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Forums - Politics Discussion - How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

generic-user-1 said:

austerity is wrong if you have to cut more thanjust the fat.  germany hasnt cut any government worker, they hired MORE because they were needed to make the systemn run better.  lower taxation on the other hand doesnt work realy well, the people who would consume more dont pay taxes and the one that get a lot of money back doesnt consumer more even if they would pay 0% taxes.

if you want to cut taxes, cut consume taxes, not income taxes.

 

and QE isnt working because the banking system is broken and needs replacement.  greece needs community banks, cooperative or city owned, both works well.   a real stimulus would work, but they had to break a iron law and let the ecb finance the stimulus. bestway would be green energie, that helps generating profits IN the state and not in the middle east or russia.

the thousand of small green energie producers in germany generate a lot of taxes on a local level, where the people get the most out of every € the community produces( and they dont try to evade taxes so hard because it would be way to much work for the little taxes they could evade)

It's not all about consumption though is it? America has been consumer number one for decades and that has lead to and economy who's main export is debt and has been running trade deficits since the mid 70's. While I won't get into a discussion about how necessary the government spending itself was I will say that increased government spending for the sake of increasing consumption will then to either increased government debt of increased inflation.

Governments have a tendancy towards short term gains and avoiding short term pain at any cost as a result of the elections cycles we have. If things go wrong in the future it will be someone else's problem to deal with. An example would be how during recession's, rather than letting them run their natural course and purging the weaker elements of the economy, they will borrow/print money and bail out big business, spend it on government projects/initiatives or simple give money to people they think will spend it. The negative effect of this are the increases to inflation, increases to the level of government debt and the allowance of companies that should have failed succed.

And while the banking system is broken, calling it a free market system is absolutely absurd given the level of government intervention. Banks need to stand on their own two legs without the illusion that they cannot fail so that people don't just walk into the first bank off the street and do a little research.

And Greece has had enough stimulus to last a lifetime and there shitty situation is 100% self inflicted overconsumption. They spent like their was no tomorrow and when tomorrow can a knocking they got the rude awakening they deserved. What they should do is leave the EU entirely for their sake as well as others, introduce their own currency, spend within their means and suffer through the depression they created.

Green energy is a growing industry and can thrive on it's own merits and does not need government intervention that in the case of America was a massive waste of money.



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generic-user-1 said:
the US is fucked, there are mutliple debt crisis just to break out(shaleoil companys, students, homeowner,carloans)
and most grow came from shaleoil, an industrie that cant survive if the oilprice stays below 80 for some time(they make profit at 40, and evben at 30, but just as long as they dont drill new holes)

europe on the other hand is profiting a lot from the lower oilprices, but has a lot of other problems, they can grow, but just if an impulse comes from outside.


I like that, you're hired.

 

No seriously though, you are 100% right. The other crisis is that people with kids in the US are living off of their own parents (i.e the grandparents). People with car loans of over 20k earning 40k a year. Houses with a monthly mortgage of 900 a month and property tax of 300 a month with pmi of 100 a month. Scary stuff.



Remedy said:
It all depends on the price of the oil in my country. I live in Norway, which was built by oilmoney.


Don't worry, Norway can easily survive these low oil prices.



TheWPCTraveler said:

US: I don't think the economy will be able to sustain the momentum it had in 2014. The shale oil boom is starting to blow up due to low oil prices, and...I just don't think that QE is working for the typical consumer.

But oil prices will only stay low for a very limited time. About one year if If I remember correctly. At least I've heard that they are just down because certain countries like Saudi Arabia were willing to temporarily destroy oil prices, in order to ruin certain countries like Iran and Russia who depend heavily on oil money.

Personally, I believe that the economic situation will get worse for almost all countries.

But the economy isn't what I'm most concerned about. I, like a steadily growing number of people in my country, fear that a new war in Europe might actually be around the corner, one that might easily spread to a world war.

This may seem a bit far fetched, but just remember, the doomsday clock was just recently advanced to 3 minutes to midnight (23:57) - the last time it was even closer to midnight was 1960, over 50 years ago. Even during the cuba crisis the clock was only at 23:53, so the clock is currently closer to "doomsday"/midnight than to the level during the cuba crisis.

If one looks at how most governments are currently behaving, I think it's obvious that - whatever they may claim - they do not expect the situation to improve, but to get worse. Most of them plan to spend much more money on weapons, riot control etc...



