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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction - Halo 5 will sell more in 2015 than Uncharted 4 lifetime

Mummelmann on 26 March 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
Do some of you expect the X1 to sell 0 units from now until Halo 5's release? And 0 after it releases?


Can't speak for anyone else, but I personally see the One having an installed base around what the PS4 is showing now on the front page by the end of 2015, with quite bit less in september, which is when Halo 5 could launch, should it launch later, the installed base will be bigger but there are fewer weeks to sell, either removing the advantage or even causing a major disadvantage overall.

Halo 5 will likely need to sell 6 million as a bare minimum, likely 7 million or more to beat UC4's lifetime figure. Even Destiny has managed over 4.5 million on the PS4 with a fairly small installed base and being a shared release, a new, untested IP as well as being developed by a crew with no history on PS platforms at all. UC is an established franchise now and ND have an amazing reputation among gamers.

The odds of this prediction coming true are very bleak at best, going by all logic and available data. I wouldn't even be surprised in the slightest if Halo 5 sold less lifetime total than UC4.



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Angelv577 on 26 March 2015

how much did Halo 3 sell in its first year? I'm asking this because both are the first entry on their respective console and also have comparable userbase.



Roronaa_chan on 26 March 2015
theprof00 said:
Roronaa_chan said:
Do some of you expect the X1 to sell 0 units from now until Halo 5's release? And 0 after it releases?

Regardless of the number I quoted, it's going to have to have a seriously high attach rate. 40%+

The point is, no game sells like that. Even the GTA, Halo, and CoD games. Generally, attach is install base times ~.2

If xb1 hit 20 million this year, that would only be 5m and that's IF it hit 20m.

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.



Jaywood2010 on 26 March 2015
Angelv577 said:
how much did Halo 3 sell in its first year? I'm asking this because both are the first entry on their respective console and also have comparable userbase.


6.8m




       

theprof00 on 26 March 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
theprof00 said:
Roronaa_chan said:
Do some of you expect the X1 to sell 0 units from now until Halo 5's release? And 0 after it releases?

Regardless of the number I quoted, it's going to have to have a seriously high attach rate. 40%+

The point is, no game sells like that. Even the GTA, Halo, and CoD games. Generally, attach is install base times ~.2

If xb1 hit 20 million this year, that would only be 5m and that's IF it hit 20m.

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.

Uncharted? It won't even outsell mgs5



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TheBlackNaruto on 26 March 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
theprof00 said:

Regardless of the number I quoted, it's going to have to have a seriously high attach rate. 40%+

The point is, no game sells like that. Even the GTA, Halo, and CoD games. Generally, attach is install base times ~.2

If xb1 hit 20 million this year, that would only be 5m and that's IF it hit 20m.

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.

So what are you thinking UC4 will sell LTD? Isn't UC3 over 6mil rightnow? So you expect UC4 to sell less than 3?



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Angelv577 on 26 March 2015
JayWood2010 said:
Angelv577 said:
how much did Halo 3 sell in its first year? I'm asking this because both are the first entry on their respective console and also have comparable userbase.


6.8m

Well, it should do it easily if there's no decline in the franchise this gen.  As halo 3 proved, it doesn't matter how much xbox one sells, the Halo fans will be there.  Anyhow, as long as uncharted 4 reach at least 5 million, Sony, naughty dog and their fans will be happy.



Roronaa_chan on 26 March 2015
theprof00 said:
Roronaa_chan said:

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.

Uncharted? It won't even outsell mgs5

What do you mean even? MGS5 will outsell U4. So even if MGS5 > Halo 5, Halo 5 still > U4.

@TheBlackNaruto I'd say 5M

Uncharted 4 will suffer because:

  • It comes out after ROTR, leaving less room for impressing people.
  • It won't live up to TLOU; it can't.
  • It doesn't launch during an holiday period, unlike the previous games, rendering direct number comparisons inaccurate, and also causing lost sales, because not all purchases that'd have been made in 2015 will simply "move up" to 2016; a portion will just disappear and never happen.
  • It's supposed to launch in the same timeframe as SF5 and Horizon


theprof00 on 26 March 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
theprof00 said:
Roronaa_chan said:
 

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.

Uncharted? It won't even outsell mgs5

What do you mean even? MGS5 will outsell U4. So even if MGS5 > Halo 5, Halo 5 still > U4.

@TheBlackNaruto I'd say 5M

Uncharted 4 will suffer because:

  • It comes out after ROTR, leaving less room for impressing people.
  • It won't live up to TLOU; it can't.
  • It doesn't launch during an holiday period, unlike the previous games, rendering direct number comparisons inaccurate, and also causing lost sales, because not all purchases that'd have been made in 2015 will simply "move up" to 2016; a portion will just disappear and never happen.
  • It's supposed to launch in the same timeframe as SF5 and Horizon
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty PS2 2001 Action Konami Digital Entertainment 2.45 2.01 0.87 0.72 6.05
2 Metal Gear Solid PS 1998 Action Konami Digital Entertainment 3.18 1.83 0.78 0.24 6.03
3 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots PS3 2008 Action Konami Digital Entertainment 2.61 1.69 0.83 0.82 5.95
4 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater PS2 2004 Action Konami Digital Entertainment 1.46 0.00 0.83 1.93 4.23
1 Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception PS3 2011 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 2.70 2.70 0.19 1.05 6.64
2 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves PS3 2009 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 3.22 2.16 0.21 0.98 6.57
3 Uncharted: Drake's Fortune PS3 2007 Action Sony Computer Entertainment 2.24 1.71 0.12 0.76 4.83

MGS is smaller than uncharted. Halo5 won't even outsell MGS5 LTD in its first year.



GTAexpert on 26 March 2015
Roronaa_chan said:
theprof00 said:
Roronaa_chan said:
 

With 20M consoles i see it selling 7M, enough to beat U4 LTD.

Uncharted? It won't even outsell mgs5

What do you mean even? MGS5 will outsell U4. So even if MGS5 > Halo 5, Halo 5 still > U4.

@TheBlackNaruto I'd say 5M

Uncharted 4 will suffer because:

  • It comes out after ROTR, leaving less room for impressing people.
  • It won't live up to TLOU; it can't.
  • It doesn't launch during an holiday period, unlike the previous games, rendering direct number comparisons inaccurate, and also causing lost sales, because not all purchases that'd have been made in 2015 will simply "move up" to 2016; a portion will just disappear and never happen.
  • It's supposed to launch in the same timeframe as SF5 and Horizon

It could be more impressive than ROTTR, and might make ROTTR feel unimpressive instead.

It could be better than TLOU, there have been many better games in the past, including one from Naughty Dog. Even if it isn't, as long as its great, fans will buy it.

Yeah this one could have an effect on its legs, but it could also mean that Uncharted 4 will get a boost in sales during 2016 holidays.

It doesn't directly compete with SFV, and Sony is unlikely to release it with Horizon. If they do it will be Horizon's sales which will be affected more.