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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Zelda U delayed until 2016, will not be at E3

curl-6 on 29 March 2015
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Last gen, DS and PSP sold about 230 million units combined.

This gen, 3DS and Vita will be lucky to hit 90 million combined. 

That's about a 60% decline from one gen to another, it's nothing short of catastrophic.


Your not making any sense, i said this as well. We all know this. We are talking about transition from gen 8 to gen 9, not gen 7 to gen 8.

You pointing out that 60%+ decline is already calculated with What HHs got hit with (smartphones/tablets/etc).

So in other words im correct, HHs have a future. If It were suppose to have no future, we would have already seen it. 

Seems to me we have seen it; there's no sign this decline is going to stop moving forwards; Sony are unlikely to even make another portable, and if Nintendo do, I'm sure it will sell less than 3DS, meaning we will see another heavy decline from this gen to next.



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tbone51 on 29 March 2015
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:


Your not making any sense, i said this as well. We all know this. We are talking about transition from gen 8 to gen 9, not gen 7 to gen 8.

You pointing out that 60%+ decline is already calculated with What HHs got hit with (smartphones/tablets/etc).

So in other words im correct, HHs have a future. If It were suppose to have no future, we would have already seen it. 

Seems to me we have seen it; there's no sign this decline is going to stop moving forwards; Sony are unlikely to even make another portable, and if Nintendo do, I'm sure it will sell less than 3DS, meaning we will see another heavy decline from this gen to next.


Depends on what is heavy to you. If 3DS sells 65mil-70mil lifetime and the next HH sells arund 50mil, i wouldn't call that a huge decline, especially if SW sales are still healthy, btw they are with 3ds despite a 1/3rd lower user base than the DS



curl-6 on 29 March 2015
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Seems to me we have seen it; there's no sign this decline is going to stop moving forwards; Sony are unlikely to even make another portable, and if Nintendo do, I'm sure it will sell less than 3DS, meaning we will see another heavy decline from this gen to next.

Depends on what is heavy to you. If 3DS sells 65mil-70mil lifetime and the next HH sells arund 50mil, i wouldn't call that a huge decline, especially if SW sales are still healthy, btw they are with 3ds despite a 1/3rd lower user base than the DS

I doubt a next gen dedicated portable can reach 50 million personally. It's possible, but a long shot.

As for Sony, they've been blackballed, I'll be stunned if Vita even gets a followup, since they've abandoned it already.



tbone51 on 29 March 2015
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

Depends on what is heavy to you. If 3DS sells 65mil-70mil lifetime and the next HH sells arund 50mil, i wouldn't call that a huge decline, especially if SW sales are still healthy, btw they are with 3ds despite a 1/3rd lower user base than the DS

I doubt a next gen dedicated portable can reach 50 million personally. It's possible, but a long shot.

As for Sony, they've been blackballed, I'll be stunned if Vita even gets a followup, since they've abandoned it already.


So hypothetically if vita sells 16mil lifetime and a successor comes out and sells 25mil, then that would mean HH gaming is saved right? (up over 50%!)

But seriously though i think next successor will not sell less than 35mil, if of course its a traditional HH



curl-6 on 29 March 2015
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

I doubt a next gen dedicated portable can reach 50 million personally. It's possible, but a long shot.

As for Sony, they've been blackballed, I'll be stunned if Vita even gets a followup, since they've abandoned it already.


So hypothetically if vita sells 16mil lifetime and a successor comes out and sells 25mil, then that would mean HH gaming is saved right? (up over 50%!)

But seriously though i think next successor will not sell less than 35mil, if of course its a traditional HH

An upwards trend would suggest a prevailing interest in handheld gaming, yes. I'm certain however that the decline will continue. Next gen will see even fewer handhelds sold than this gen, and by considerable amount. It will become niche, then irrelevant.



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Samus Aran on 29 March 2015
oniyide said:
Samus Aran said:

Consoles are dying too then because xbone and Wii U won't reach anywhere near their numbers of last gen.

I fail to see how Sony's HH decline has anything to do with Nintendo. Nintendo will get out of the home console market long before the HH market.

because they are both HHs adn that is what we are talking about and even then the 3ds is still a massive drop from DS. 

And please, pretty sure PS4 could get up to 80mil which will put it in the PS3 range.

PS4 could sell 150M and the home console market would still be in decline compared to last gen.

80M + 80M +100M = 260M

150M + 60M + 15M = 225M

And I'm being very generous with the predictions here.

Vita's failure is unrelated to the 3DS.



Samus Aran on 29 March 2015
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:


So hypothetically if vita sells 16mil lifetime and a successor comes out and sells 25mil, then that would mean HH gaming is saved right? (up over 50%!)

But seriously though i think next successor will not sell less than 35mil, if of course its a traditional HH

An upwards trend would suggest a prevailing interest in handheld gaming, yes. I'm certain however that the decline will continue. Next gen will see even fewer handhelds sold than this gen, and by considerable amount. It will become niche, then irrelevant.

