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Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Johnw1104 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Heh, I know old prediction threads like this are funny, but the OP makes the same basic mistake that I still see a lot of people making today. Namely, he thinks generation 8 will determine generation 9. Nope. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Every new set of consoles is a huge reset in the market place. Did the best selling console of all time, the PS2, lead to the PS3's success? Nope. Did the PS3's massive financial failure hinder the PS4? Nope. Did the Gamecube hinder the Wii? Nope. Did the Wii help the Wii U? Nope.

Every generation is different. Every time a console launches it's a huge reset in the marketplace. The only thing we know for sure about generation 9 is that the Switch is already successful. That already puts PS5 and Scarlett at a disadvantage. I am sure they would rather be competing against another Wii U. Instead it is more like they are competing against another Wii.

People have a habit of basing firm predictions on the exceptionally small sample size of generations that we've had thus far. The NA market is notoriously resistant to brand loyalty, for instance, seeming to hop from platform to platform be it Atari, Nintendo, sega, Sony, or Microsoft. The only consistent trend I've ever really noticed is that Nintendo tends to dominate handhelds, and I think much of that can be attributed straight to Pokémon.

Who could have predicted that Microsoft, with all the momentum they'd accrued from the previous gen, would absolutely face plant out of the gate this time around? It's just hard to predict these things as something as simple as a bad price point can derail a console.

You make an excellent point.  We only have had a few generations so far.  And yet people limit their data even further by only looking back 1-2 generations.  On top of that, people often look at the home market only and ignore the handheld market.  So while data is limited, it seems people making predictions often go the extra mile to ignore most of the information we actually do have.



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Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out.

Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement.

Simple, I talking about official Nintendo numbers, Switch at end of September was at around 23m, last year in October-December period Switch shipment was around 7.3m, this year with Pokemon, Smash Bros and holiday bundles, I expecting around 9-10m shipment in same time period, so that would make Switch 32-33m at end of year, in January-March period of this year shipment was around 3m, with big effect from Pokemon and Smash from Holiday season and NSMBUDX launch in January, I expecting 3m+ in same time period, so that gets roughly at 35-36m at end of March, and 35m is like bare minimum. If you want we can make bet?



Miyamotoo said:
Mummelmann said:

So, how will it sell 35 million+ by March 3rd 2019? It will either need a record-breaking holiday season or a record-breaking Q1 2019, both seem equally unlikely. I think the very best scenario is somewhere around 30 million by year's end, which leaves about 5 million for more or less two months (February is short, making it almost exactly two months in number of days until March 3rd from January 1st). So, 2.5 million sales average in January and February or 8-9 million sales for the remaining six weeks of 2018? The lowest weekly average for a 30 million by year's end result is just below 1.2 million, the PS4 had two weeks last holidays that were either 1.2 or above (Switch had one, week ending Dec. 23rd had almost exactly 1.2 million), most were in the 800-900k range. For 9 million, which is likely a necessary minimum for reaching a high enough number to make the Q1 sales feasibly match the 35 million+ figure, it would need to almost match the PS4's best week of last year's holidays, every single week for the rest of the year, and that's not happening. Even 1.2 million is unrealistic, it sold about 5.2 million for the last six weeks of least year and would need a yoy bump of about 35-40% across those weeks. And, as mentioned, even with those amazing numbers, that would leave a hefty 5 million for only two months of Q1 next year. Basically, even for a 30 million year end LT figure, the Switch needs to match its 2017 holidays best week, every week from here on out.

Bottom line, what you're saying seems impossible from every angle. For reference, the Switch sold about 2.1 million between December 30th 2017 and March 3rd 2018. Increasing that to 5 million or beyond is a seriously tall order. Increasing it to 3 million would be a terrific achievement.

Simple, I talking about official Nintendo numbers, Switch at end of September was at around 23m, last year in October-December period Switch shipment was around 7.3m, this year with Pokemon, Smash Bros and holiday bundles, I expecting around 9-10m shipment in same time period, so that would make Switch 32-33m at end of year, in January-March period of this year shipment was around 3m, with big effect from Pokemon and Smash from Holiday season and NSMBUDX launch in January, I expecting 3m+ in same time period, so that gets roughly at 35-36m at end of March, and 35m is like bare minimum. If you want we can make bet?

