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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Kirby is "Not" A Flop... Update: Rainbow Curse Showing "Balls" :)

Samus Aran said:
Tachikoma said:

Triple deluxe was completed by oct 2013, at which point it was in final stage QA prior to going gold.

Fits the timeline, no?

RC must've been in development for longer than that. The Triple Deluxe team is probably working on a new 3DS game and I'm sure some of the staff worked on both projects.

Indeed, but thats the thing, even when an emplyee is given dual shifts, or is switched between projects, theyre still being paid, so the crossover counts towards both titles.
The operation costs run from the moment a projects started to the moment its gold, then beyond if patches/dlc is needed.

So the idea that "not all the people are working specifically on that game, so it doesnt count!", doesnt really matter, its still outlay for the company as a whole, after all if the company was quitting after one game, they would be letting people go as their tasks were completed to save cost, but they dont, and the development process continues.

I don't even know why Mnementh is arguing, the calculation was a rough one based on low end average salaries, when you consider the variable salaries and additional developmental costs, its obviously going to be around that much or higher, even if said employees arent working on the specific project full time, because the ones that are, are likely to be senior staff, whos increased pay makes up for the intermittent contributions of the non-permanent project staff.

Point of the rough calculation was to give a rough but realistic "approximation" of sales needed to hit break even.



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Tachikoma said:
Mnementh said:

And still the only other option for the people to work on she offers is Boxboy?

Oh right, yeah, they totally needed to take people off of primary projects for virtual console releases, silly me.

Kirby Triple Deluxe and Super Smash Bros didn't happen while the development of Rainbow Curse was done? Were are no unannounced titles HAL is preparing now?

Again, I do not say that RC was less expensive than your guesstimate suggests. I think it is quite possible that it did cost more and this makes RC unprofitable. But I did such guesstimates a lot in my work, and they are a useful tool. But in the end it relies on a lot of assumptions. The point that irritates me is, that you suggests this quick calculation has no bigger assumptions and totally works as a lower bound on the costs of the project.

I don't think this discussion leads anywhere though. I articulated my problems with the simple guesstimate, you stand by saying it is a solid fact, so it would be best to leave it be. In the end I think we agree that the Rainbow Curse probably is no financial success. Only that I'm less convinced that I know the truth than you are.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:

Kirby Triple Deluxe and Super Smash Bros didn't happen while the development of Rainbow Curse was done? Were are no unannounced titles HAL is preparing now?

Again, I do not say that RC was less expensive than your guesstimate suggests. I think it is quite possible that it did cost more and this makes RC unprofitable. But I did such guesstimates a lot in my work, and they are a useful tool. But in the end it relies on a lot of assumptions. The point that irritates me is, that you suggests this quick calculation has no bigger assumptions and totally works as a lower bound on the costs of the project.

I don't think this discussion leads anywhere though. I articulated my problems with the simple guesstimate, you stand by saying it is a solid fact, so it would be best to leave it be. In the end I think we agree that the Rainbow Curse probably is no financial success. Only that I'm less convinced that I know the truth than you are.

Feel free to show me where i stated it was a fact, infact I have stated the opposite multiple times in the thread, stating it was a rough estimate.



Tachikoma said:
Samus Aran said:

Fits the timeline, no?

RC must've been in development for longer than that. The Triple Deluxe team is probably working on a new 3DS game and I'm sure some of the staff worked on both projects.

Indeed, but thats the thing, even when an emplyee is given dual shifts, or is switched between projects, theyre still being paid, so the crossover counts towards both titles.
The operation costs run from the moment a projects started to the moment its gold, then beyond if patches/dlc is needed.

So the idea that "not all the people are working specifically on that game, so it doesnt count!", doesnt really matter, its still outlay for the company as a whole, after all if the company was quitting after one game, they would be letting people go as their tasks were completed to save cost, but they dont, and the development process continues.