Teeqoz said:
Remedy said:
It all depends on the price of the oil in my country. I live in Norway, which was built by oilmoney.


Don't worry, Norway can easily survive these low oil prices.

While that is true the government need to open their eyes and stop selling every piece of industry this country has - with exception of the oil related of cource. Norway is way to dependent on oil, some day it will run dry, or we will find other fuels cheaper (or cheaper oil elswere). We can already see that the money Norway gets from their new oil related projects are decreasing, and that is not a good sign. The government need to be more on their toes  when it comes to our industy, like REC. We need those kinds of companies as well. 



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How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

Not good in the US. The rich will keep getting richer due to the fed printing money. In addition open borders and executive amnesty ensure that jobs on the bottom end will be scarce. There's also going to be another bust in the housing market b/c we're seeing the same exact thing that led up to the 2008 crash. Lastly the government regulating the internet is going to halt further investments in infrastructure and is going to discourage growth in that sector. It's not looking good but the media won't tell you.



SlayerRondo said:
generic-user-1 said:

austerity is wrong if you have to cut more thanjust the fat.  germany hasnt cut any government worker, they hired MORE because they were needed to make the systemn run better.  lower taxation on the other hand doesnt work realy well, the people who would consume more dont pay taxes and the one that get a lot of money back doesnt consumer more even if they would pay 0% taxes.

if you want to cut taxes, cut consume taxes, not income taxes.

 

and QE isnt working because the banking system is broken and needs replacement.  greece needs community banks, cooperative or city owned, both works well.   a real stimulus would work, but they had to break a iron law and let the ecb finance the stimulus. bestway would be green energie, that helps generating profits IN the state and not in the middle east or russia.

the thousand of small green energie producers in germany generate a lot of taxes on a local level, where the people get the most out of every € the community produces( and they dont try to evade taxes so hard because it would be way to much work for the little taxes they could evade)

It's not all about consumption though is it? America has been consumer number one for decades and that has lead to and economy who's main export is debt and has been running trade deficits since the mid 70's. While I won't get into a discussion about how necessary the government spending itself was I will say that increased government spending for the sake of increasing consumption will then to either increased government debt of increased inflation.

Governments have a tendancy towards short term gains and avoiding short term pain at any cost as a result of the elections cycles we have. If things go wrong in the future it will be someone else's problem to deal with. An example would be how during recession's, rather than letting them run their natural course and purging the weaker elements of the economy, they will borrow/print money and bail out big business, spend it on government projects/initiatives or simple give money to people they think will spend it. The negative effect of this are the increases to inflation, increases to the level of government debt and the allowance of companies that should have failed succed.

And while the banking system is broken, calling it a free market system is absolutely absurd given the level of government intervention. Banks need to stand on their own two legs without the illusion that they cannot fail so that people don't just walk into the first bank off the street and do a little research.

And Greece has had enough stimulus to last a lifetime and there shitty situation is 100% self inflicted overconsumption. They spent like their was no tomorrow and when tomorrow can a knocking they got the rude awakening they deserved. What they should do is leave the EU entirely for their sake as well as others, introduce their own currency, spend within their means and suffer through the depression they created.

Green energy is a growing industry and can thrive on it's own merits and does not need government intervention that in the case of America was a massive waste of money.

we dont talk about increased government spending to help consumption, we talk about decreased taxes to help consume.

the government doesnt even need to go into debt for it, it can increase other taxes. not every taxes hurt consume in the same way.

government checks in the mail can be usefull if done right, it has to help the consumer longtime with soemkind of cost reduction(like never, less energy consuming fridges).

 

and the banking system is broken because it has too much freedom, not too less.

the highly regulated banks hadnt have problems in the crisis and dont have big problems now. 

 

Greece had no stimulus at all, all the EU money flow back to germany and france because they forced weapon deals on them when they talked about the EU money flow.    greece had no spending problem, it had a state problem, and the EU can help best with fixing it.  the need to cut back corruption and stop the regulations that were buyed by  companys. 

The Euro will help open up opportunities after the reforms are done.  we see it allready, the prices are falling sharply and soon they will meet the european average. thats just possible because the corrupt system is breaking away.

and government inventions work fine in northern europe, why? because we have  competent government agentcies. and the government is on a much higher level than well the US, where 1/3 of the elected personal is retarded like ted cruz...



