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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

What happens in China when more and more manufacturing is automated by robots?
The number #1 occupation in the US is truck drivers.What happens when self driving vehicles hit the road in 10-15 years? Plus taxi drivers, driving instructors etc will also be gone.The few with jobs will be the lucky ones.



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Nettles said:
What happens in China when more and more manufacturing is automated by robots?
The number #1 occupation in the US is truck drivers.What happens when self driving vehicles hit the road in 10-15 years? Plus taxi drivers, driving instructors etc will also be gone.The few with jobs will be the lucky ones.


Somebody has to ride with the auto-piolted vehicle for refueling, this would pay less, but it's still a job -- or they have to role out nuclear powerered vehicles.



"On my business card I am a corporate president. In my mind I am a game developer. But in my heart I am a gamer." - Satoru Iwata

morenoingrato said:
Ruler said:

Chile is only doing better because of copper reserves, look at cuba and venezuela who are some of he richest countries in south america and argentinia too

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD/countries/CU-VE-CL-CO-EC-MX?display=graph

Mexico for example is closest to the US inflence and performs not so good.

Eh, sorry, but using a graph vs. seeing the situation developing in real time is totally different.

The reason Venezuela developed a relatively strong economy over the years is because it still has huge amounts of oil. Yet the situation there is very bad at the moment. People can not get food, human rights violations are commited daily and cheap goods like condoms are sold at over $500. They are having a horrible time even with vast oil reserves. Produces more oil than UAE yet people can not get food. Go figure.

We are not talking about the accumulated GDP per capita but of the current situation, which looks super grim. Both Venezuela and Argentina are heading towards recession.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/30/venezuela-economy-idUSL1N0UE1FY20141230

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-venezuelas-economy-shrunk-28-percent-in-2014-maduro-2015-1

http://www.cato.org/blog/world-misery-index-108-countries#MY9WlA:FZO

 

Look at the top 2 countries in the misery index. And believe me, Ecuador and others are heading there by using the same policies.

Cuba is doing okay, I guess, but it is not in South America and had adopted communism for a while anyway.

Links are US media they are mostly filled with propaganda because venezuela doesnt agree with uncle sams policies, look at the real numbers venezuela is richer than other countries in that region. I can also show various articles showing bad things about mexico a nafter country which is supposed to be economicly strong yet it isnt.



BraveNewWorld said:
Nettles said:
What happens in China when more and more manufacturing is automated by robots?
The number #1 occupation in the US is truck drivers.What happens when self driving vehicles hit the road in 10-15 years? Plus taxi drivers, driving instructors etc will also be gone.The few with jobs will be the lucky ones.


Somebody has to ride with the auto-piolted vehicle for refueling, this would pay less, but it's still a job -- or they have to role out nuclear powerered vehicles.

Not ride with it, the jobs would be created in mobile repair garages and increased employment at diesel stations (many diesel stations these days are unmanned because the trucks themselves are. If that reverses, then you have, at least temporarily before the stations upgrade to automatic, a need to have a few people there to pump gas). Mobile repairmen would be needed to take calls from automatic trucks when they break down: the truck would pull over and put out a call, and the nearest associated repairman would then rush over to the scene to patch it up, like with busted tires or something.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Nettles said:
IsawYoshi said:

While that is true the government need to open their eyes and stop selling every piece of industry this country has - with exception of the oil related of cource. Norway is way to dependent on oil, some day it will run dry, or we will find other fuels cheaper (or cheaper oil elswere). We can already see that the money Norway gets from their new oil related projects are decreasing, and that is not a good sign. The government need to be more on their toes  when it comes to our industy, like REC. We need those kinds of companies as well. 

Norway doesn't have any government debt though right? In fact they have billions put away in a sovereign oil wealth future fund? Norway is best placed out of almost anybody.

As far as I know Norway has government debt. We do have more than enough money to pay it down, but we have it even so. 

 

Furthermore most of the norwegian kommunes (districts, cities) has quite a bit of debt. In 2012 this debt was equal to 45% of the incomes on average, steadily increasing. 

For those with norwegian knowledge, this is the source: http://www.nrk.no/trondelag/rekordhoyt-gjeldsniva-i-kommunene-1.10990473

 

Norway is in a pretty good situation at the moment, and the billions we have in reserve are going to come in quite handy up ahead. But at the moment this money isn't used in a good way. Norway has started to see a bit of our economys state down the road, after the oil price went down. Thousands have lost their jobs, positions like engineers that previously used to be "safe" have been laid off by the hundreds. It just goes to show that we need a more diverse economy, but  instead everything of value is sold to chinese investors.



