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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 v Wii U lifetime Japan sales.

Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:

 

Technically Wii U sold 1.6M in it's first 57 weeks, but PS4 hasn't been on sale in Japan for 57 weeks, it came out on the 22nd of Feb over there, so it's currently had 51 weeks and 6 days, we only have VG Chartz numbers for 51 weeks and it's already at 1.1M. Like it or not the PS4's launch numbers count, but even if we deduct the launch week, it still sold 800K across 50 weeks, so 200K more than Wii U did last year, with PS4 having no big Japanese focused releases, in the next few weeks that's all set to change, leading up to the 57th week of release, PS4 has quite a few Japanese focused releases, like Bloodborne, Dragon Ball, Dynasty Warriors, Resident Evil Revelations 2, Final Fantasy Type O, Bladestorm, the combined effect of all of that will not cause sales to skyrocket in Japan, if you think that's not.

 

Later this year there's a lot more big Japanese focused games, I can list them, but we all know what they are, yes PS4 will easily sell double the consoles in it's second year on the market in Japan, compared to the 1st. 3.4M is going to be easy for PS4 by the end of 2015, let alone by Feb 22nd 2016. it's actually way more likely that PS4 will hit 4 by that time next year, especially with all of the games coming out over there.

PS4 will destroy PS3's numbers when it actually has games the Japanese market wants, the system only selling 5M in it's life over there is not happening, not when it sells over a million in it's 1st year, with basically no games for that market.

 

The first year of releases in Japan were not great at all, this year is very different and we haven't been told everything that's coming yet, there's also the very likely matter of a price cut happening, which would have an enormous effect in Japan on just how many units the system will sell.

"it still sold 800K across 50 weeks, so 200K more than Wii U did last year"

It will have sold around 1.2-1.3m in 57 weeks, 300-400k less than wii u in the same period. It's also bellow ps3.

You can say the same about wii u not having many japan centric games. It has a few big-huge games and that's why it is so ahead of ps4 (ltd and aligned). Wii U also has prospects for selling better than last year, depending on how well it's big 2015 titles are received.

No need to discuss the rest. You are severely overestimating ps4 2015 and ltd sales for japan.


You missed the part where I said last year, my comparison was betwen the sales of both systems last year, Wii U is on the decline in Japan compared to it's 1st year, PS4 had a great 1st year in Japan, with far better games, that are more suited to the market coming out this year in Japan.

No you can't say the same about the Wii U not having many Japan centric games, the likes of Mario titles, Pikmin, Nintendo Land, they've all been more Japan focused big releases than pretty everything PS4 has had so far, but that's changing this year.

PS4 has a lot more games that are more suited to Japan's market than Wii U does this year, a proper Metal Gear, Bloodborne, Final Fantasy Type O, hell I showed a load of games coming out within the next few weeks that will have a huge effect on sales in Japan.

 

I'm overestimating nothing in regards to PS4 2015 and ltd sales in Japan, the games will have that level of effect over there.

So far you've given no logical reason to show why this won't happen.



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Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:


PS4 will definitely sell more this gen in Japan. PS4 will have overtaken the Wii U this year.

PS4 has sold over 1.1M in it's 1st year on the market in Japan, Wii U only sold about 600K between the 8th of Feb this year and the 9th of last year. PS4 will sell at least double this year, compared to it's 1st full year on the market in Japan, simply based on the better software we currently know about, other games will likely be announced for Japan throughout this year.

By Feb 2016 PS4 PS4 will be at least at 3.4M, maybe closer to 4M by then, I think best case scenario the Wii U will sell maybe 800K between now and Feb 2016, putting it at just over 3M.

 

Looking towards the future I think PS4 could do at least 15M in Japan, although I wouldn't be shocked if it was closer to 20M by the end of the generation, Wii U may be at 5M.

Wii U sold 1.5 million in 57 weeks, ps4 will end up between 1.150 and 1.200m in the same period.

You say wii u only sold 600k over the last year? so did ps4, if you remove the launch week numbers.

No, ps4 won't sell double of last year, maybe slightly more (700-900k), meaning nowhere near 3.4m.