So, you're talking shipped numbers? Where was that specified? I'm talking sell through, the figures that this site has always tracked. Even 35 million shipped could be tough by March 3rd. I'm talking actual sales, not shipped. In a vgchartz thread about lifetime sales, one can assume that that's the standard unless anything else is specified.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:

Simple, I talking about official Nintendo numbers, Switch at end of September was at around 23m, last year in October-December period Switch shipment was around 7.3m, this year with Pokemon, Smash Bros and holiday bundles, I expecting around 9-10m shipment in same time period, so that would make Switch 32-33m at end of year, in January-March period of this year shipment was around 3m, with big effect from Pokemon and Smash from Holiday season and NSMBUDX launch in January, I expecting 3m+ in same time period, so that gets roughly at 35-36m at end of March, and 35m is like bare minimum. If you want we can make bet?

So, you're talking shipped numbers? Where was that specified? I'm talking sell through, the figures that this site has always tracked. Even 35 million shipped could be tough by March 3rd. I'm talking actual sales, not shipped. In a vgchartz thread about lifetime sales, one can assume that that's the standard unless anything else is specified.

Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers, we getting official shipped numbers at end of every quarter, but at end shipped numbers equals sold numbers like you can see on link down:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/



Faelco said:
Miyamotoo said:
Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.

Yes, but let's wait to see the impact of PS5 and Xbox Next on Switch sales. The sales could get lower faster than usual once it appears like "older gen".

 

And let's not forget than even the Wii had an intense but short life. I'm curious about how long the Switch will live before we talk about the next one. 

I think people are overestimating the effect that PS5 and Scarlet will have on the Switch.

By the time both launches(2020), the Switch will probably be already at the 60 million mark, so even if the Switch fall off a cliff because of the competition, its not like it will sell only 5 million in the next 3 years.So assuming 2019 will not dissapoint, and nothing seems to suggest so, I think the Switch will be fine.

But even then, I truly believe PS5 and Scarlet will have little effect on Switch.By the time they launch, the Switch will be betwenn 3 and 4 years old.By then not only will it have built quite the library, but it also will be far cheaper than Sony and MS consoles, probably will be something really close to half their prices.And as much as the Switch wont impact(significaly at least) their sales, PS5 and Scarlet wont do the same for the Switch.

And for the thrid party support, which I guess is what everyone means by PS5 and Scarlet affecting Switch sales, since they would steal Switch support because the consoles would be too powerful for ports to be even considered, I think this is bullocks.First:Nintendo is dominating Japan.So as far as small to medium japanese developers are concern, power dosent interest them that much.Second: even if both the consoles launch in 2020, the game that will be developed for them will be cross-gen, so the Switch should be safe for at least until 2021, which would mean the Switch would be already betwenn 4 and 5 years, and would have already sold the bulk of what a console usually sells.Third and most important: by then the Switch will have already have been stabilished as a console worthy of its place and name.Which means that, even if the PS5 and Scarlet are massive successes, developers would still develop game for the Switch, and not in low numbers, because the Switch is also a monster itself, and an monster with an estabilished market and audience at that.Sony and MS launching a new console would steal the thunder away from Nintendo, not completely anyways.



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Miyamotoo said:
Mummelmann said:

So, you're talking shipped numbers? Where was that specified? I'm talking sell through, the figures that this site has always tracked. Even 35 million shipped could be tough by March 3rd. I'm talking actual sales, not shipped. In a vgchartz thread about lifetime sales, one can assume that that's the standard unless anything else is specified.

Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers, we getting official shipped numbers at end of every quarter, but at end shipped numbers equals sold numbers like you can see on link down:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

I know how shipped numbers work, and I know the manufacturers supply them, I've been around here for over 11 years. You never specified shipped numbers, the thread is about lifetime sales of various platforms and it's on vgchartz, which has its own sales charts, the default discussion topic would then be sold to customers as per the front page. That's sort of the point of this place. Around holidays and during clearance sales, shipped figures tell only part of the story.

"Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers" again; that has to be specified. The OP makes no mention of shipped figures and the general discussion in the thread is about whether or not any one console will outsell the PSP. You have to be more clear, unless you changed your mind once you did the math and then insisted on shipped numbers instead, of course.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:

Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers, we getting official shipped numbers at end of every quarter, but at end shipped numbers equals sold numbers like you can see on link down:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

I know how shipped numbers work, and I know the manufacturers supply them, I've been around here for over 11 years. You never specified shipped numbers, the thread is about lifetime sales of various platforms and it's on vgchartz, which has its own sales charts, the default discussion topic would then be sold to customers as per the front page. That's sort of the point of this place. Around holidays and during clearance sales, shipped figures tell only part of the story.

"Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers" again; that has to be specified. The OP makes no mention of shipped figures and the general discussion in the thread is about whether or not any one console will outsell the PSP. You have to be more clear, unless you changed your mind once you did the math and then insisted on shipped numbers instead, of course.

First for me is far more logical to compare official numbers instead VGHCHZ tracked numbers that are constantly getting adjusted, also its far more easier to predict and track Switch shipped numbers because we are getting offciall numbers for them regular basis. Second, I dont think its big difference when we comparing PSP numbers in any case because PSP is not producing and selling any more in any case, with official ship numbers for Switch, because like I wrote, ship numbers at end eaquels sold numbers in any case, like you can see for instance on examples of Wii and DS from link down and VGHCHZ numbers for those consoles (its same number). Also, keep in mind that shipped numbers means sold to retailers consoles, so Nintendo sold them in any case.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/



Miyamotoo said:
Mummelmann said:

I know how shipped numbers work, and I know the manufacturers supply them, I've been around here for over 11 years. You never specified shipped numbers, the thread is about lifetime sales of various platforms and it's on vgchartz, which has its own sales charts, the default discussion topic would then be sold to customers as per the front page. That's sort of the point of this place. Around holidays and during clearance sales, shipped figures tell only part of the story.

"Shipped numbers are only official numbers we are getting, so of course I talking about shipped numbers" again; that has to be specified. The OP makes no mention of shipped figures and the general discussion in the thread is about whether or not any one console will outsell the PSP. You have to be more clear, unless you changed your mind once you did the math and then insisted on shipped numbers instead, of course.

First for me is far more logical to compare official numbers instead VGHCHZ tracked numbers that are constantly getting adjusted, also its far more easier to predict and track Switch shipped numbers because we are getting offciall numbers for them regular basis. Second, I dont think its big difference when we comparing PSP numbers in any case because PSP is not producing and selling any more in any case, with official ship numbers for Switch, because like I wrote, ship numbers at end eaquels sold numbers in any case, like you can see for instance on examples of Wii and DS from link down and VGHCHZ numbers for those consoles (its same number). Also, keep in mind that shipped numbers means sold to retailers consoles, so Nintendo sold them in any case.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

Once more; I know what shipped means, the point is that this was never specified.

In some cases, the difference can be vast, the Wii U was selling on its initial shipment one whole year after release. I know, I know, this isn't the Wii U, but it suggest that shipped numbers don't tell us what we need to know short term. How many units that end up in customer hands, and at which pace, tells us of the market's movement, retail orders do not in nearly the same capacity.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

Mummelmann said:
Miyamotoo said:

First for me is far more logical to compare official numbers instead VGHCHZ tracked numbers that are constantly getting adjusted, also its far more easier to predict and track Switch shipped numbers because we are getting offciall numbers for them regular basis. Second, I dont think its big difference when we comparing PSP numbers in any case because PSP is not producing and selling any more in any case, with official ship numbers for Switch, because like I wrote, ship numbers at end eaquels sold numbers in any case, like you can see for instance on examples of Wii and DS from link down and VGHCHZ numbers for those consoles (its same number). Also, keep in mind that shipped numbers means sold to retailers consoles, so Nintendo sold them in any case.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

Once more; I know what shipped means, the point is that this was never specified.

In some cases, the difference can be vast, the Wii U was selling on its initial shipment one whole year after release. I know, I know, this isn't the Wii U, but it suggest that shipped numbers don't tell us what we need to know short term. How many units that end up in customer hands, and at which pace, tells us of the market's movement, retail orders do not in nearly the same capacity.

Wii U did had more shipments after launch each quarter in any case even if those shipment numbers were terrible. Shipment show us how some console is selling in any case, if Wii U case it was selling terrible and thats why had terible shipments, in Switch case Switch is selling great and thats why we have strong shipments, at end in any case shipments equals sold numbers, especially in this case where PAP is dead and not active platform in any case.