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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

thranx said:
generic-user-1 said:
thranx said:
Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

Misleading data. our unemployment numbers as released by the government are not accurate. Better to look at labor participation rate (the actual number of peple not working vs working) which is at an all time low last I remember. We will not go from strength to strength. We will be luky to limp along with the rest of the world. The business climate over here is horrible, to much red tape and regulation is strangling off new business and start ups.


its not to much regulation, its just badly made regulation.  we in germany regulate every fuckn piece of a product. but its made in a working manner, so it makes products better(like cars or watches, or beer)

Its too much regulation.

so, which regulation is too much?



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generic-user-1 said:
thranx said:
generic-user-1 said:
thranx said:
Kerotan said:
mai said:

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 

Misleading data. our unemployment numbers as released by the government are not accurate. Better to look at labor participation rate (the actual number of peple not working vs working) which is at an all time low last I remember. We will not go from strength to strength. We will be luky to limp along with the rest of the world. The business climate over here is horrible, to much red tape and regulation is strangling off new business and start ups.


its not to much regulation, its just badly made regulation.  we in germany regulate every fuckn piece of a product. but its made in a working manner, so it makes products better(like cars or watches, or beer)

Its too much regulation.

so, which regulation is too much?


obamacare is a good start, the epa also. Over regulation has made it to costly to start new businesses in many fields. It means less compitition from business so less progress. but it really depends on where you live and what feild of business or product. Regulation tends to be specific, probably why there is so much of it. From local city and county ordinaces, from state regultaion, to federal regulation. There is a reason that business are failing and new ones aren't opening up. Her are some articles that go more in depth than i can.

 

http://smallbiztrends.com/2015/01/rising-small-business-regulation.html

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/05/08/Overregulation-Killing-America-s-Can-Do-Spirit

http://www.economist.com/node/21547789

For the labor participation rate

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/628-labor-force-participation-has-hovered-near-37-year-low-11-months



thranx said:


obamacare is a good start, the epa also. Over regulation has made it to costly to start new businesses in many fields. It means less compitition from business so less progress. but it really depends on where you live and what feild of business or product. Regulation tends to be specific, probably why there is so much of it. From local city and county ordinaces, from state regultaion, to federal regulation. There is a reason that business are failing and new ones aren't opening up. Her are some articles that go more in depth than i can.

 

http://smallbiztrends.com/2015/01/rising-small-business-regulation.html

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/05/08/Overregulation-Killing-America-s-Can-Do-Spirit

http://www.economist.com/node/21547789

For the labor participation rate

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/628-labor-force-participation-has-hovered-near-37-year-low-11-months

obamacare is a joke, universal healthcare light.  and the epa is bad at regulating, not harsh.  

you can build a chemical plant next to a freshwater reservoir. thats a freaking joke.

northern europe has realy hard regulations, a realy universal healthcare, 48hrs/week max, high taxes, high wages, next to none venture capital, but it works well.

 

and the labor participation in the us is so low because you have way to much disabled people, maybe obamacare isnt so bad after all...



generic-user-1 said:
thranx said:
 


obamacare is a good start, the epa also. Over regulation has made it to costly to start new businesses in many fields. It means less compitition from business so less progress. but it really depends on where you live and what feild of business or product. Regulation tends to be specific, probably why there is so much of it. From local city and county ordinaces, from state regultaion, to federal regulation. There is a reason that business are failing and new ones aren't opening up. Her are some articles that go more in depth than i can.

 

http://smallbiztrends.com/2015/01/rising-small-business-regulation.html

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/05/08/Overregulation-Killing-America-s-Can-Do-Spirit

http://www.economist.com/node/21547789

For the labor participation rate

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/628-labor-force-participation-has-hovered-near-37-year-low-11-months

obamacare is a joke, universal healthcare light.  and the epa is bad at regulating, not harsh.  

you can build a chemical plant next to a freshwater reservoir. thats a freaking joke.

northern europe has realy hard regulations, a realy universal healthcare, 48hrs/week max, high taxes, high wages, next to none venture capital, but it works well.

 

and the labor participation in the us is so low because you have way to much disabled people, maybe obamacare isnt so bad after all...


disabled as defined by regulation. We have 12 million less people working than we did 6 years ago. That is not good. EPA is very harsh, and very bad. Can't really compare europe and the us, its like apples and oranges. We still have open immigration here, which europe is partly experiencing with the EU and the problems it has caused. Sometimes people forget that each state over here has the full scale governemtn any nation would, and than we layer the federal government on top of that. Every state has its own constitution, its own congress (law making body), its own judicial system, its own state level army, its own police, fire and medical response. Not sure how it is in most of Europe, but as far as I know its not that way. The EU is making it that way, but it is a far way off. It would be like the French making regultion laws for the Germans.  My in laws have recently immigrated from Germany and they are very shocked and suprised at how the business climate is over here. Its a differnt kind of atmoshpere.