SlayerRondo said:
generic-user-1 said:

austerity is wrong if you have to cut more thanjust the fat.  germany hasnt cut any government worker, they hired MORE because they were needed to make the systemn run better.  lower taxation on the other hand doesnt work realy well, the people who would consume more dont pay taxes and the one that get a lot of money back doesnt consumer more even if they would pay 0% taxes.

if you want to cut taxes, cut consume taxes, not income taxes.

 

and QE isnt working because the banking system is broken and needs replacement.  greece needs community banks, cooperative or city owned, both works well.   a real stimulus would work, but they had to break a iron law and let the ecb finance the stimulus. bestway would be green energie, that helps generating profits IN the state and not in the middle east or russia.

the thousand of small green energie producers in germany generate a lot of taxes on a local level, where the people get the most out of every € the community produces( and they dont try to evade taxes so hard because it would be way to much work for the little taxes they could evade)

It's not all about consumption though is it? America has been consumer number one for decades and that has lead to and economy who's main export is debt and has been running trade deficits since the mid 70's. While I won't get into a discussion about how necessary the government spending itself was I will say that increased government spending for the sake of increasing consumption will then to either increased government debt of increased inflation.

Governments have a tendancy towards short term gains and avoiding short term pain at any cost as a result of the elections cycles we have. If things go wrong in the future it will be someone else's problem to deal with. An example would be how during recession's, rather than letting them run their natural course and purging the weaker elements of the economy, they will borrow/print money and bail out big business, spend it on government projects/initiatives or simple give money to people they think will spend it. The negative effect of this are the increases to inflation, increases to the level of government debt and the allowance of companies that should have failed succed.

And while the banking system is broken, calling it a free market system is absolutely absurd given the level of government intervention. Banks need to stand on their own two legs without the illusion that they cannot fail so that people don't just walk into the first bank off the street and do a little research.

And Greece has had enough stimulus to last a lifetime and there shitty situation is 100% self inflicted overconsumption. They spent like their was no tomorrow and when tomorrow can a knocking they got the rude awakening they deserved. What they should do is leave the EU entirely for their sake as well as others, introduce their own currency, spend within their means and suffer through the depression they created.

Green energy is a growing industry and can thrive on it's own merits and does not need government intervention that in the case of America was a massive waste of money.

Question 1) Is all debt created equally? "Debt" is not some monolithic bloc. Much like consumers can have good debt and bad debt, so can states.

Question 2) Where's the beef? Fears of inflation have been aired nonstop since 2008, and yet historic low levels of inflation or outright deflation plague most of the industrialized world right now. The only thing more government debt has produced is lower deflation, not more inflation. Inflationary policies are a matter of timing, switching from the angel of mercy to the angel of death.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

ArnoldRimmer said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

US: I don't think the economy will be able to sustain the momentum it had in 2014. The shale oil boom is starting to blow up due to low oil prices, and...I just don't think that QE is working for the typical consumer.

But oil prices will only stay low for a very limited time. About one year if If I remember correctly. At least I've heard that they are just down because certain countries like Saudi Arabia were willing to temporarily destroy oil prices, in order to ruin certain countries like Iran and Russia who depend heavily on oil money.

Personally, I believe that the economic situation will get worse for almost all countries.

But the economy isn't what I'm most concerned about. I, like a steadily growing number of people in my country, fear that a new war in Europe might actually be around the corner, one that might easily spread to a world war.

This may seem a bit far fetched, but just remember, the doomsday clock was just recently advanced to 3 minutes to midnight (23:57) - the last time it was even closer to midnight was 1960, over 50 years ago. Even during the cuba crisis the clock was only at 23:53, so the clock is currently closer to "doomsday"/midnight than to the level during the cuba crisis.

If one looks at how most governments are currently behaving, I think it's obvious that - whatever they may claim - they do not expect the situation to improve, but to get worse. Most of them plan to spend much more money on weapons, riot control etc...

The doomsday clock is no longer a "doomsday" clock heralding the actual end of civilization as we know it. Nowadays its more of a general read on the danger of a nuclear incident.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

HBninjaX said:

How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

Not good in the US. The rich will keep getting richer due to the fed printing money. In addition open borders and executive amnesty ensure that jobs on the bottom end will be scarce. There's also going to be another bust in the housing market b/c we're seeing the same exact thing that led up to the 2008 crash. Lastly the government regulating the internet is going to halt further investments in infrastructure and is going to discourage growth in that sector. It's not looking good but the media won't tell you.

Buying into the net neutrality bogeyman, are we?

My, my.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.