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<anti-american mode engage>

A bit offtopic to the discussion, but only a bit since geopolitical situation is always a part of the big picture. This is quality propagandistic video, a bit straightforward to my likes but that's how it supposed to be :D

View on YouTube

Carthage must be destroyed EU must be f**ked Nuland

 </anti-american mode disengage>



IsawYoshi said:
Nettles said:
IsawYoshi said:

While that is true the government need to open their eyes and stop selling every piece of industry this country has - with exception of the oil related of cource. Norway is way to dependent on oil, some day it will run dry, or we will find other fuels cheaper (or cheaper oil elswere). We can already see that the money Norway gets from their new oil related projects are decreasing, and that is not a good sign. The government need to be more on their toes  when it comes to our industy, like REC. We need those kinds of companies as well. 

Norway doesn't have any government debt though right? In fact they have billions put away in a sovereign oil wealth future fund? Norway is best placed out of almost anybody.

As far as I know Norway has government debt. We do have more than enough money to pay it down, but we have it even so. 

 

Furthermore most of the norwegian kommunes (districts, cities) has quite a bit of debt. In 2012 this debt was equal to 45% of the incomes on average, steadily increasing. 

For those with norwegian knowledge, this is the source: http://www.nrk.no/trondelag/rekordhoyt-gjeldsniva-i-kommunene-1.10990473

 

Norway is in a pretty good situation at the moment, and the billions we have in reserve are going to come in quite handy up ahead. But at the moment this money isn't used in a good way. Norway has started to see a bit of our economys state down the road, after the oil price went down. Thousands have lost their jobs, positions like engineers that previously used to be "safe" have been laid off by the hundreds. It just goes to show that we need a more diverse economy, but  instead everything of value is sold to chinese investors.

Just checked and Norways Govt debt/GDP is 29.5%.Still extremely low.

Japan is over 400% now.



Nettles said:

Just checked and Norways Govt debt/GDP is 29.5%.Still extremely low.

Japan is over 400% now.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Align the debt and GDP numbers for the countries you're comparing , there're different debts and different GDPs.

Here's the "bankrupts club" more or less...



Hong Kong is an interesting one. The country/city is basically at full employment right now, so it has that going for it, on top of that the Government now has enough money in the kitty to fund the next 25 months of spending, even if tax revenues dropped to 0 tomorrow, and the Gov't couldn't sell any bonds.

But it's not all rosy, the property market is in a huge bubble which is preventing young people from moving out of their parents home, it is a large cause of animosity amongst the youths.

To qualify: I live in a dinky little apartment, there's no lift, the building is extremely old and is starting to fall apart. In fact, the building is scheduled to be pulled down in the next two years.

My rent? Over $20k usd per year. I'm not even anywhere close to the central districts.

A colleague recently bought his apartment up in the New Territories. The NT is by far the cheapest area of HK, as it's nowhere near as developed as the rest of HK. His apartment is 600 square-foot, it cost around $700k USD.

---

I'm not sure if this property bubble will make it out of this year, to be honest. If the USD surges, like it is predicted this year, then China and HK may end up breaking peg, or at least adjusting the peg. Such moves will be a negative for the property market, and a positive for my wallet (but disastrous for many retired HKers who use rental incomes as their pensions).



Nettles said:

Not good but it is hard to get a really accurate view of what is going on because so many of the numbers/markets are manipulated.Good ones to watch in the USA are motor vehicle sales m/m, capacity utilization rate and retail sales since consumer spending makes up 75% of the US economy.Ignore the inflation numbers and the non farm payroll numbers as these are heavily manipulated.Going by these the economy is doing OK but seems to be slowing down now, especially with the recent poor weather in the US.

Chinese manufacturing has been stagnant the past year going by the official numbers which aren't all that reliable.More reliable in China is house prices and number of new home sales, Construction/Infrastructure spending makes up something like 30% of the Chinese economy.Both these numbers are down this year which is a big part of why so many commodities like Iron Ore, Copper etc are also down.I saw a chart the other day stating Chinas total debt/GDP is over 200%, a large portion of that is tied to shadow banking loans on residential and commercial real estate.I think the next financial crisis will start in China, not Europe or the US.Maybe later this year or early 2016.

 

This is a site i always check for economic info, gives you all the important stuff : http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

I'd avoid using motor vehicle sales in the US as a measure of economic activity. Only because a very large percentage of these sales will be going to Government agencies, on top of that, defaults are escalating in the private market. People may be buying cars, but they sure as hell can't afford them.

It's like using the real estate market as a measure of economic performance in 2005.