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Forums - Sales Discussion - UPDATE: PS4 doubles xbox by Sept. 27m vs 14m?

"Finds out that Halo Releases beginning of the month" :p



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theprof00 said:
kristianity77 said:
Yeah this is a no no for me. You could reasonably expect the PS4 by end of September to be around the 27 million mark. But that would still require the Xbox to sell less than 2 million from March - September (7 months!)

7 months is about 29 weeks or so, 2 million divided by 29 weeks is 69,000 per week. There is no way the Xbox will sell as little as that as an average from here until September. There will be numerous spikes to those sales as big games come out but I can't see the xbox dropping to the required number on any given week between now and then.

The reason I picked september is because that's when Halo is coming out. There are no big releases for xb1 until then.

It's currently trending at 80k the past few weeks, but that will start going down shortly.


Correct, but the xbox does have a few big multiplat titles coming out also which will help boost sales from their side.  Games like the Witcher, Project Cars, Batman, MGSV will all spark console sales boosts even if its only by tens of thousands per week, bringing that 69k per week down even further. 

The PS4 will easily strip the Xbox between now and September in terms of figures without doubt, but unless the PS4 can get to 28-29 million in 7 months, the Xbox will sell too many for the bet to win.

Incidentally, for the PS4 to even hit 27 million from here over the 29 weeks is just under 240K per week, thats sustained.  It hasn't hit that figure "yet", all year.  When you think that the PS4 will likely need 2 million more than that for you to win, thats over 300K a week from here on out in order to achieve that.  Its a massive ask lol



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

kristianity77 said:
theprof00 said:

The reason I picked september is because that's when Halo is coming out. There are no big releases for xb1 until then.

It's currently trending at 80k the past few weeks, but that will start going down shortly.


Correct, but the xbox does have a few big multiplat titles coming out also which will help boost sales from their side.  Games like the Witcher, Project Cars, Batman, MGSV will all spark console sales boosts even if its only by tens of thousands per week, bringing that 69k per week down even further. 

The PS4 will easily strip the Xbox between now and September in terms of figures without doubt, but unless the PS4 can get to 28-29 million in 7 months, the Xbox will sell too many for the bet to win.

Incidentally, for the PS4 to even hit 27 million from here over the 29 weeks is just under 240K per week, thats sustained.  It hasn't hit that figure "yet", all year.  When you think that the PS4 will likely need 2 million more than that for you to win, thats over 300K a week from here on out in order to achieve that.  Its a massive ask lol

Super secret pro-tip Editor's note: The real ask, is what xb1's numbers really are.



theprof00 said:
kristianity77 said:


Correct, but the xbox does have a few big multiplat titles coming out also which will help boost sales from their side.  Games like the Witcher, Project Cars, Batman, MGSV will all spark console sales boosts even if its only by tens of thousands per week, bringing that 69k per week down even further. 

The PS4 will easily strip the Xbox between now and September in terms of figures without doubt, but unless the PS4 can get to 28-29 million in 7 months, the Xbox will sell too many for the bet to win.

Incidentally, for the PS4 to even hit 27 million from here over the 29 weeks is just under 240K per week, thats sustained.  It hasn't hit that figure "yet", all year.  When you think that the PS4 will likely need 2 million more than that for you to win, thats over 300K a week from here on out in order to achieve that.  Its a massive ask lol

Super secret pro-tip Editor's note: The real ask, is what xb1's numbers really are.


When were the last official sales numbers for the Xbox one, has there ever actually been any "sold through" numbers recently, if at all? 



PREDICTIONS FOR END OF 2015: (Made Jan 1st 2015)

PS4 - 34M - XB1 - 21m - WII U -12M

kristianity77 said:
theprof00 said:

Super secret pro-tip Editor's note: The real ask, is what xb1's numbers really are.


When were the last official sales numbers for the Xbox one, has there ever actually been any "sold through" numbers recently, if at all? 

More importantly, VGC's adjustments bumped up more of 2014 and less of 2015, to bring their estimates more in line with Sony's cumulative totals, but not correlating with the dates of interim announcements.

In essence, the 2015 rate of gap growth may be significantly more pronounced than the current estimates purport.



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kristianity77 said:
theprof00 said:

Super secret pro-tip Editor's note: The real ask, is what xb1's numbers really are.


When were the last official sales numbers for the Xbox one, has there ever actually been any "sold through" numbers recently, if at all? 

The last official anything regarding sales was in october where they said they will be crossing the 10m shipped figure "soon".

After that, all we have are npd numbers.

We have looked at the numbers historically to see that xb US sales are 60% of total sales, which is how we come up with the current 11m. But if it's actually higher, then xb1 could either just be reaching 11m or less. It all depends on everywhere besides the US. We have no figures or confirmations. Their last quarterly report lumped 360 in together with xb1 so we don't know.

Additionally, Gaf seems to think that it's around 10.6-11m at the moment.

EDIT: I made this bet full well thinking that the xb1 numbers are lower than we think, combined with a predicted ps4 pricecut at e3 in june.



I believe it will happen. By the end of Sept. PS4:X1 2:1.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

It will close, but nope.
I believe that PS4 will be at 26,000,000 by September.
XBO will sell 13,500,000 in the same period...



Ryng_Tolu said:
It will close, but nope.
I believe that PS4 will be at 26,000,000 by September.
XBO will sell 13,500,000 in the same period...

PS4 will be at 26m by sept simply if sales hold up. I speculated an increase in sales due to various factors, and I'm hoping my insight pans out well.



kicking myelf for not making the end date "when halo 5 launches".
Origially I said September because halo was predicted to launch in early sept.
Now it's delayed by a possble 4-5week period.

Oh well.