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Forums - Sony Discussion - Can the PS4 really outsell the PS2?

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It has a good chance but it's hard. Take a look at something I posted before if you're interested:

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be around 10M (it was between 9.5M and 10.5M).

Imnus said:

So, consoles usually sell around 50% of their annual total on the holidays. So I did some very simple math to see what can we expect:

PS4
4M by Dec 31, 2013
12M by Sep 31, 2014

8M Jan -> Sep 2014
8M Sep -> Dec 2014
16M - 2014 (Total)

20M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


XONE
3M by Dec 31, 2013
6M by Sep 31, 2014

3M Jan -> Sep 2014
3M Sep -> Dec 2014
6M - 2014 (Total)

9M - Total by Dec 31, 2014


Now my actual predictions are around 18M for the PS4 and 10M for the XONE by 31 Dec 2014. Why? Because XONE sales rely more heavily on the NA market where holiday sales grow the most.

 

Right now I think it's possible to make a pretty accurate estimate of the PS4 LTD Sales with some pretty basic math, I looked at trends from past consoles and I arrived at this:

PS4
Launch Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
YTD 4M 14M 17M 21M 20M 17M 15M 12M 8M 7M 5M
LTD 4M 18M 35M 56M 76M 93M 108M 120M 128M 135M 140M

10 Years LTD Sales
140M

6 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2019)
108M

5 Years LTD Sales (Next-Gen Launches on 2018)
93M

 

This was done with considerably less momentum and longevity than the PS2, but still like a PlayStation console considering its grow in Europe, Asia (outside Japan), the Middle East and South America. If somehow Japan picks steam and/or China becomes a factor it could achieve 150M, in fact it could still achieve that, considering this is a conservative estimate.

In conclusion unless a very disruptive tech comes to the market similar like Smartphones were to Handhelds, I don't see how could the PS4 sell less than 140M, and even then it's pretty much impossible for something to be that disruptive so fast, Smartphones are probably the most disruptive piece of tech in human history (1:1 with population) and even then it took 3-4 years for Smartphones to destroy dedicated Handheld gaming. In that scenario I still see the PS4 over  100M or 120M depending when such tech arrives to the market.



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PS2 did cross 155 million mark for these reasons:

1. Its was modded and allowed cheap games to be run.
2. PS3 did bad and PS2 sold well in that period.

But PS4 will cross 100 million numbers.



Ryng_Tolu said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

No.

The only possible way for the PS4 to beat the PS2 is:

Total current console market size at least greater than or equal to that of total ps2 sales and PS4 having a greater percentage of the distribution the closer the current market size is to PS2 sales.

I.e

If TCCMS was 200 mil, PS4 would need approx 75%. This is basically the PS2's scenario

If TCCMS was 150 mil, PS4 would need approx 100%

Since PS4 is current around 50%, all else equal TCCMS would need to hit 300 mil

Keep in mind last gen topped at around 270 mil

PS4 is NOW at 50% of market, but you think that the trend will be this forever?

I think that PS4 will have 2/3 of  total market (66%)

PS4: 100M

XBO: 32M

WiiU: 18M

This would be 75% marketshare, wouldn't it? 
And Xbox One seems low imo, it did already 10M after the first year and this year and the next years could be even bigger if Microsoft continues with these price cuts.



In my opinion it won't outsell PS1 or 2. The world is in economic downturn, austerity measures throughout Europe.



I do not see how it would. It really doesn't seem possible for another home console to pass the PS2. It had the benefit of an outstanding library but also sold, what, like 40 million after PS3 launched? It was a console that was certainly going to have some legs no matter what. But it did benefit greatly from the PS3's troubled and expensive launch. That just is not going to happen here.



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I just tried my hands on the Oculus Rift VR headset while at the IGNCon held in Qatar for the first time. I had a blast with the game they had used "Affected- The Manor" as the sample for experiencing. Seriously for some with history of seizures and headaches this can create issues. But I just can't wait for the VR thing to be mainstream. Well..can't say now how much of an impact it will have on the sales once commercialized. PS4 currently looks it's on the way to reach 100 for sure.



It will never come anywhere close to PS2 levels, probably not even PS1 levels. But it will have great sales.



Dr.Vita said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

PS4 is NOW at 50% of market, but you think that the trend will be this forever?

I think that PS4 will have 2/3 of  total market (66%)

PS4: 100M

XBO: 32M

WiiU: 18M

This would be 75% marketshare, wouldn't it?
And Xbox One seems low imo, it did already 10M after the first year and this year and the next years could be even bigger if Microsoft continues with these price cuts.

150,000,000 divided 100 = 1,500,000 X 66.6 = 99,900,000 (around 100m)

 

For the XBO: even if this year will be bigger (i think so), it don't will have a massive increase, probabily 5% max 10% compared to last year, (for a comparation, XBOX is increased by 4%, and XB360 by 10%)... Considering that XBO have sold 7,500,000 in 2014 (and not 8m, VGC overtracked and we know...) i predict 7,900,000 XBO this year.

After 2015, the sales will dropped like a rock, because XBO will be around 200$ or 250$, and MS don't can make another price cut, the sistem seller (Halo, Quantum Break, Forza) will be aleady coming, the only game that will sell more XBO will be Gears, but not as Halo and the stuf Forza+QB+Tomb Raider ...

I think that XBO will sell 6,300,000 ( -20% dropped 2015 to 2016), in 2017 even worst, 4,500,000 ( -30% dropped ), and after, in 2018 will coming the new XBOX, and it will eat all XBO sales...

So, i'm gonna to say:

2013: 3m

2014: 7.5m

2015: 7.9m

2016: 6.3m

2017: 4.5m

2018: 2.2m

TOT: 31.5m... other 500k or 1M in 2019+2020, and XBO will be discontinued.

This is my prediction.



I say no only because Sony learnt a lesson with PS3 and they won't release anymore a very expensive console at Launch; PS2 could continue to sell very good 'cause PS3 came out 6 years and 8 months after PS2 release, and also PS3 was so expensive in the first 2 years that people continued to buy a lot of PS2.

So, if Sony will release another 'PS4 style champion machine' after only 5 or 6 years, no way PS4 can pass PS2. Only for this reason.

But I still see PS4 selling 120+ M at the end of its life cycle.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

I really do not think it is very probable at all. The PS4 definitely has the potential to sell as much or more than the PS1, but I do not think it is going to touch the PS2.

After all, the PS2 has a lot of conditions as to why it sold so much such as...
-Timed exclusive GTA games, as well as other third party exclusives
-Upon its release, it was the cheapest DVD player on the market
-Still plenty of incentive to buy it even after the PS3 was out (the PS3 had a rocky first couple of years)
-Backwards compatibility



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima