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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

QE just seems like an inherently flawed idea to me. I think they'll find a solution to prevent Grexit from happening. Japan I'd like to think will correct their mistakes soon, but we probably won't see a reversal of fortune anytime soon there. Overall I'm extremely pessimistic about the economy however, especially in the US. If net neutraluty isn't maintained, life will suck for most people very soon. And if that damn TPP trade agreement happens, we're all fucked.



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TheWPCTraveler said:

(No poll since I want explanations.)

I find it rather strange that I don't see a lot of discussion about the economy (in particular the consumption side of things) apart from the bottom lines of the companies involved. So, I just want to ask how you think the economy would go in the next few years, and maybe the impact on ourselves.

To make it simple, let's divide this into the three regions we normally track here:

US: I don't think the economy will be able to sustain the momentum it had in 2014. The shale oil boom is starting to blow up due to low oil prices, and...I just don't think that QE is working for the typical consumer.

EU: It'll be flat and stay flat. I doubt Grexit will happen while Tsipras is in power, though.

Japan: I don't think Abenomics is working, the economy will stay flat because everyone else is doing it now.

...or something like that. It'd be interesting to see how people here perceive the way the economy is going.

If CBs of all three are currently buying their own debt they're issuing how do you think this's going to end? Not pretty, it's a sign of an endgame.

I'm pretty sure that I gave my prognosis over here already (not really mine, but smth that I find plausible like many others do) that endgame for the US will be a yoy three-digit hyperinflation, at least it's the best among other options. Hard to say when, but politically wise make sense to blame everyhting on the lame duck, in other words sometime before next administration.



mai said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

(No poll since I want explanations.)

I find it rather strange that I don't see a lot of discussion about the economy (in particular the consumption side of things) apart from the bottom lines of the companies involved. So, I just want to ask how you think the economy would go in the next few years, and maybe the impact on ourselves.

To make it simple, let's divide this into the three regions we normally track here:

US: I don't think the economy will be able to sustain the momentum it had in 2014. The shale oil boom is starting to blow up due to low oil prices, and...I just don't think that QE is working for the typical consumer.

EU: It'll be flat and stay flat. I doubt Grexit will happen while Tsipras is in power, though.

Japan: I don't think Abenomics is working, the economy will stay flat because everyone else is doing it now.

...or something like that. It'd be interesting to see how people here perceive the way the economy is going.

If CBs of all three are currently buying their own debt they're issuing how do you think this's going to end? Not pretty, it's a sign of an endgame.

I'm pretty sure that I gave my prognosis over here already (not really mine, but smth that I find plausible like many others do) that endgame for the US will be a yoy three-digit hyperinflation, at least it's the best among other options. Hard to say when, but politically wise make sense to blame everyhting on the lame duck, in other words sometime before next administration.

Hyperinflation in the U.S. case is virtually impossible unless the U.S. dollar falls out of favor as the denomination of choice in world markets (although i know you feel that is already happening, so there's that), meaning that U.S. accumulates a lot of debt denominated in other currencies, and then that this debt comes due for some reason, forcing rapid money-printing to try and inflate the debt away, which causes a sudden and massive breach in confidence.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Some things ain't looking so good in Canada currently, we have that ever looming housing bubble which really anything could happen to it at this point. CAD has been sinking down and down and prices for certain commodities have been going up. Alberta is bleeding oil industry jobs like it's no tomorrow, but it's not all bad. The economy from what I understand is doing alright minus the oil industry, we have decent growth so all in all we might be back on track in a few years.



Mr Khan said:
HBninjaX said:

How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

Not good in the US. The rich will keep getting richer due to the fed printing money. In addition open borders and executive amnesty ensure that jobs on the bottom end will be scarce. There's also going to be another bust in the housing market b/c we're seeing the same exact thing that led up to the 2008 crash. Lastly the government regulating the internet is going to halt further investments in infrastructure and is going to discourage growth in that sector. It's not looking good but the media won't tell you.