You know why the 3DS "failed"? There's multiple reasons and one of them is the growing smartphone market.

That however is not the only reason and if Nintendo learns from the other reasons their next HH could sell better than the 3DS. Question, which HH was the most expensive one Nintendo ever released? Another question, which Nintendo hanùdheld had the worst launch games?

Besides, why just look at Nintendo's most succesful HH ever? There's also the GB and GBA which were both very profitable to Nintendo.



oniyide on 29 March 2015
tbone51 said:
oniyide said:

software doesnt really mean much when we are talking HW decline so im not even sure why you brought it up as it doesnt really prove anything. Funny enough you ignored the software that actually too a HIT this gen, Your Nintendogs, Cooking Mamas, NSMB2s

None of those games you listed really are not that much different except for Fire Emblem and that is doing well because Ninty actually had to foresight to advertise the damn game and have enough copies. These sales of the Software tell me that they are not getting better for the most part, so i dont see the HH getting much better. Next HH will take it hit, it might be a big one or it might not be. So what if Pokemon does 12mil plus? If it sells 1-1 with the HW that is 12mil systems sold. Thats not good.


Actually SW does matter. Look at Vita, not selling any HW but SW is keeping it afloat (at least in japan). We are talking about 1decline that many people like you uee to justify HHs have no future. GB to GBA had a decline... so what? The decline here was because of Smartphones/tablets etc. Do you think another 60%+ decline will happen next gen?

Also lol, i didn't ignore shit. I was coming up with some games off the top of my head. See here i listed 2D Mario's http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=200456&page=1

Yes these software sales from a 155mil userbase to a 50mil userbase is damn well impressive. Look at pokemon. BW sold 15.4mil, XY is close to that. MK7 sold 11mil+ on a HH with 50mil userbase.

I dont think you understand how well alot of games did with this huge HW decline


I think it will be at least a 30% decline which will be alot. Sony not making another HH insures that there WILL be a decline. Unless you think those players will be absorbed into the NInty HH and i dont think so much will be. and I dont seen the next portable doing as well as 3ds. 

I just find it odd that you missed the games that had a decline. 

They did what anyone would expect them to do. THere are some games that have a ceiling and are going to do well no matter the HW becasue they have there dedicated fans. Im not impressed by those numbers becasue it would have sold that well anyway becasue people primarily buy Ninty HHs for those games. But what about the people who DONT care for those games. Why would they buy it? they wouldnt and eventually less and less of them will buy it. Im not saying it will crash next gen but it will be a slow decline into irrelelvance, especially in the west.



Samus Aran on 29 March 2015
oniyide said:
tbone51 said:


Actually SW does matter. Look at Vita, not selling any HW but SW is keeping it afloat (at least in japan). We are talking about 1decline that many people like you uee to justify HHs have no future. GB to GBA had a decline... so what? The decline here was because of Smartphones/tablets etc. Do you think another 60%+ decline will happen next gen?

Also lol, i didn't ignore shit. I was coming up with some games off the top of my head. See here i listed 2D Mario's http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=200456&page=1

Yes these software sales from a 155mil userbase to a 50mil userbase is damn well impressive. Look at pokemon. BW sold 15.4mil, XY is close to that. MK7 sold 11mil+ on a HH with 50mil userbase.

I dont think you understand how well alot of games did with this huge HW decline


I think it will be at least a 30% decline which will be alot. Sony not making another HH insures that there WILL be a decline. Unless you think those players will be absorbed into the NInty HH and i dont think so much will be. and I dont seen the next portable doing as well as 3ds. 

I just find it odd that you missed the games that had a decline. 

They did what anyone would expect them to do. THere are some games that have a ceiling and are going to do well no matter the HW becasue they have there dedicated fans. Im not impressed by those numbers becasue it would have sold that well anyway becasue people primarily buy Ninty HHs for those games. But what about the people who DONT care for those games. Why would they buy it? they wouldnt and eventually less and less of them will buy it. Im not saying it will crash next gen but it will be a slow decline into irrelelvance, especially in the west.

You do realize that Sony not making another HH will be good news for Nintendo right? Even if that would lead to a TOTAL decline, it would lead to an INCREASE for Nintendo, especially in Japan.



oniyide on 29 March 2015
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:


So hypothetically if vita sells 16mil lifetime and a successor comes out and sells 25mil, then that would mean HH gaming is saved right? (up over 50%!)

But seriously though i think next successor will not sell less than 35mil, if of course its a traditional HH

An upwards trend would suggest a prevailing interest in handheld gaming, yes. I'm certain however that the decline will continue. Next gen will see even fewer handhelds sold than this gen, and by considerable amount. It will become niche, then irrelevant.


this! all we've been saying is that HH are declining. Its like some people are in denial, nobody with a shred of common sense believe SOny is going to do a follow up to Vita. So thats a hit right there. I would love to know what people think Ninty will do to prevent the decline of HHs, what secret sauce could they have.