Canada will lose economic growth, and fall behind the world in till 2017. Alberta will be hit by a mild recession, though next year should recover. Canadian dollar will probably stabilize at around 80 cents till a breakthrough occurs. Not much more to say.
| SamuelRSmith said: Hong Kong is an interesting one. The country/city is basically at full employment right now, so it has that going for it, on top of that the Government now has enough money in the kitty to fund the next 25 months of spending, even if tax revenues dropped to 0 tomorrow, and the Gov't couldn't sell any bonds. But it's not all rosy, the property market is in a huge bubble which is preventing young people from moving out of their parents home, it is a large cause of animosity amongst the youths. To qualify: I live in a dinky little apartment, there's no lift, the building is extremely old and is starting to fall apart. In fact, the building is scheduled to be pulled down in the next two years. My rent? Over $20k usd per year. I'm not even anywhere close to the central districts. A colleague recently bought his apartment up in the New Territories. The NT is by far the cheapest area of HK, as it's nowhere near as developed as the rest of HK. His apartment is 600 square-foot, it cost around $700k USD. --- I'm not sure if this property bubble will make it out of this year, to be honest. If the USD surges, like it is predicted this year, then China and HK may end up breaking peg, or at least adjusting the peg. Such moves will be a negative for the property market, and a positive for my wallet (but disastrous for many retired HKers who use rental incomes as their pensions). |
The fed keeps talking about a rate hike, but it would be moronic on their part to do so. The only pressure to hike rights comes from the freshwater economics noise machine, not from any actual market pressure. While headline unemployment numbers look good, everyone knows its because we haven't dug ourselves out of the labor-force-participation hole, which is why there's still plenty of slack in the labor market and no upwards wage pressure except at the minimum wage end (where retailers are finally starting to move because they can't get people to keep these jobs at those wages even in this economy).
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
Congrats! Europe is officially in deflation. That'd be a second month in a row, which makes it a trend. The world is all the way in recovery :D
| PDF said: US will see healthy growth for at least the next couple years. It will be a good time for the stock market. |
US economy is improving, but US stock valuatios are broadly high. I'm not expecting much upside from here; a correction is needed in some segments to allow upside in others.
Over the longer 10 year term there is a lot of pressure against US equity markets due to retiring baby boomers taking money out of risky assets. A recent FED research article says there's a good chance average P/E will head to ~8 by 2025. This compared to average P/E of over 17 now, spells a coming "lost decade" in US stock market: http://thefelderreport.com/2014/12/30/the-most-bearish-bear-youll-find-anywhere-the-fed/
ICStats said:
US economy is improving, but US stock valuatios are broadly high. I'm not expecting much upside from here; a correction is needed in some segments to allow upside in others. Over the longer 10 year term there is a lot of pressure against US equity markets due to retiring baby boomers taking money out of risky assets. A recent FED research article says there's a good chance average P/E will head to ~8 by 2025. This compared to average P/E of over 17 now, spells a coming "lost decade" in US stock market: http://thefelderreport.com/2014/12/30/the-most-bearish-bear-youll-find-anywhere-the-fed/ |
I hadn't ever really considered that, but it's a very good point.
Though at the same time, the mass exit of the baby boomers from the labor force should help tighten up the labor force, which would see new employees starting to put money *into* said accounts, although the replacement rate will be slower.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
Mr Khan said:
Because they were doing a bang-up job bringing broadband to outlying areas already. |
well now it's guaranteed they won't
HBninjaX said:
well now it's guaranteed they won't |
But now laws against municipalities making their own networks are invalidated. Where the big telecoms throw bitch fits, they'll lose out to the local communities.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
there is a big chance world economy will enter a recession this year or year to come
mai said:
If CBs of all three are currently buying their own debt they're issuing how do you think this's going to end? Not pretty, it's a sign of an endgame. |
To comment myself on the whole buyback thing, this time it's about corporate buybacks. Bloomberg reports record setting volume of buybacks, which "grow" the market.
Healthy stock market, ya say? :D
| Mr Khan said: The fed keeps talking about a rate hike, but it would be moronic on their part to do so. The only pressure to hike rights comes from the freshwater economics noise machine, not from any actual market pressure. While headline unemployment numbers look good, everyone knows its because we haven't dug ourselves out of the labor-force-participation hole, which is why there's still plenty of slack in the labor market and no upwards wage pressure except at the minimum wage end (where retailers are finally starting to move because they can't get people to keep these jobs at those wages even in this economy). |
The USD is going up this year whether the Fed's hike rates or not. At least, that's the bet that the banks are making.
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