Your final paragraph is the most impossible thing from your post, though. Ps4 should consider itself lucky if sales pick up enough steam to reach 5m ltd.

JustBeingReal predict 27,000,000 PS4 in 2015 too...



Ryng_Tolu said:
Materia-Blade said:

Wii U sold 1.5 million in 57 weeks, ps4 will end up between 1.150 and 1.200m in the same period.

You say wii u only sold 600k over the last year? so did ps4, if you remove the launch week numbers.

No, ps4 won't sell double of last year, maybe slightly more (700-900k), meaning nowhere near 3.4m.

Your final paragraph is the most impossible thing from your post, though. Ps4 should consider itself lucky if sales pick up enough steam to reach 5m ltd.

JustBeingReal predict 27,000,000 PS4 in 2015 too...

 

27M is a 2015 sales possibility if PS4 gets GT7, other exclusives we haven't yet had announced and a price cut down to $299 at some point this year, along with the games we've had announced for this year already.

Considering the system did 14.1M with the games it had last year, the price point it had and 3rd party preference, better indies than the competition, it's highly likely vastly improved sales figures will happen with what we know is definitely coming out.

3rd party games look a lot more compelling in 2015 compared to last year.

Last year there was Infamous Second Son and Driveclub for big AAA exclusives and First Light as an add-on.

This year there's The Order, Bloodborne, Ratchet & Clank, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, Uncharted 4, Deep Down, Let it Die, Fat Princess Adventures, Drawn to Death, Killstrain and Sony's already confirmed they have more exclusives to announce for this year, that's a much better line-up than what we had in 2014 and 2013 combined.

There's also Rime, WiLD, Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, Tomorrow Children and Alienation, which look very good, along with the as yet unshown Shadow of the Beast, Sony likely has more indies to announce for 2015 too.

Persona 5, Dragon Quest Heroes seem to be exclusive in the west.

No Man's Sky and Hellblade for timed exclusives

 

I did say that based on what we know to be coming out at least a 50% improvement in sales is likely. So 21.15M with what's been announced, expecting a price cut from $399, to $299, GT7 and more AAA excluisves, more 3rd party and bigger indies to do nothing to push that up much higher is pretty ridiculous.

Selling 27M is a 91% increase compared to 2014, not really ridiculous if everything above I mentioned happens, but unlikely if some stuff doesn't.



JustBeingReal said:


You missed the part where I said last year, my comparison was betwen the sales of both systems last year, Wii U is on the decline in Japan compared to it's 1st year, PS4 had a great 1st year in Japan, with far better games, that are more suited to the market coming out this year in Japan.

No you can't say the same about the Wii U not having many Japan centric games, the likes of Mario titles, Pikmin, Nintendo Land, they've all been more Japan focused big releases than pretty everything PS4 has had so far, but that's changing this year.

PS4 has a lot more games that are more suited to Japan's market than Wii U does this year, a proper Metal Gear, Bloodborne, Final Fantasy Type O, hell I showed a load of games coming out within the next few weeks that will have a huge effect on sales in Japan.

 

I'm overestimating nothing in regards to PS4 2015 and ltd sales in Japan, the games will have that level of effect over there.

So far you've given no logical reason to show why this won't happen.

Wii U's decline is lo little that any increase will make it go up yoy. And ps4 didn't have a great first year, it was terrible, with sales bellow ps3.

Keeping the current pace of 20k weekly (wich is improbable, it's more likely to go down), it will take untill the end of april to match the first week of sales (300k). after that, it would reach 800k for the year at the end of october and maybe get another 400k on november+ december. that's 1.2 millino for the year and 2.2 million ltd by the end of 2015 IF sales keep up. you are the one predicting 100% more at minimum, without giving any logical reason.



Bravo wii u



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Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:


You missed the part where I said last year, my comparison was betwen the sales of both systems last year, Wii U is on the decline in Japan compared to it's 1st year, PS4 had a great 1st year in Japan, with far better games, that are more suited to the market coming out this year in Japan.

No you can't say the same about the Wii U not having many Japan centric games, the likes of Mario titles, Pikmin, Nintendo Land, they've all been more Japan focused big releases than pretty everything PS4 has had so far, but that's changing this year.