Buying into the net neutrality bogeyman, are we?

My, my.

Building pipes is expensive, if there's no profit they're going to build elsewhere. 



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HBninjaX said:
Mr Khan said:
HBninjaX said:

How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

Not good in the US. The rich will keep getting richer due to the fed printing money. In addition open borders and executive amnesty ensure that jobs on the bottom end will be scarce. There's also going to be another bust in the housing market b/c we're seeing the same exact thing that led up to the 2008 crash. Lastly the government regulating the internet is going to halt further investments in infrastructure and is going to discourage growth in that sector. It's not looking good but the media won't tell you.

Buying into the net neutrality bogeyman, are we?

My, my.

Building pipes is expensive, if there's no profit they're going to build elsewhere. 

Because they were doing a bang-up job bringing broadband to outlying areas already.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:

Hyperinflation in the U.S. case is virtually impossible unless the U.S. dollar falls out of favor as the denomination of choice in world markets (although i know you feel that is already happening, so there's that), meaning that U.S. accumulates a lot of debt denominated in other currencies, and then that this debt comes due for some reason, forcing rapid money-printing to try and inflate the debt away, which causes a sudden and massive breach in confidence.

It is happening but certainly not at the pace that would make rest of the economies immune to the "bunkrupt club" (that's your Western world more or less + Japan) turmoil. So the dozens of the final nails in the coffin of the dollar as a reserve currency will be put by the Fed itself, like it was with oil prices. If you have trillions of dollars of internal and externald debt, that joint effort of the Jesus, Yahweh and Guatama won't fix, what other "good" options you have? Flood the economy with "free" money and burn everything in the flame of hyperinflation. Yes, it'll make every American 4-5 times poorer in no time, but if well played, for example, you can achieve a hyperinflation within the country with steady or growing demand and basically a revaluation of dollar outside of it for short period of time, and then you're golden (well, not you, but people who have access to the money printing machine, but you got an idea) -- that way you can rebuild a colonial taxation mechanisms and the dollar in the way it is now. Big question if that's technically doable, since it'll require a rampant escape of european and asian capitals in the US. All political efforts should be put to guarantee that by all means possible (wars, coups, propaganda etc.), so that consortium of the chosen banks the Fed will lend trillions of dollars to (the money that'll send the country into hyperinflation) will be purchasing valuable assets at a fraction of their real cost.



Guess we'll find out eventually.



This is the Game of Thrones

Where you either win

or you DIE

IsawYoshi said:
Teeqoz said:


Don't worry, Norway can easily survive these low oil prices.

While that is true the government need to open their eyes and stop selling every piece of industry this country has - with exception of the oil related of cource. Norway is way to dependent on oil, some day it will run dry, or we will find other fuels cheaper (or cheaper oil elswere). We can already see that the money Norway gets from their new oil related projects are decreasing, and that is not a good sign. The government need to be more on their toes  when it comes to our industy, like REC. We need those kinds of companies as well. 

Norway doesn't have any government debt though right? In fact they have billions put away in a sovereign oil wealth future fund? Norway is best placed out of almost anybody.



As for the EU, and more specific in my country Belgium. Austerity measures are starting to cut down the growth, job creation they promised is being undercut by other cuts and cuts in education are starting to threaten our long-term economic sustainability.

In Germany, even though the economy keeps growing, so does the percentage of people without jobs. Germany's economy will most likely collapse on itself if they do nothing to solve this major problem. The rest of the EU might unfortunately follow Germany's route.

The US, while doing great now, will start to slow down again once oil prices rise, but economically, they seem stable enough at the moment, though a long term collapse of the EU's economy might severely impact the US' economy.

Japan will probably stay flatlined, nothing bad, nothing good.

As for China, that motor will continue to run for a decade or 2 before they start having a smaller, but healthier growth, their story is far from over.