It has a good chance but it's hard. Take a look at something I posted before if you're interested:
So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).
Imnus said: So, consoles usually sell around 50% of their annual total on the holidays. So I did some very simple math to see what can we expect: |
Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:
PS4 |
Launch | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
YTD | 4M | 14M | 17M | 21M | 20M | 17M | 15M | 12M | 8M | 7M | 5M |
LTD | 4M | 18M | 35M | 56M | 76M | 93M | 108M | 120M | 128M | 135M | 140M |
10 Years LTD Sales
140M
6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M
5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M
This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.
In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over 100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.