PS4 has a lot more games that are more suited to Japan's market than Wii U does this year, a proper Metal Gear, Bloodborne, Final Fantasy Type O, hell I showed a load of games coming out within the next few weeks that will have a huge effect on sales in Japan.

 

I'm overestimating nothing in regards to PS4 2015 and ltd sales in Japan, the games will have that level of effect over there.

So far you've given no logical reason to show why this won't happen.

Wii U's decline is lo little that any increase will make it go up yoy. And ps4 didn't have a great first year, it was terrible, with sales bellow ps3.

Keeping the current pace of 20k weekly (wich is improbable, it's more likely to go down), it will take untill the end of april to match the first week of sales (300k). after that, it would reach 800k for the year at the end of october and maybe get another 400k on november+ december. that's 1.2 millino for the year and 2.2 million ltd by the end of 2015 IF sales keep up. you are the one predicting 100% more at minimum, without giving any logical reason.


What are you talking about? PS4 destroyed Wii U's sales in Japan last year, it's only behind PS3's first year because it had no big releases suited for the market, considering 2015's line-up of games is massively bigger it will most definitely have a huge sales increase in Japan.

Wii U's 1st year isn't much better than PS4's, it's 1.1 vs 1.2 and Wii U had bigger games, PS4 hadn't nothing big, yet it still came close to Wii U's 1st year numbers.

 

I gave a bunch of logical reasons for why PS4's sales will increase that much, Dragon Quest Heroes being one, that game's enormous over there, Metal Gear is another, PS4 will be the only home console that matters when those games come out over there, you ignoring logic doesn't make for an absence of logic.

Don't forget the games I listed coming within your timespan, Bloodborne, Dragon Ball, Dynasty Warriors, Resident Evil Revelations 2, Final Fantasy Type O, Bladestorm, they're all coming out by the end of that 57 week timespan you gave, if you think they'll have no effect in Japan you're sorely mistaken.

Lack of games in 2014 in Japan=1.1M sales for PS4, actual big comes coming to Japan in 2015=big sales improvement, 2X2014 easy, likely well beyond that.

 

What's coming for Wii U this year that will cause some huge sales boost this year? There's nothing as big as Smash or MK8 coming out this year on Wii U in Japan, those were 2014 games.



JustBeingReal said:
Materia-Blade said:

Wii U's decline is lo little that any increase will make it go up yoy. And ps4 didn't have a great first year, it was terrible, with sales bellow ps3.

Keeping the current pace of 20k weekly (wich is improbable, it's more likely to go down), it will take untill the end of april to match the first week of sales (300k). after that, it would reach 800k for the year at the end of october and maybe get another 400k on november+ december. that's 1.2 millino for the year and 2.2 million ltd by the end of 2015 IF sales keep up. you are the one predicting 100% more at minimum, without giving any logical reason.


What are you talking about? PS4 destroyed Wii U's sales in Japan last year, it's only behind PS3's first year because it had no big releases suited for the market, considering 2015's line-up of games is massively bigger it will most definitely have a huge sales increase in Japan.

Wii U's 1st year isn't much better than PS4's, it's 1.1 vs 1.2 and Wii U had bigger games, PS4 hadn't nothing big, yet it still came close to Wii U's 1st year numbers.

 

I gave a bunch of logical reasons for why PS4's sales will increase that much, Dragon Quest Heroes being one, that game's enormous over there, Metal Gear is another, PS4 will be the only home console that matters when those games come out over there, you ignoring logic doesn't make for an absence of logic.

Don't forget the games I listed coming within your timespan, Bloodborne, Dragon Ball, Dynasty Warriors, Resident Evil Revelations 2, Final Fantasy Type O, Bladestorm, they're all coming out by the end of that 57 week timespan you gave, if you think they'll have no effect in Japan you're sorely mistaken.

Lack of games in 2014 in Japan=1.1M sales for PS4, actual big comes coming to Japan in 2015=big sales improvement, 2X2014 easy, likely well beyond that.

 

What's coming for Wii U this year that will cause some huge sales boost this year? There's nothing as big as Smash or MK8 coming out this year on Wii U in Japan, those were 2014 games.

