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PS4 LTD Sales should be at least 140 Millions

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 LTD Sales should be at least 140 Millions

So far I'm on track with my predictions, I predicted the PS4 would sell 17M this year, it sold 17.4M, next year I predicted it would sell 21M totaling at December 31, 2016 for 56M LTD.



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Could be higher, I wonder how high it might sale at 199 and with a massive batch of AAAs titles.

You may be slightly underestimating.

I believe 2016 will be truly massive, Uncharted will be first sign of whats to come.



Ttech. said:
Could be higher, I wonder how high it might sale at 199 and with a massive batch of AAAs titles.

You may be slightly underestimating.

I believe 2016 will be truly massive, Uncharted will be first sign of whats to come.

 

Yeah, I already pointed out a few posts above that these estimates are somewhat conservative, hence "at least 140 millions", given that in a really good year the PS4 sales could go as high as 25M and the momentum could be massive.

However I made this predictions only based on what we know now, there is some unknowns that could bring sales a lot higher, like VR catching on, a new mega franchise a la GTA appearing, etc.



I just want to say congrats on that 35 million at the end of year 2(35.9). I predicted that the PS4 would be at 56-57m at the end of 2016.



If the PS4 could do 10 years (I doubt it) yes defiantly, why not... But I don't think this generation will have the same leg as previous generations. I'd say that maybe it can beet PS1 total sales by the end of the 8 generation.



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BHR-3 said:
PS4
Launch Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 
Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
YTD 4M 14M 16M 17M 16M 14M 10M 6M 4M 2M 1M
LTD 4M 18M 34M 51M 67M 81M 91M 96M 100M 102M 103M

So here I predicted that PS4 would be around 18M (it was 18.5M) and the XONE would be 11M (it was 11M).

think it will barely make it past 100M with 100-110M

 

gaming aint as popular as it was during late 90s and early 2000s, i believe we'll get new HW sooner this gen and console gaming aint what it used to be in the west so stop comparing it to ps1 and 2s trends its gonna be tough for ps4 to get 20M+ ytd numbers let alone past 120M LT as seen predicted by many on here

Sony is the primary reason console gaming is as popular as it is today. Regaining dominance in typical form will widen the market back to the way it was previously. Perhaps they will relinquish  twenty or so million consoles to their competition more than gens in the past, but its settled that Sony is back in typical dominant form. 



I don't get why people think this will be a short generation. I think it will be at least as long as Gen 7. The tech just doesn't evolve as fast as in the past. CPUs a re pretty much stagnating and considerably faster GPU units are so damn expensive that they aren't interesting at all for a console. On top of that, you don't see as much difference as back in the day from more hardware power. The resolution might go up a little, the fps might go up a little, but that's pretty much it. If there was a new console in 2 or 3 years, we would be seeing Cross-Gen titles like there's no tomorrow, because every game could be easily ported to the last gen. With that happening, many many people will just stick to their PS4/X1, because why should they throw out another 400+ $ when the old console is doing just fine and is still getting all major games? It would be a pretty high risk for any manufacturer to release a console too early.

New consoles will arrive when they are needed and the most important thing for that are significantly faster APU units. They need to be at least 5 times faster, better yet would be factor between 8 and 10. An APU like that isn't even on the horizon yet and you sure as hell won't be seeing a manufacturer packing a dedicated GPU into a console. The price would be insane, same as the power usage. Not interesting for the mass market.

Moore's law is pretty much gone and that's why I think console generations will only get longer and longer from here on out. I don't expect a PS5 before 2020.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

Will pass wii and ps1 and that's about it.

If it gets closer to ps2 numbers then that would be cool but I question if it can maintain momentum for the long haul.

 

Anything is possible



Imnus said:
Ttech. said:
Could be higher, I wonder how high it might sale at 199 and with a massive batch of AAAs titles.

You may be slightly underestimating.

I believe 2016 will be truly massive, Uncharted will be first sign of whats to come.

 

Yeah, I already pointed out a few posts above that these estimates are somewhat conservative, hence "at least 140 millions", given that in a really good year the PS4 sales could go as high as 25M and the momentum could be massive.

However I made this predictions only based on what we know now, there is some unknowns that could bring sales a lot higher, like VR catching on, a new mega franchise a la GTA appearing, etc.

 

Your prediction is impressive, only time can tell but one thing. When you write millions, you don't need the "S" at the end. It should be 140 Million or 140 Million Units. Million only needs to be plural if you're saying something like, "Millions of Ps4's are selling every year". Just wanted to help. I have grammar mistakes also but would rather them be corrected.



OdinHades said:
I don't get why people think this will be a short generation. I think it will be at least as long as Gen 7. The tech just doesn't evolve as fast as in the past. CPUs a re pretty much stagnating and considerably faster GPU units are so damn expensive that they aren't interesting at all for a console. On top of that, you don't see as much difference as back in the day from more hardware power. The resolution might go up a little, the fps might go up a little, but that's pretty much it. If there was a new console in 2 or 3 years, we would be seeing Cross-Gen titles like there's no tomorrow, because every game could be easily ported to the last gen. With that happening, many many people will just stick to their PS4/X1, because why should they throw out another 400+ $ when the old console is doing just fine and is still getting all major games? It would be a pretty high risk for any manufacturer to release a console too early.

New consoles will arrive when they are needed and the most important thing for that are significantly faster APU units. They need to be at least 5 times faster, better yet would be factor between 8 and 10. An APU like that isn't even on the horizon yet and you sure as hell won't be seeing a manufacturer packing a dedicated GPU into a console. The price would be insane, same as the power usage. Not interesting for the mass market.

Moore's law is pretty much gone and that's why I think console generations will only get longer and longer from here on out. I don't expect a PS5 before 2020.

 

I agree with you, but a few thing could change this, per example if VR take off, microsoft want be parts of this and get a new console with more power to get good VR 1080/60fps and sony would just follow, or simply microsoft Xboxone start to sell bad and like nintendo get their console out earlier, i cannot see sony not follow microsoft and lets them have a headstart !