)Fat Princess Adventures, 6)Ratchet & Clank, 7)Disgaea 5, 8)Let it Die, 9)Deep Down, 10)Kill Strain, 11)Drawn to Death, 12)WiLD, 13)Rime, 14)Alienation, 15)Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, 16)The Tomorrow Children, 17)Shadow of the Beast and that's just what we know about for 2015.

There's also GT7, Uncharted 4, a new God of War and Without Memory.
GT7 could very well release this year.

More games are definitely going to be announced to release between now and September 2016 than we've already been told about.
Anyone that says there's no reason for PS4 to sell 50M units by even E3 next year really isn't being realistic, because we've had over 20 games, that we know about that will all probably release by then, by September 2016 PS4 will be well on it's way to 55M, it may have even surpassed that goal by the time the Fall of 2016 rolls around.

Baring in mind that Project Morpheus and more than one price cut could have happened by then even 60M is entirely feasible.

Sales so far have been the result of the supposedly weak exclusive line-up, multiplats, the strong Playstation name, good marketing, value for money, indies and the future promise of quality exclusives that Sony always delivers on, not to forget quality hardware.
The promise of games is already being fulfilled with the likes of Bloodborne, Tearaway Unfolded & Ratchet & Clank on the way this year, along with the other exclusives I mentioned above, the value will be strengthened when the price cuts are announced, along with new bundles.
Multiplats will likely be the games that sell most systems and those games coming this year look much better than the ones that released in 2014 and 2013.

A vast sales increase beyond my conservative estimates seems more likely than a decline in sales as the naysayers believe will happen.



It'll cross 50 mil before that. imo



The sales and the world dominance are showing this exact signs, i believe it can achieve that numbers.



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Turkish said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:

You know, when it is the PS4 that is getting the sales while offering nothing but remasters and let downs, that is toxic. I wish people would wake up and get off the hype train. There is nothing to be hyped about. Believe me, if PS4 had something to offer then I would be sitting here saying it deserves 50 million. But I dont think it deserves it for what it has been offering consumers since it released and I therefore hope it does not reach what the OP is predicting. Excuse me for having my own opinion. 

What the hell are you talking about dude? There's inFamous, Resogun, Driveclub, Killzone, lots o other games like Dragon Age.

Not to mention the highest rated exclusive game of the 8th gen and likely GOTY 2015: BLOODBORNE.

You are so salty and I'm glad PS4 is dominating the industry so people like you get more mad.

Moderated,

-Mr Khan

If you ignore Super Mario 3D World lol.



Yeah, that's very likely. I made some projections awhile ago that pretty much agree with your thesis.

Imnus said:

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

PS4
Launch (2013)
Year 1 (2014) Year 2 (2015) Year 3 (2016)  Year 4 (2017) Year 5 (2018) Year 6 (2019) Year 7 (2020) Year 8 (2021) Year 9 (2022) Year 10 (2023)
YTD 4M 14M 17M 21M 20M 17M 15M 12M 8M 7M 5M
LTD 4M 18M 35M 56M 76M 93M 108M 120M 128M 135M 140M

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M



thismeintiel said:
slab_of_bacon said:
thismeintiel said:

slab_of_bacon said:

Sony is winning the 8th gen, handedly.  Console gaming is alive and well!

Fixed that for you.


No hate... I'm just telling you how I see it.  I'm not sure how you define "winning" but I think each company's console has got something going for it.  Sony is definitely moving a lot more home console hardware than anyone else.  However I don't see them reaching fifty million by next September.  

No hate, huh?  So I guess the PS1 and PS2 gens were complete duds, too?  And people were just clinging to those systems as a life raft?  Sure...


 

Perhaps you would prefer the term oasis.  



Feel free to check out my stream on twitch 

PotentHerbs said:
oniyide said:
If PS4 doesnt "deserve it" then what console does? Xone, the one htat was 100 dollars more with a Kinect attached that most people didnt care about? Not to mention the DRM crap they tried to pull? Or WiiU with ports of games that most people probably had or will get on a system that had already had for years? With tech that isnt that much better than PS360? Just curious.


Exactly just imagine if MS had their way with DRM, online check - ins (LOL), no used games, mandatory Kinect (woohoo Kinect Adventures 2!), etc. WiiU is a great secondary console but can never appease me as a primary console.


people either or ignoring or just flat out hating. Im not going to paing PS4 as some Jesus console, but the reaily is Sony is really the ONLY one that didnt mess up thats why they are in the lead.



slab_of_bacon said:
thismeintiel said:
slab_of_bacon said:


No hate... I'm just telling you how I see it.  I'm not sure how you define "winning" but I think each company's console has got something going for it.  Sony is definitely moving a lot more home console hardware than anyone else.  However I don't see them reaching fifty million by next September.  

No hate, huh?  So I guess the PS1 and PS2 gens were complete duds, too?  And people were just clinging to those systems as a life raft?  Sure...


 

Perhaps you would prefer the term oasis.  

Maybe if that oasis is ~60% or more of the desert.  Though, I don't think it's a desert at that point.  Could be wrong.  Of course, the rest of the gaming market is hardly a desert.  It has a few trees and spots of grass here and there.