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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

SamuelRSmith said:
Mr Khan said:

The fed keeps talking about a rate hike, but it would be moronic on their part to do so. The only pressure to hike rights comes from the freshwater economics noise machine, not from any actual market pressure. While headline unemployment numbers look good, everyone knows its because we haven't dug ourselves out of the labor-force-participation hole, which is why there's still plenty of slack in the labor market and no upwards wage pressure except at the minimum wage end (where retailers are finally starting to move because they can't get people to keep these jobs at those wages even in this economy).


The USD is going up this year whether the Fed's hike rates or not. At least, that's the bet that the banks are making.

Wow, this thread is still alive...somehow.

I don't think it's the markets. It's a combination of the world's economy as a whole slowing down, the effects of QE1/2/Twist/3 unwinding, and twenty or so central banks easing on monetary policy to stimulate growth and avoid deflation, alongside speculators.

Here's a list (source):

Here is the full list of the 20 central rate cuts so far in 2015:

1. Jan. 1 UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan's central bank cuts its refinancing rate to 9 percent from 10 percent.

2. Jan. 7/Feb. 4 ROMANIA

Romania's central bank cuts its key interest rate by a total of 50 basis points, taking it to a new record low of 2.25 percent. Most analysts polled by Reuters had expected the latest cut.

3. Jan. 15 SWITZERLAND

The Swiss National Bank stuns markets by scrapping the franc's three-year-old exchange rate cap to the euro, leading to an unprecedented surge in the currency. This de facto tightening, however, is in part offset by a cut in the interest rate on certain sight deposit account balances by 0.5 percentage points to -0.75 percent.

4. Jan. 15 EGYPT

Egypt's central bank makes a surprise 50 basis point cut in its main interest rates, reducing the overnight deposit and lending rates to 8.75 and 9.75 percent, respectively.

5. Jan. 16 PERU

Peru's central bank surprises the market with a cut in its benchmark interest rate to 3.25 percent from 3.5 percent after the country posts its worst monthly economic expansion since 2009.

6. Jan. 20 TURKEY

Turkey's central bank lowers its main interest rate, but draws heavy criticism from government ministers who say the 50 basis point cut, five months before a parliamentary election, is not enough to support growth.

7. Jan. 21 CANADA

The Bank of Canada shocks markets by cutting interest rates to 0.75 percent from 1 percent, where it had been since September 2010, ending the longest period of unchanged rates in Canada since 1950.

8. Jan. 22 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

The ECB launches a government bond-buying programme which will pump over a trillion euros into a sagging economy starting in March and running through to September next year, and perhaps beyond.

9. Jan. 24 PAKISTAN

Pakistan's central bank cuts its key discount rate to 8.5 percent from 9.5 percent, citing lower inflationary pressure due to falling global oil prices. Central Bank Governor Ashraf Wathra says the new rate will be in place for two months, until the next central bank meeting to discuss further policy.

10. Jan. 28 SINGAPORE

The Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly eases policy, saying in an unscheduled policy statement that it will reduce the slope of its policy band for the Singapore dollar because the inflation outlook has "shifted significantly" since its last review in October 2014.

11. Jan. 28 ALBANIA
Albania's central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate to a record low 2 percent. This follows three rate cuts last year, the most recent in November.

12. Jan. 30 RUSSIA
Russia's central bank unexpectedly cuts its one-week minimum auction repo rate by two percentage points to 15 percent, a little over a month after raising it by 6.5 points to 17 percent, as fears of recession mount following the fall in global oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

13. Feb. 3 AUSTRALIA
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25 percent, seeking to spur a sluggish economy while keeping downward pressure on the local dollar.

14. Feb. 4/28 CHINA
China's central bank makes a system-wide cut to bank reserve requirements -- its first in more than two years -- to unleash a flood of liquidity to fight off economic slowdown and looming deflation. On Feb. 28, the People's Bank of China cut its interest rate by 25 bps, when it lowered its one-year lending rate to 5.35% from 5.6% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.75%. It also said it would raise the maximum interest rate on bank deposits to 130% of the benchmark rate from 120%.

15. Jan. 19/22/29/Feb. 5 DENMARK
The Danish central bank cuts interest rates a remarkable four times in less than three weeks, and intervenes regularly in the currency market to keep the crown within the narrow range of its peg to the euro.

16. Feb. 13 SWEDEN
Sweden's central bank cut its key repo rate to -0.1 percent from zero where it had been since October, and said it would buy 10 billion Swedish crowns worth of bonds

17. February 17, INDONESIA
Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its main interest rate for the first time in three years

18. February 18, BOTSWANA
The Bank of Botswana reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than a year to help support the economy as inflation pressures ease.
The rate was cut by 1 percentage point to 6.5 percent, the first adjustment since Oct. 2013, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.

19. February 23, ISRAEL

The Bank of Israel reduced its interest rate by 0.15 percentage points, to 0.10 percent in order to stimulate a return of the inflation rate to within the price stability target of 1–3 percent a year over the next twelve months, and to support growth while maintaining financial stability.

20. Jan. 15, March 3, INDIA

The Reserve Bank of India surprises markets with a 25 basis point cut in rates to 7.75 percent and signals it could lower them further, amid signs of cooling inflation and growth struggling to recover from its weakest levels since the 1980s. Then on March 3, it followed through on its promise and indeed cut rates one more time, this time to 7.50%



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

:3

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UK economy is picking up now and is fastest growing of the G7.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article4339611.ece



Behold. The Recovery :D

Source: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.ru/2015/03/why-is-per-capita-energy-consumption-at.html



http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

EIA is suggesting that by April oil production will practically stop growing. For those who were following that's probabably not news worthy but bound to happen sooner or later after the QE was over, oil prices went down and so did the rig count. Even in its best days shale oil rig average productive lifespan was a bit over a year before it goes into a red zone, you could only imagine how it is now!