Ps4 sales didn't destroy anything last year and are quite behind wii u in aligned numbers, as I said multiple times.

Dragon quest is enourmoes, dragon quest heroes isn't. It will give a quick boost and that's that.

You are still ignoring that ps4 sold 320k in it's first week, meaning it only sold 700k for the rest of 2014. Right now it hasn't even reached the 320k of launch week when aligning yoy sales. It can certainly end UP yoy but not much.

As for wii u, there is smash and mario kart already out, wich has impact especially on holidays. releases include mario party, xenoblade, yoshi, zelda, star fox, splatoon, rodea, possibly animal crossing... many of those games are guaranteed to sell several hundred thousands while others are debatable, but so are most of the games you listed for ps4. People may also be waiting for the xenoblade bundle, wich is causing a temporary decrease in the weekly numbers.



Materia-Blade said:
JustBeingReal said:


What are you talking about? PS4 destroyed Wii U's sales in Japan last year, it's only behind PS3's first year because it had no big releases suited for the market, considering 2015's line-up of games is massively bigger it will most definitely have a huge sales increase in Japan.

Wii U's 1st year isn't much better than PS4's, it's 1.1 vs 1.2 and Wii U had bigger games, PS4 hadn't nothing big, yet it still came close to Wii U's 1st year numbers.

 

I gave a bunch of logical reasons for why PS4's sales will increase that much, Dragon Quest Heroes being one, that game's enormous over there, Metal Gear is another, PS4 will be the only home console that matters when those games come out over there, you ignoring logic doesn't make for an absence of logic.

Don't forget the games I listed coming within your timespan, Bloodborne, Dragon Ball, Dynasty Warriors, Resident Evil Revelations 2, Final Fantasy Type O, Bladestorm, they're all coming out by the end of that 57 week timespan you gave, if you think they'll have no effect in Japan you're sorely mistaken.

Lack of games in 2014 in Japan=1.1M sales for PS4, actual big comes coming to Japan in 2015=big sales improvement, 2X2014 easy, likely well beyond that.

 

What's coming for Wii U this year that will cause some huge sales boost this year? There's nothing as big as Smash or MK8 coming out this year on Wii U in Japan, those were 2014 games.

Ps4 sales didn't destroy anything last year and are quite behind wii u in aligned numbers, as I said multiple times.

Dragon quest is enourmoes, dragon quest heroes isn't. It will give a quick boost and that's that.

You are still ignoring that ps4 sold 320k in it's first week, meaning it only sold 700k for the rest of 2014. Right now it hasn't even reached the 320k of launch week when aligning yoy sales. It can certainly end UP yoy but not much.

As for wii u, there is smash and mario kart already out, wich has impact especially on holidays. releases include mario party, xenoblade, yoshi, zelda, star fox, splatoon, rodea, possibly animal crossing... many of those games are guaranteed to sell several hundred thousands while others are debatable, but so are most of the games you listed for ps4. People may also be waiting for the xenoblade bundle, wich is causing a temporary decrease in the weekly numbers.


Well actually PS4 destroyed Wii U for sales in Japan and everything else worldwide in 2014, because PS4 sold 14,020,685 between the 4th Jan 2014 to the 3rd of 2014, 3DS did 9,687,334, so PS4 sold 4,333,351 more globally than even the 3DS, it outsold every other console by an even bigger margin, that would be the definition of destroying everything else within the same time period.

PS4 is up, sales are increasing, which is what the numbers show and as I stated all of those games I mentioned are on their way in the next few weeks, there's also plenty of other games coming out this year, way more than the Wii U has incoming in Japan.

Dragon Quest Heroes is still a DQ game, it'll have sustained sales and a good boost at the beginning.

I'm ignoring nothing, VGChartz has PS4 at 1,089,117 for 51 weeks of sales, with the 52nd not being published yet, it sold 319,689 at launch in Japan, that means it's done 769,428 for 50 weeks of sales, the sales for the 15th to the 21st of Feb aren't yet known, but you're still majorly low-balling the figures to suit your agenda. The system has sold more than it did at launch throughout the rest of it's sales time, so I don't get your point.

