Yeah, 80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, I mean it will be at around 35m+ just after two first years on market.
Yes, but let's wait to see the impact of PS5 and Xbox Next on Switch sales. The sales could get lower faster than usual once it appears like "older gen".
And let's not forget than even the Wii had an intense but short life. I'm curious about how long the Switch will live before we talk about the next one.
I think people are overestimating the effect that PS5 and Scarlet will have on the Switch.
By the time both launches(2020), the Switch will probably be already at the 60 million mark, so even if the Switch fall off a cliff because of the competition, its not like it will sell only 5 million in the next 3 years.So assuming 2019 will not dissapoint, and nothing seems to suggest so, I think the Switch will be fine.
But even then, I truly believe PS5 and Scarlet will have little effect on Switch.By the time they launch, the Switch will be betwenn 3 and 4 years old.By then not only will it have built quite the library, but it also will be far cheaper than Sony and MS consoles, probably will be something really close to half their prices.And as much as the Switch wont impact(significaly at least) their sales, PS5 and Scarlet wont do the same for the Switch.
And for the thrid party support, which I guess is what everyone means by PS5 and Scarlet affecting Switch sales, since they would steal Switch support because the consoles would be too powerful for ports to be even considered, I think this is bullocks.First:Nintendo is dominating Japan.So as far as small to medium japanese developers are concern, power dosent interest them that much.Second: even if both the consoles launch in 2020, the game that will be developed for them will be cross-gen, so the Switch should be safe for at least until 2021, which would mean the Switch would be already betwenn 4 and 5 years, and would have already sold the bulk of what a console usually sells.Third and most important: by then the Switch will have already have been stabilished as a console worthy of its place and name.Which means that, even if the PS5 and Scarlet are massive successes, developers would still develop game for the Switch, and not in low numbers, because the Switch is also a monster itself, and an monster with an estabilished market and audience at that.Sony and MS launching a new console would steal the thunder away from Nintendo, not completely anyways.