I don't even know why Mnementh is arguing, the calculation was a rough one based on low end average salaries, when you consider the variable salaries and additional developmental costs, its obviously going to be around that much or higher, even if said employees arent working on the specific project full time, because the ones that are, are likely to be senior staff, whos increased pay makes up for the intermittent contributions of the non-permanent project staff.

Point of the rough calculation was to give a rough but realistic "approximation" of sales needed to hit break even.

I'm actually agreeing with you, you know. :p

I'm just speculating what the rest of the team was up to.

The developers of Shovel Knight gave a good insight in how much game development can cost. It's definitely not cheap, even for 32-bit indie games (I know it's based on 8-bit games, but SK would not be possible on NES).



Samus Aran said:

I'm actually agreeing with you, you know. :p

I'm just speculating what the rest of the team was up to.

The developers of Shovel Knight gave a good insight in how much game development can cost. It's definitely not cheap, even for 32-bit indie games (I know it's based on 8-bit games, but SK would not be possible on NES).

Lol i know



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Lets say each game sold to retail brings in $12 per game. (cuz its a $40 game and we know they make more than that)

Lets start off with the game selling 150k to retailers so far and workour way from there. (even digital counted as retail thugh they make more money on that obviously)

150k= $1.8mil (shouldnt be enough to make a profit yet, but its just the beginning)
200k= $2.4mil
250k= $3.0mil
300k= $3.6mil
350k= $4.2mil
400k= $4.8mil
500k= $6.0mil

Isnt this right?^ This of course the possibly extra $$$ made from little digital sales (probably be anywhere between 20k-50k lifetime) and this estimates with it being $12 per copy sold when i think the real figure is around $15-$16.

 

edit: I also think people judge way to quick, i just remember last year npd for Apr, most people called Kirby a flop there then people quickly shut up during holidays where its lifetime is currently almost 9x-10x wat it sold week 1 :)



tbone51 said:

Lets say each game sold to retail brings in $12 per game. (cuz its a $40 game and we know they make more than that)

Lets start off with the game selling 150k to retailers so far and workour way from there. (even digital counted as retail thugh they make more money on that obviously)

150k= $1.8mil (shouldnt be enough to make a profit yet, but its just the beginning)
200k= $2.4mil
250k= $3.0mil
300k= $3.6mil
350k= $4.2mil
400k= $4.8mil
500k= $6.0mil

Isnt this right?^ This of course the possibly extra $$$ made from little digital sales (probably be anywhere between 20k-50k lifetime) and this estimates with it being $12 per copy sold when i think the real figure is around $15-$16.

 

edit: I also think people judge way to quick, i just remember last year npd for Apr, most people called Kirby a flop there then people quickly shut up during holidays where its lifetime is currently almost 9x-10x wat it sold week 1 :)

Pricecuts and sales never happen?

I agree that this may work this way at initial price (although I don't knwo about the $12-figure). But later on games may sold cheaper. Nintendo sometimes avoid it by stopping production of the game (cutting sales short). Also a complicating factor is that it is a japanese game, so the cost calculation would in Yen, while the revenue you calculate is in $, so everything is affected by exchange rate.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

VGC's tracking as of late :/

In any case I don't think anyone actually meant flop in the true commercial sense, just expectation wise.



Mnementh said:

Pricecuts and sales never happen?

I agree that this may work this way at initial price (although I don't knwo about the $12-figure). But later on games may sold cheaper. Nintendo sometimes avoid it by stopping production of the game (cutting sales short). Also a complicating factor is that it is a japanese game, so the cost calculation would in Yen, while the revenue you calculate is in $, so everything is affected by exchange rate.

Then there is the localization costs to consider, too, as well as handling all the rating/certification for the new sale regions, handling shipping / paying shipping contractor.

This is why I doubt the game is going to brake even, even if it hits 500k.



We can conclude, with all the info spread on this thread, that a real flop is The order 1886... if the values are correct the order needs only to recover the inversion... sell 3.5 million copies, taking in consideration that it has no legs... so the real FLOP this month was The Oder 1886, sony just lose a lot of money on this game.



34 years playing games.