 

The games we know about that are coming for Wii U aren't really huge sellers in Japan, not like Final Fantasy XV could be and it's seeming more and more likely that game is coming out this year.

Metal Gear 5 is coming out September 1st, I obviously mentioned all of those games coming in the next few weeks, GT7 will probably end up a 2015 release, Level 5 has a PS4 exclusive in development that they're going to announce at E3, which could very well come out in 2015 or at least release within the PS4's 2nd year in Japan.

Dragon's Dogma Online, Deep Down, Let it Die, overall there's a lot more games coming to PS4 for Japan, that add up to a likely far bigger sales boost than you're giving them credit for. PS4 will sell more than 2.2M in Japan this year, simply by virtue the games that are confirmed for Japan.

The fact the PS4 has been doing as well as it has, selling 3X the amount most weeks in Japan compared to Wii U only supports that sales will sky rocket when the games suited to the market start releasing over there, we have confirmed release dates for a load of games and it's known more are definitely coming out over there this year and as is customary for Playstation once that starts happening it doesn't stop throughout the whole generation.

 

It's not like PS4 has one or two games confirmed and there will be months of drought in games releases in Japan, it's constant throughout this year and that isn't going to end with what we currently have confirmed, more will be confirmed later.

If you think Wii U is going to surpass PS4 in sales in Japan, you haven't looked at the facts.



How is it that PS3 and Wii U can sell better in their first year and be greatly criticized, yet PS4 sells slower. Than both and everybody congratulates it?



Hiku said:
Materia-Blade said:

Your AC 4 example only proves my point. There's nothing missing besides rain, wich is because of lacking effort since many wii u games are superior than the ps4 version of AC 4.

Yes, everyone knows the real reason why games skips wii u (it's not hardware), even the ones who say otherwise.

you still don't seem to understand that Wii U's memory works with edram.

Of course dedicated console exclusives tend to look better than cross gen titles. That was my point. If WiiU can't even handle a cross gen title (a game that's not very demanding) without sacrificing assets (besides the rain itself being gone, the effect of the water bouncing off of the pirate is gone, and there are so many missing branches, leaves and twigs on the trees that they became see-through. And those were only a few examples. Several more differences exist.) on top of already having lower resolution, polygon count and textures, then it's certainly going to have a much tougher time handling games optimised for PS4/XBO to anywhere near that level.
There's a reason WiiU hasn't gotten a single PS4/XBO port that's not cross gen.

And I guess everyone says otherwise then, because that's what is constantly cited as one of the main reasons along with instal base. I did ask you for your theory, but instead I get cop outs.

And the EDRAM is tiny in size, meaning it has to be managed very skilfully by developers to get the most from. Either way, that's not going to make up for the differences in performance. One single unified pool of GDDR5 RAM however is very fast and easy to use.
There's way more issues than the RAM though. CPU with lower clockspeed and a lot fewer cores means a lot fewer simultaneous tasks are possible. A GPU with only 0.352 Teraflops is over 500% slower than the GPU in PS4, etc.
All these things amount to why WiiU is generally not considered a real 8 gen console, but closer to PS3/360 than to PS4/XBO.

Why do you think Kingdom Hearts 3 wasn't announced for WiiU? With all the Disney characters, it seems like a great match for the console. And yet they even chose Xbox One over WiiU...

The wii u manages cross gen games better than that, the developers simply didn't  try enough for that to happen.

You clearly don't know what edram does if you mention 32mb as being little. clockspeed and cores are nearly meaninless, showing again you don't understand the subject. there are plenty of other factor, like the pipeline, to determine cpu power.

"A GPU with only 0.352 Teraflops is over 500% slower than the GPU in PS4"

Whats the relevance of that, since Wii U's gpu isn't 0.35 tflops?

"There's a reason WiiU hasn't gotten a single PS4/XBO port that's not cross gen. "

The reason is bribery.

"Why do you think Kingdom Hearts 3 wasn't announced for WiiU? With all the Disney characters, it seems like a great match for the console. And yet they even chose Xbox One over WiiU"

Same as above, Square didn't "choose".