 

Edit: I guess I can use their case as an example. They wanted to start a food cart to go to local events and sell food, being German they wanted to do Brats and other german dishes. Which is a great idea, plenty of people love German food, they have the know how and time, but I told them its not something worth doing. I said chances are they would not turn a profit due to all the regultaion when trying to get into events. I am in the food business my self and have been for 15 years. Once here they made some friends and one had a son that they were financing a food cart for, it ened up a massive failure. Made me glad I gave them good advice. To be able to sell food from their cart they needed different permits for every event, every different city (bigger cities may be divided into different areas were they may need even further approval). After all the ermits and fees it just wasn't worth it. A food cart is a pretty basic business, they planned on no employees either and it just isn't worth it. I my self would start my own business (a pizza place) but it just isn't worth the risk. Start up costs are higher than ever, regultion from the state for haveing employees is high, county and city regultions, as a small business I wouldn't even be affected by obamacare and it just isn't worth it. Sure I can get a loan to get everyting going, but is it really worth the risk? The city I live and work in has only grown over the last 15 years (southern california) but the number of places we have to compete with has only dropped. AS other pizza places have failed, no one has opened up more.



While looking through Eurostat statistics on apparently not very busy day, I went through trouble and composed everything into a nice looking charts to visualize smth I knew all along, but it might be interesting for someone else.

 

Since what we're living through is a result of artificially raised demand that doesn't have substantial basis for a growth in the real sector and therefore creates debt, it's natural to assume that we might have some relevant results if we compare actual spendings on actual goods with the production of a real sector for every sovereigh states we're comparing. Since I'm using Eurostat, these are going to be EU28 countries.

Below we have households expenses throughout a year per tonne of oil equivalent that has been spent in the same year in the industry to produce the goods said households have consumed (or not produced and therefore imported). Higher values mean you're outspending the capacity of the nation's real sector, which eventually appear in the balances as debt. Lower values mean you're underspending. Higher values mean that it is most likely you'll have to cut your spendings when the debt crisis resolved, lower values mean you either sustain your current level of expenses or have a chance to rise them (sometimes at cost of lowering exports). (It is assumed that technological level is more or less even troughout all EU28 countries, in other words same toe of industrial energy produces value with the same efficiency)

Households consumption expenditure per toe of consumed industrial energy, euros


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

And here we have said countries divided in four groups:

1) Slovakia, Finland, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Romania, Estonia and Hungary might not be industrial powerhouses but they do have their spendings aligned with their production.
2) Poland, Sweden, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Austria and Netherlands are trending ok with their spendings
3) Lithuania, Croatia, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Luxembourg and Ireland should consider to cut their spendings.
4) Italy, France, Greece, UK, Denmark, Cyprus and Malta are dead men walking, utter outspenders.

As you can see the countries that are most in trouble with their debts, i.e. so called PIIGGS (bolded), appear here as outspenders. Though the situation might get worse as we don't know what level of spending is a norm, in other words how much euroes do goods produced using single toe of industry energy actually cost.


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

Sources

Datasets:
Final consumption expenditure of households

Tables:
Final Energy Consumption - Industry
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISH



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Sooner or later all the debt we have in the US will catch up with us. What happens when we can't just keep printing endless amounts of money and have to pay our debt is really concerning for the long term future.



mai said:

While looking through Eurostat statistics on apparently not very busy day, I went through trouble and composed everything into a nice looking charts to visualize smth I knew all along, but it might be interesting for someone else.

 

Since what we're living through is a result of artificially raised demand that doesn't have substantial basis for a growth in the real sector and therefore creates debt, it's natural to assume that we might have some relevant results if we compare actual spendings on actual goods with the production of a real sector for every sovereigh states we're comparing. Since I'm using Eurostat, these are going to be EU28 countries.

Below we have households expenses throughout a year per tonne of oil equivalent that has been spent in the same year in the industry to produce the goods said households have consumed (or not produced and therefore imported). Higher values mean you're outspending the capacity of the nation's real sector, which eventually appear in the balances as debt. Lower values mean you're underspending. Higher values mean that it is most likely you'll have to cut your spendings when the debt crisis resolved, lower values mean you either sustain your current level of expenses or have a chance to rise them (sometimes at cost of lowering exports). (It is assumed that technological level is more or less even troughout all EU28 countries, in other words same toe of industrial energy produces value with the same efficiency)

Households consumption expenditure per toe of consumed industrial energy, euros


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

And here we have said countries divided in four groups:

1) Slovakia, Finland, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Romania, Estonia and Hungary might not be industrial powerhouses but they do have their spendings aligned with their production.
2) Poland, Sweden, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Austria and Netherlands are trending ok with their spendings
3) Lithuania, Croatia, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Luxembourg and Ireland should consider to cut their spendings.
4) Italy, France, Greece, UK, Denmark, Cyprus and Malta are dead men walking, utter outspenders.