But this's just a beginning, all the fun is still ahead of us. After many, many years of QE-funded "shale boom" a bubble of derivatives of not quite known size has been blown (it's 'Murica, you can't just do a productive work and be happy, you need to get rich fast!). So we are yet to see who is the biggest loser here in the risky game of hedging this and that, more on that in Is Citi The Next AIG? that suggests that as usual the biggest loser is the federal budget.



Personally I think the USA is looking very good. They have just come through one of the worst recessions ever. And the key to me is looking at the employment rate. I'm jealous to say the least. Oh and they fucked up russia's economy like it was nothing. Never underestimate the American economy. I hope they push through with even more reforms and grow even stronger. The world needs a strong US economy.



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Kerotan said:
Personally I think the USA is looking very good. They have just come through one of the worst recessions ever. And the key to me is looking at the employment rate. I'm jealous to say the least. Oh and they fucked up russia's economy like it was nothing. Never underestimate the American economy. I hope they push through with even more reforms and grow even stronger. The world needs a strong US economy.

Yeah, yeah, let's parade phony numbers, GDP "growth", the "utter destruction" of Russian economy, "healthy" stock market thanks to buybacks, M&As, LBOs and other crap that ups capitalization and have nothing to do with actual productive activity. Whatever media is craming down our throats.

Let's do not talk about the shale, the leading job-creating sector in the economy for all past years.

 

Oh, oh, I know what the world needs! Here's a press-release:

"From the leading brand of the debt-making industry and the creator of an irreplaceable IOU, now presenting... a GFY (Go F**k Yourself), a new series of innovative products that will create jobs and ultimately save the world economy. GFYs are specifically made for european and asian markets, and especially popular among women thanks to their sleek design and black rubber skin. Do not miss, buy now! Call 555-GOFY. Stock is limited. (No warranty, no returns accepted.)

FedRes Inc., 2015"

 

Jokes aside, spare me from the recovery stuff, there'll be no recovery in conventional sense of the word. I gave my prognosis, if anyone have better ideas -- share.



mai said:
Kerotan said:
Personally I think the USA is looking very good. They have just come through one of the worst recessions ever. And the key to me is looking at the employment rate. I'm jealous to say the least. Oh and they fucked up russia's economy like it was nothing. Never underestimate the American economy. I hope they push through with even more reforms and grow even stronger. The world needs a strong US economy.

Yeah, yeah, let's parade phony numbers, GDP "growth", the "utter destruction" of Russian economy, "healthy" stock market thanks to buybacks, M&As, LBOs and other crap that ups capitalization and have nothing to do with actual productive activity. Whatever media is craming down our throats.

Let's do not talk about the shale, the leading job-creating sector in the economy for all past years.

 

Oh, oh, I know what the world needs! Here's a press-release:

"From the leading brand of the debt-making industry and the creator of an irreplaceable IOU, now presenting... a GFY (Go F**k Yourself), a new series of innovative products that will create jobs and ultimately save the world economy. GFYs are specifically made for european and asian markets, and especially popular among women thanks to their sleek design and black rubber skin. Do not miss, buy now! Call 555-GOFY. Stock is limited. (No warranty, no returns accepted.)

FedRes Inc., 2015"

 

Jokes aside, spare me from the recovery stuff, there'll be no recovery in conventional sense of the word. I gave my prognosis, if anyone have better ideas -- share.


Job numbers going up in non shale states too.  Anyway I'm not American so I'm not being biased. America will go from strength to strength over the next 10 years 



Kerotan said:

Job numbers going up in non shale states too.  Anyway I'm not American so I'm not being biased. America will go from strength to strength over the next 10 years 

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're the lucky one, Ireland is most finest bankrupt from them all. Of course, US will look good compared to Ireland. At least after all said and done, when great deal of Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.



mai said:
Kerotan said:

Job numbers going up in non shale states too.  Anyway I'm not American so I'm not being biased. America will go from strength to strength over the next 10 years 

Everyone is biased. If you're from Ireland like your profile suggests, you're lucky one, it's most finest bankrupts from them all. Of course, US will look good from Ireland. At least after all said and done and great deal of the Americans work for food and bankrupt shale oil companies are bought by oil giants, they could make this industry profitable again. Ireland, I'm afraid, will be back to growing potatos. But again, maybe it's only me, who has rather grim look at everything when it comes to the world economic crisis.


In general despite one of the biggest fuck ups ever Ireland is actually in a decent state and the future is bright.  The U S of A is in a much better position and as I said they will go from strength to strength.  Their unemployment rate is very low all things considered. 



WolfpackN64 said:
As for the EU, and more specific in my country Belgium. Austerity measures are starting to cut down the growth, job creation they promised is being undercut by other cuts and cuts in education are starting to threaten our long-term economic sustainability.

In Germany, even though the economy keeps growing, so does the percentage of people without jobs. Germany's economy will most likely collapse on itself if they do nothing to solve this major problem. The rest of the EU might unfortunately follow Germany's route.

The US, while doing great now, will start to slow down again once oil prices rise, but economically, they seem stable enough at the moment, though a long term collapse of the EU's economy might severely impact the US' economy.

Japan will probably stay flatlined, nothing bad, nothing good.

As for China, that motor will continue to run for a decade or 2 before they start having a smaller, but healthier growth, their story is far from over.

Huh that's not even close to be true? Where did you get that from?

It's been the lowest since our reunification.
http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1224/umfrage/arbeitslosenquote-in-deutschland-seit-1995/
(Numbers for 2015 only include the January and February, which of course are slower months)

Using the EU methodology we're at ~5%.