As you can see the countries that are most in trouble with their debts, i.e. so called PIIGGS (bolded), appear here as outspenders. Though the situation might get worse as we don't know what level of spending is a norm, in other words how much euroes do goods produced using single toe of industry energy actually cost.


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

Sources

Datasets:
Final consumption expenditure of households

Tables:
Final Energy Consumption - Industry
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISH

Since when was the UK part of the PIIGGS? Great work regardless, how does the US and Japan compare to these figures? also if Italy, France and Co. are dead men walking how long can they last untill they're dead men dead? Also where is the debt recorded, is it recorded everywhere, or is it recorded by the government?



mai said:

While looking through Eurostat statistics on apparently not very busy day, I went through trouble and composed everything into a nice looking charts to visualize smth I knew all along, but it might be interesting for someone else.

 

Since what we're living through is a result of artificially raised demand that doesn't have substantial basis for a growth in the real sector and therefore creates debt, it's natural to assume that we might have some relevant results if we compare actual spendings on actual goods with the production of a real sector for every sovereigh states we're comparing. Since I'm using Eurostat, these are going to be EU28 countries.

Below we have households expenses throughout a year per tonne of oil equivalent that has been spent in the same year in the industry to produce the goods said households have consumed (or not produced and therefore imported). Higher values mean you're outspending the capacity of the nation's real sector, which eventually appear in the balances as debt. Lower values mean you're underspending. Higher values mean that it is most likely you'll have to cut your spendings when the debt crisis resolved, lower values mean you either sustain your current level of expenses or have a chance to rise them (sometimes at cost of lowering exports). (It is assumed that technological level is more or less even troughout all EU28 countries, in other words same toe of industrial energy produces value with the same efficiency)

Households consumption expenditure per toe of consumed industrial energy, euros


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

And here we have said countries divided in four groups:

1) Slovakia, Finland, Bulgaria, Czech Rep., Romania, Estonia and Hungary might not be industrial powerhouses but they do have their spendings aligned with their production.
2) Poland, Sweden, Slovenia, Latvia, Belgium, Austria and Netherlands are trending ok with their spendings
3) Lithuania, Croatia, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Luxembourg and Ireland should consider to cut their spendings.
4) Italy, France, Greece, UK, Denmark, Cyprus and Malta are dead men walking, utter outspenders.

As you can see the countries that are most in trouble with their debts, i.e. so called PIIGGS (bolded), appear here as outspenders. Though the situation might get worse as we don't know what level of spending is a norm, in other words how much euroes do goods produced using single toe of industry energy actually cost.


(RMB > open in a new tab)

 

Sources

Datasets:
Final consumption expenditure of households

Tables:
Final Energy Consumption - Industry
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISH

i dont get the reasoning behind this, where is the link between spending and used energie in the industrie? and isnt comparing a small holyday island like malta with an industriel giant like germany a problem too?



I think Europe is very much dependant on what Greece does (there are rumours they plan defaulting on their next repayments) but Greek officials have dismissed that as nonsense.

UK depends how the general election goes. The current situation is really dragging the value of sterling down, however that's kind of a good thing for our exporters. The problem is, it's starting to offset savings from such as the low oil prices meaning we're not getting anywhere near the same benefit from that in our economy (lower pound means oil costs us more to import as our currency is at a 5 year low against the dollar)

I do think countries like Germany need to start spending a bit more and stop hoarding (maintaining a large trade surplus) as doing this is invariably causing the Eurozone's stubbornness for growth. It's sapping the demand out of the rest of the zone meaning there is nothing to create the demand to enable growth.

Not really clued up enough about other economies at the moment to really put much forward.



RIP Dad 25/11/51 - 13/12/13. You will be missed but never forgotten.

MikeRox said:
I think Europe is very much dependant on what Greece does (there are rumours they plan defaulting on their next repayments) but Greek officials have dismissed that as nonsense.

UK depends how the general election goes. The current situation is really dragging the value of sterling down, however that's kind of a good thing for our exporters. The problem is, it's starting to offset savings from such as the low oil prices meaning we're not getting anywhere near the same benefit from that in our economy (lower pound means oil costs us more to import as our currency is at a 5 year low against the dollar)

I do think countries like Germany need to start spending a bit more and stop hoarding (maintaining a large trade surplus) as doing this is invariably causing the Eurozone's stubbornness for growth. It's sapping the demand out of the rest of the zone meaning there is nothing to create the demand to enable growth.

Not really clued up enough about other economies at the moment to really put much forward.

greece isnt such a big problem, its 400b € debt and its mostly hold by EU states.   the ecb QE is a much bigger problem, they are pushing some AAA bonds into negative yields, thats not good for the banks and will create a bubble in central europe(with a negative bund you can get realy cheap loans).

and the germans will not spend more because they like savings to much to consume on credit, and there isnt much they are willing to buy from other EU states, you just can buy so much oliveoil from greece and wine from spain. french or italian cars arent that hot, and electronics come from china.